Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Despite the internet almost melting yesterday with frenzied predictions (by both sides) of an attack on the Zaphorizhia nuclear power plant, all seems to be quiet at the plant today.

To the west of the plant, the Ukrainians tried a small scale probing attack across the former Dnipr reservoir that is now drying up after the destruction of the Khakovka dam. But it seems that the former lakebed is still too soft for armored vehicles, so only light infantry could cross and the attack withdrew.

To the east of the plant the Ukrainian 10th Army Corps is moving into position near Stepove, where the Dnipr river turns north towards Zaphorizhia city. The Ukrainian 9th Army Corps is moving into position near Orikhiv. So if there's going to be a big battle on the Zaphorizhia front in the next few days, this is probably where it will be, east of the nuclear plant. The grey arrows in dotted lines indicate where the Russians expect the Ukrainians to attack, not where they are now.

Map by Rybar

(Jul 5, 2023 09:08 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ][...] To the west of the plant, the Ukrainians tried a small scale probing attack across the former Dnipr reservoir that is now drying up after the destruction of the Khakovka dam. But it seems that the former lakebed is still too soft for armored vehicles, so only light infantry could cross and the attack withdrew. [...]

Wonder if over time that eventually could emerge as backfiring sabotage on the part of the Russians? Probably not.

Map of current Russian fortifications, by Brady Africk using Copernicus Sentinel satellite data.

The Russians continue to add to their defensive works, particularly in the exact area south of Zaphorizhia city and Orikiv, north of Tokmak, where the grand Ukrainian offensive seems to be focused. It looks to me like Russia has gone very much on the defensive and isn't really planning to grab any more of Ukraine, but it appears very determined to hang onto the parts that it already has.

July 9th and nothing dramatic to report. The Ukrainians continue to make small gains northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, but haven't entered the built up part of the city. Zelensky visited Snake Island where he laid a wreath.

And this interesting video was circulating in Belarus, showing a column of Wagner fighters in that country. Three tanks are visible, as is what appears to be a Buk SAM battery. [Edit: I now believe the missile battery that's visible is a more modern Pantsir SAM battery.] Some of the Wagner fighters appear to be traveling in civilian automobiles.

https://twitter.com/CatEmporor/status/16...4496951296

There's talk that a new base for some 8,000 Wagner fighters is being built in southern Belarus. This is roughly two brigades worth of fighters. Wagner's pre-uprising strength was about 25,000 fighters, and Russia has offered them the opportunity to join the regular Russian Army. But word is that very few of them have accepted that offer. While some have probably simply returned home, most remain loyal to Progozhin. (Wagner appears to have great esprit de corps.) So there might be thousands more Wagner fighters in addition to the 8,000 who might find their way to Belarus as well. It's all very hazy right now.

There's still lots of confusion about Wagner and Progozhin. Progozhin's rather palatial residence in St. Petersburg has been occupied by the FSB. Lots of photos on Russian media showing boxes full of cash, piles of fake passports, many weapons, and disguises. Progozhin is very popular with many rank-and-file Russians, embodying their populist distrust of the leadership class, illustrated by how the people welcomed Wagner fighters during the uprising. The authorities and media appear to be trying to combat that by portraying him as a corrupt warlord (which might not be all that far from the truth).

But Progozhin appears to currently be in Russia and hasn't been arrested. His personal status is very unclear. Two private jets that he owns have been observed flying back and forth between Moscow, St. Petersburg and Minsk repeatedly, but it isn't clear who was in them.

My impression is that it's... complicated. Progozhin and Putin know each other and may still be friends. I think that they share distrust and dislike for the General Staff. After all, the generals promised Putin an almost bloodless victory in just a week, when Putin ordered the February 2022 invasion, and Putin can't be pleased by the incompetence his military leadership displayed. It put him in a very bad spot and weakened him tremendously, so Putin's naturally going to be quite sympathetic to Progozhin's criticism of the generals. But an armed uprising is something that Putin can't tolerate.

But Putin doesn't want to destroy Wagner either, since he still needs it. It's still Russia's best fighting force. What's more, it gives Putin leverage against the Defense Ministry, both in making it more combat-effective and perhaps even in deterring a coup.

So my guess (that's all that it can be) is that Putin will protect Progozhin, while simultaneously trying to knock him down a peg or two. Moving his forces to Belarus might be a good way to do that. It removes them from Russia and from direct confrontation with the Ministry of Defence, while keeping them close at hand in case he needs them. After a cooling off period, I expect Moscow to once again use them in the Ukraine war somehow.

Today Sunday July 9, the big news seems to be an attempted strike on the Kerch bridge (connecting Crimea with southern Russia) using British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. "A number" of these powerful large-warhead cruise missiles were fired, but reportedly all were successfully shot down by Russian Pantsir SAMs. (The Russians are claiming this and Ukrainian sources admit it, saying that they will have better results next time.) Traffic on the bridge was halted while the engagement was happening, but traffic has reportedly resumed.

(Jul 9, 2023 11:24 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Today Sunday July 9, the big news seems to be an attempted strike on the Kerch bridge (connecting Crimea with southern Russia) using British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. "A number" of these powerful large-warhead cruise missiles were fired, but reportedly all were successfully shot down by Russian Pantsir SAMs. (The Russians are claiming this and Ukrainian sources admit it, saying that they will have better results next time.) Traffic on the bridge was halted while the engagement was happening, but traffic has reportedly resumed.

fake news
storm shadow cant reach that far.

(Jul 10, 2023 05:25 AM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]

(Jul 9, 2023 11:24 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Today Sunday July 9, the big news seems to be an attempted strike on the Kerch bridge (connecting Crimea with southern Russia) using British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. "A number" of these powerful large-warhead cruise missiles were fired, but reportedly all were successfully shot down by Russian Pantsir SAMs. (The Russians are claiming this and Ukrainian sources admit it, saying that they will have better results next time.) Traffic on the bridge was halted while the engagement was happening, but traffic has reportedly resumed.

fake news
storm shadow cant reach that far.

Hi RU

Wikipedia seems to think that Storm Shadows have an effective range of 550km/340mi. If that's true, they could reach the Kerch bridge from much of eastern Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

(Jul 10, 2023 06:39 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]

(Jul 10, 2023 05:25 AM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]

(Jul 9, 2023 11:24 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Today Sunday July 9, the big news seems to be an attempted strike on the Kerch bridge (connecting Crimea with southern Russia) using British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. "A number" of these powerful large-warhead cruise missiles were fired, but reportedly all were successfully shot down by Russian Pantsir SAMs. (The Russians are claiming this and Ukrainian sources admit it, saying that they will have better results next time.) Traffic on the bridge was halted while the engagement was happening, but traffic has reportedly resumed.

fake news
storm shadow cant reach that far.

Hi RU

Wikipedia seems to think that Storm Shadows have an effective range of 550km/340mi. If that's true, they could reach the Kerch bridge from much of eastern Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

The Storm Shadow Missiles supplied to Ukraine only have a 250-300km range & Kerch Bridge is around 350 kilometers from the front line.
It has been proposed that Ukraine modified some x soviet missiles with a 400km range for the attack.

Article about the difficulties that the Ukrainian Spring/Summer Offensive has been having, from the new york times, a very pro-Ukrainian source.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/po...nsive.html

---

I was just reading today about the many aircraft that the US Air Force is retiring and putting into storage at the Davis-Monthan AFB AMARC "boneyard". 21 A-10 Warthogs just went there last month after being retired from the USAF.

So why not give Ukraine those 21 A-10's? They are still flyable since they flew to Davis-Monthan. The Ukrainian Defense Minister said in December that Ukraine could use 100 A-10's and asked the US to loan them the planes, but the US Secretary of Defense said that was impossible. Well, here are 21 of them that could be flying to Ukraine next week.

And look through the boneyard for other aircraft that would be useful that can be returned to operational condition quickly and cheaply. The advantage of using planes from AMARC is that they are already retired from US service, so supplying them doesn't deplete active US aircraft inventories.

My own opinion is that the US should not weaken itself by supplying Ukraine's seemingly endless war of attrition with Russia. It isn't realistic to supply Ukraine with new-build aircraft and call it 'foreign military sales', since Ukraine has no ability to pay for the planes and building the planes from scratch would take years before they are delivered. Supplying military surplus planes avoids those problems.

This just in - reports are arriving in that Ukraine has just struck the Kerch bridge again. Unclear what kind of weapons they used. But apparently at least one span has been dropped. There were civilian cars on the bridge at the time and there are an unknown number of fatalities.

Edit - Additional information is that the road bridge is out of action in one direction. It doesn't look totally obliterated though and should be repairable. The road bridge in the other direction appears undamaged.

The rail portion of the bridge appears undamaged.

Ukrainian media is reporting that the attack this time wasn't missiles. It was supposedly Ukrainian agents who got an explosives-laden boat under the bridge and detonated it. That sounds like a breakdown in Russian security, although considerable marine traffic passes through the Kerch strait and since Russia captured the entire shore of the Sea of Azov, it's all Russian traffic.