Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

(Mar 5, 2023 12:11 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]The neck of Ukrainian controlled territory between Bakhmut and the rest of Ukraine is now only 2 miles (3.2 km) wide. All the main roads out are cut and secondary roads are being heavily shelled. There are increasing indications of a Ukrainian withdrawl, but nothing official yet. Ukrainian troops have been seen moving into Bakhmut as well, but they may be arriving to help cover the withdrawl of their comrades.

It's increasingly clear that we will know what's happening in the next few days.

Looks like a much too prolonged, damaging investment in a lost cause. But because of the importance, there was no choice but to try. Maybe due to this, Ukraine can pull out of similar situations in the future without losing face or receiving criticism from the public. "Hey, some realism. Did you want _X_ to happen yet again?"

But on the negative side, huge morale boost for Russia. "Turning the tide" propaganda, back to the early "successes" of the invasion.

Latest Bakhmut map from Rybar

Is it just me or has anyone noticed an improvement in Russian arms/tactics ever since “The Merchant of Death” Viktor Bout was traded for WNBA basketball player Brittney Griner. This guy has plenty of contacts on both sides I’d imagine plus many others who can benefit from Russian natural resources. A few favours owed possibly or corrupt politicians/generals who’d rather deal with Bout than Putin. Could Ukraine become the first country to lose a war thanks in part to a dope smoking female hoopster? A thousand years from now she may become the face that launched a thousand missiles.

(Mar 5, 2023 12:11 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]The neck of Ukrainian controlled territory between Bakhmut and the rest of Ukraine is now only 2 miles (3.2 km) wide. All the main roads out are cut and secondary roads are being heavily shelled. There are increasing indications of a Ukrainian withdrawal, but nothing official yet. Ukrainian troops have been seen moving into Bakhmut as well, but they may be arriving to help cover the withdrawal of their comrades. There are photos that suggest that Ukrainian soldiers are walking out across fields, probably since vehicles on the roads are just attractive targets.

It's increasingly clear that we will know what's happening in the next few days.

some units have already been pulled out
i expect they are tactically withdrawing currently

i hope they blow the other rail lines to prevent Ruzzia from using the rail system
with all the rail lines and roads going in ruzzia were probably intending to use Bakhmut  as a super hub to load troops & supplies to which is why i think they want it soo bad as well as it forming some part of their declared regions.
when russia take it they will declare it as a victory when in fact its a massive loss.

All the paved roads out of Bakhmut have either been cut by the Russians or are the subject of intense shelling. So the Ukrainians are trying extract their soldiers (several thousand) across farm fields. The dirt roads across the fields have turned into mud filled with bogged down vehicles and soldiers trudging on foot. There are videos such as the ones in the tweet below showing vehicles getting stuck in the mud. There's talk, though unconfirmed at this point, of Russian artillery blowing up many Ukrainian armored vehicles and of heavy casualties. I don't know it that's true.

What is clear is that this evacuation isn't going as well as the expertly done Ukrainian evacuation of Lysychansk and the surprisingly quick and effective Russian evacuation of Kherson. Everyone is saying that the Ukrainians waited too long, for political reasons.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...9869662212

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/163...4189629446

French TV report, posted today, but looks to have been filmed in the villages just west of Bakhmut a day or two ago.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe...94557.html

Those Sea King helicopters would be ideal to evacuate them with.

Lots of talk this morning that Zelensky has ordered the Ukrainian army not to withdraw from Bakhmut and defend it at all costs. Supposedly the Ukrainian high command is aboard with that, though there are some indications that they might not be. (A top army general was recently replaced for unknown reasons. Speculation is he wanted to withdraw from Bakhmut weeks ago.)

I didn't believe the news that Zelensky was ordering his army to stay and fight when I saw it on Twitter, but now the BBC is reporting it too.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64864496

It's unclear if this doubling down is for real or if it's just a feint attempting to make the Russians expect continued heavy street fighting and make them more hesitant to advance forward, as the Ukrainians withdraw. (The Ukrainians used that tactic successfully in Lysychansk, where the Russians fully expected street fighting when they went in, but found the city deserted.)

And there's lots of speculation on Twitter that the Russians might have made further withdrawal impossible and the Bakhmut defenders are effectively surrounded, so Zelensky is just trying to put a happy-face on a very bad situation reminiscent of Mariupol.

i think Ukraine should blow the damn on Berkhivs-ke reservoir
48.638504705944534, 37.95459062303756

& take out the down stream bridge on the road called
shoseina street
48.6479147439914, 37.9927993327226

& also take out the bridge on MO3 where it goes over the river at the same intersection
48.6477341941395, 37.992509981101044

and this road bridge
48.64316276912798, 37.95953203668972

this should divide the road access up to make significant problems for advancing west from east for the russians forcing them to either concentrate south or go far north resulting in them needing to split their forces and cover significantly longer distance to achieve smaller gains.

this should effectively cut off Bakhmut from the north and prevent encirclement & vastly increase the distance russia must travel to get to the Ukrainian front lines & convoys make good targets

blow the road damn(demo charge to blow up the road so the lake floods through it) on this road so it cuts off the road and helps flood the same river as Berkhivs-ke reservoir
48.64582204351894, 37.95219781583412

hit the road bridges first including the small lake
then blow the big reservoir to wash away the bridges & cut bakhmut off from the northern roads

road bridges & small lake-damn-road 1st(cutting off the roads)
then last blow the reservoir to flood the line to prevent vehicles

3 road bridges and the road damn(small lake with its road damn)
then the main reservoir

RU will like this.

There's a company in the Czech republic that makes full-size inflatable fake military equipment. The idea is to put them under trees or under camoflage netting as decoys, to make the enemy think they are real and attack them instead of real equipment and their crews.

https://www.inflatechdecoy.com/

They won't say if they are selling these things to Ukraine, but they do say their sales have increased in the last year.

Inflatable HIMARS



Inflatable M1 Abrams tank

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(Mar 6, 2023 11:01 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]i think Ukraine should blow the damn on Berkhivs-ke reservoir
48.638504705944534, 37.95459062303756

& take out the down stream bridge on the road called
shoseina street
48.6479147439914, 37.9927993327226

& also take out the bridge on MO3 where it goes over the river at the same intersection
48.6477341941395, 37.992509981101044

and this road bridge
48.64316276912798, 37.95953203668972

this should divide the road access up to make significant problems for advancing west from east for the russians forcing them to either concentrate south or go far north resulting in them needing to split their forces and cover significantly longer distance to achieve smaller gains.

this should effectively cut off Bakhmut from the north and prevent encirclement & vastly increase the distance russia must travel to get to the Ukrainian front lines & convoys make good targets

blow the road damn(demo charge to blow up the road so the lake floods through it) on this road so it cuts off the road and helps flood the same river as Berkhivs-ke reservoir
48.64582204351894, 37.95219781583412

hit the road bridges first including the small lake
then blow the big reservoir to wash away the bridges & cut bakhmut off from the northern roads

road bridges & small lake-damn-road 1st(cutting off the roads)
then last blow the reservoir to flood the line to prevent vehicles

3 road bridges and the road damn(small lake with its road damn)
then the main reservoir

I'm not 100% certain, but I think that they have already done most of that. They seem to have pulled out of the part of Bakhmut east of the river, blew the bridges and are using the river as a defensive moat.

Map by Rybar

(Mar 7, 2023 06:32 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]RU will like this.

There's a company in the Czech republic that makes full-size inflatable fake military equipment. The idea is to put them under trees or under camoflage netting as decoys, to make the enemy think they are real and attack them instead of real equipment and their crews.

https://www.inflatechdecoy.com/

They won't say if they are selling these things to Ukraine, but they do say their sales have increased in the last year.

Inflatable HIMARS



Inflatable M1 Abrams tank

---

A case of new is old, and old is new:
https://www.history.co.uk/article/operat...-the-nazis
As Samuel Clemens aka Mark Twain wrote: "History never repeat itself, but it often rhymes".