(Nov 15, 2022 11:37 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Very preliminary and very unofficial analysis of some photos of some of the missile fragments from Przewodow Poland suggest that they might be fragments of a Ukrainian air defense missile. Obviously this remains to be verified, but it does suggest the possibility that it might not have been a Russian missile at all, but rather a Ukrainian missile launched in hopes of intercepting a Russian cruise missile. (A counter argument is that the crater photographed in Poland appears to have been a larger explosive charge than the relatively small charge on an AA missile.)
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/159...1161075712
The Ukrainians are pushing back with their usual it's-Russian-disinformation line. There's already a huge amount of bullshit on twitter about this.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/...6751434752
It doesn't matter who's missile it is. If Ukraine didn't have to defend against missile attacks then those deaths could of been avoided since they wouldn't of been shooting at missiles to begin with. So the fault falls squarely on Russia.
(Nov 15, 2022 11:57 PM)stryder Wrote: [ -> ] (Nov 15, 2022 11:37 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Very preliminary and very unofficial analysis of some photos of some of the missile fragments from Przewodow Poland suggest that they might be fragments of a Ukrainian air defense missile. Obviously this remains to be verified, but it does suggest the possibility that it might not have been a Russian missile at all, but rather a Ukrainian missile launched in hopes of intercepting a Russian cruise missile. (A counter argument is that the crater photographed in Poland appears to have been a larger explosive charge than the relatively small charge on an AA missile.)
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/159...1161075712
The Ukrainians are pushing back with their usual it's-Russian-disinformation line. There's already a huge amount of bullshit on twitter about this.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/...6751434752
It doesn't matter who's missile it is. If Ukraine didn't have to defend against missile attacks then those deaths could of been avoided since they wouldn't of been shooting at missiles to begin with. So the fault falls squarely on Russia.
True. I agree with that.
It might factor into determinations about whether Russia really attacked a NATO ally though. It might just be spillover from the Ukraine war, which needn't obligate the US and UK to get into what might very well become a nuclear war. That's what I'm worried about.
NATO has announced a meeting tomorrow to discuss invoking Article 4.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...9710812160
I believe this is the right move. Poland (probably) hasn't been
attacked, but the war in next-door Ukraine definitely
threatens them. So some kind of NATO response is called for, short of all out nuclear war. That might include additional arms for Poland and perhaps more allied troops deployed there. (I could support more US troops.)
(Nov 15, 2022 11:37 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Very preliminary and very unofficial analysis of some photos of some of the missile fragments from Przewodow Poland suggest that they might be fragments of a Ukrainian air defense missile.
Both Poland and NATO have agreed that preliminary assessments are that it was a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile that missed its target and continued on across the border. It's still being investigated, but there is no indication at this time that Russia attacked Polish territory.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/polish-pre...red-russia
Amazing how much abuse that idea was attracting on Twitter yesterday. It was denounced as lies, as pro-Russian disinformation or as disloyalty to Ukraine, and anyone even suggesting it was being flamed from all directions and being told to shut up and get off Twitter.
Nevertheless, it appears to be true. Failure to disentangle what we subjectively
want to be true from a dispassionate assessment of what objectively
is true, is perhaps the signature intellectual failing of our age.
(Nov 16, 2022 05:47 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Amazing how much abuse that idea was attracting on Twitter yesterday. It was denounced as lies, as pro-Russian disinformation or as disloyalty to Ukraine, and anyone even suggesting it was being flamed from all directions and being told to shut up and get off Twitter.
Nevertheless, it appears to be true. Failure to disentangle what we subjectively want to be true from a dispassionate assessment of what objectively is true, is perhaps the signature intellectual failing of our age.
my mood has changed from defiance and anger to one of sadness for the lost pollish lifes.
i still hope Ukraine will get attacms so they can hit those staging post airfields in crimea
saw a video of a russian drone strike on a ceasar artillery unit, luckly i think the crew survived and there was not majour damage. i think the crew survived because of the armour protection of the crew compartment which is good news for other personal using the ceaser to know it can withstand a strike
here is the video
Lancet Drone
personally i think it was a russian missile that hit polland
2 missiles at the same target
& NATO are saying it was Ukrainian to avoid article 5
To me the crater in Poland looks like the size of crater a missile intended to destroy infrastructure would make. Would an anti-aircraft missile have that much explosive in it?
(Nov 17, 2022 02:19 AM)confused2 Wrote: [ -> ]To me the crater in Poland looks like the size of crater a missile intended to destroy infrastructure would make. Would an anti-aircraft missile have that much explosive in it?
not only that but they are not designed to explode when they hit the ground
the S300 is pretty big
but it looks like something bigger than an S300 AND something that has detonated on the ground
supposedly the S300 ukraine has is designed to explode if it misses its target while its still in the air.
i suspect the polish site was deliberately targeted as civilian food infrastructure
but who ever targeted it may have thought it was still in ukraine territory
or
which ever russian targeted it wants to start ww3
Conclusive circumstantial evidence declares its a russian rocket that hit polland
Rare Footage russian cruise missile being shot down by Ukrainian air defense missile.
i dont think ukraine should try and split the front by driving toward mariupol because then they will need twice as many soldiers to defend in 2 directions at once.
thinking this would detract from them being a force multiplier with fire support
i would be looking more at medium depth high value target lighting raids
then coming back to their defensive position.
thus more forcing the orcs to try and cover more ground which in turn should offer up some more easy targets to the existing well equipped/protected defensive lines of artillery
hoping they will get atacms so they can hit those airports
keep those neptunes ready in case russia trys to send in any ships(probably wont but you never know what some random commander might do)
UPDATE
is Belarus holding ukranian prisoners of war ?
if they are they need to be sanctioned as a country as soon as possible