Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

(Jun 17, 2023 01:16 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [ -> ]How did the Russian military suddenly become great tacticians/fighters? Is there corruption involving Ukrainian traitors/officials or did the sacrifice of untrained, unwilling, undisciplined or even unwanted soldiers buy time to properly put together a formidable army?

It might just be due to defending being a completely different strategy (or doctrine) to attack. Most countries don't want to see themselves the aggressors as it increases unpredictability with other countries, so they likely train their officers to defend more than attack.

If Russia devotes (say) 5% of its GDP to defeating Ukraine and Ukraine currently has no GDP - can Ukraine defeat Russia?

(Jun 17, 2023 01:16 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [ -> ]How did the Russian military suddenly become great tacticians/fighters?

I'm not convinced that they are.

The Russians underperformed terribly when they initially attacked in February 2022. And the Ukrainians are underperforming now. In both cases it looks to me like modern weaponry has given the advantage to the defenders. Small man-portable antitank rockets have proven very effective at killing tanks and other vehicles. Attack drones have proven to be a game-changer. The battlefield has gotten more dangerous for attacking forces.

And there are problems unique to each situation. In their initial 2022 attack, the Russians displayed great ineptitude in logistics, failing to keep their advance spearheads supplied with fuel, food and ammunition. What's more, the Russians never used their Air Force effectively, and never achieved control of the skies over most of Ukraine. (The Ukrainians couldn't control their skies either, so neither side could bring their air assets to bear.)

This time the Ukrainians have tried to concentrate their attacking force against small sections of enemy front in hopes of punching through with overwhelming firepower. But concentrating their forces only makes those forces vulnerable to artillery, and the Russians have a numerical advantage in conventional artillery which they have been using to great effect.

The Russians have laid extensive mine fields, and these are playing an important role.

Another huge disadvantage for the Ukrainians this time is that they are trying to perform their offensive without control of the skies above. The Russians have control of the air over the battlefield and they have been using attack jets and KA-52 attack helicopters firing long-range anti-tank guided missiles very effectively.



(I've noticed that pro-Ukrainian voices on Twitter have started blaming NATO for the failure (so far) of the Ukrainian offensive, arguing that if NATO had supplied F-16 jets to Ukraine, that the offensive would have succeeded.)

Quote:Is there corruption involving Ukrainian traitors/officials

Yeah, that too. There's the talk (unconfirmed) that the Russians had the Ukrainian attack plan before the attack started. I'm assuming that if the Russians really had it, then they got it from somebody in the Ukrainian government with high enough rank to have seen it. (Perhaps for a nice price.) So if the Russians knew where the Ukrainians would be attacking, how many of them there would be and what they would be equipped with, planning an effective defense would be much easier.

Quote:or did the sacrifice of untrained, unwilling, undisciplined or even unwanted soldiers buy time to properly put together a formidable army?

We've heard a lot about poorly trained Russian conscripts. But the same is probably even more true for Ukraine. Most of the professional Ukrainian Army that existed in 2022 has been destroyed. Their replacements are more recent volunteers and mobilized draftees. At first there were many Ukrainian volunteers and their morale was much better than the Russians'. But since then Ukrainian press-gangs have been kidnapping young men off the street and inducting them against their will. All while the stylishly-dressed rich and connected young people party the night away in their swanky nightclubs, safe from being drafted because of politics and bribes. Those who are drafted know they got shafted, and morale in the Ukrainian Army is headed in the same direction that the American conscript army in Vietnam went.

But I don't want to push that one too hard. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have gone into battle in the last few days. The fact that many of them didn't want to be there didn't keep them from fighting bravely and doesn't explain the failings of the offensive. That's more on their officers, who sent them into battle in circumstances where they were at a serious disadvantage, and had them using the same old Soviet-style human-wave attacks that the Russians were widely accused of using, almost guaranteeing heavy casualties.

Sunday June 18 - Again, almost all information is coming from the Russian side. The story they tell is that the Ukrainians continue to attack in the western Orikhiv area. Attack after attack. Despite suffering heavy losses, they have managed to advance a little and have taken a few villages, where the Russians think they are regrouping for continued attacks. The Russians don't think that the Ukrainians have committed all of their reserves yet and are pounding them with artillery.

The Russian internet channels are starting to sound jubilent, once again. To hear them tell it, the Ukrainians have been forced to back out of Pyatikhatki (a small farm village) after heavy artillery bombardment. Pro-Ukrainian channels are starting to say the same thing. It looks like the Russians are still using their withdraw-bash-reoccupy strategy successfully.

---

The Russians say the Ukrainians are regrouping just north of Pyathkhatki and expect them to attack again after dark

Right now it doesn't look like either side occupies Pyathkhatki. (There isn't much left to occupy, every house is flattened.) It's contested grey-area. An awful lot of noise and violence for almost nothing.

Several high-ranking US generals and intelligence officials say that most of the Ukrainian attack force is still being held in reserve and that what we are seeing is just probing actions to discover Russian weaknesses. So they are saying don't be disheartened by the lack of success of the offensive so far, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Which may really be true. Or maybe they are just trying to manage public opinion. Everything is propaganda in this day and age.

Zelensky and the Ukrainian Defense Minister replied to increasing domestic criticism of the greatly anticipated Spring Offensive by saying that people expected too much and that it's not a movie.

It isn't a movie?? Then why did Ukraine produce this crazy Bollywood-inspired musical dance number??

(I have to admit that it's really good and I like it.)

https://www.timesnownews.com/videos/vira...-100721793

Catchy!!

More than two weeks into Ukraine's big Spring Offensive, where do things stand?

Valuable Twitter thread about the Ukrainian offensive by a retired Australian army general.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/16720...40992.html

Mick Ryan is outspokenly pro-Ukraine, but his views represent a useful counterpoint to Russian sources like Rybar.

He explains the Russian defensive strategy visible in maps like the one above. It's standard defensive thinking, learned from hard experience by many armies in many wars. He notes that defense will be easier for not-very-well-trained draftees, than an active mobile mechanized offense would be.

He doesn't seem to think that the Ukrainians are fully committed to attacking southwards on the Zaphorzhia front. (Where they seem to have been having little success.) And he seems to agree with the American generals who believe that Ukraine still hasn't committed the main force of its offensive. The main Ukrainian assault might come anywhere along the front.

Reasons for this "broad front" approach include:

1. It creates uncertainty in the minds of Russian commanders who don't know where the main attack will be. This forces them to spread out their defensive forces and makes them subject to deception operations.

2. It gives the Ukrainians better ability to respond to opportunities that develop. Concentrating attacking forces makes them less able to adapt.

3. Concentrating forces not only makes them more vulnerable to Russian attack, it also makes other parts of the front more vulnerable to Russian offensive thrusts there.

Of course arguments can be made for a "narrow front" approach. I'm not a general, but obvious ones would seem to be

1. The ability to build up sufficient firepower to break through in a desired place, as opposed to being too weak to break through anywhere along a broad front.

2. Less of a logistical challenge supplying forces spread over a smaller area.

From my layman's perspective, two big considerations in the success of any offensive might be:

1. Control of the air above the battlefield. Right now, over Zaphorizhia, that belongs to Russia. And there's artillery. Ukraine has the advantage in precision guided artillery, but Russia has a large numerical advantage in conventional artillery.

2. Military intelligence giving commanders information on what the enemy is doing. Any Ukrainian attempt to launch a surprise attack against some other part of the front would have to be preceeded by obvious signs such as gathering forces and logistical supplies. We can be sure that the Russians are watching closely for that. Meanwhile Ukraine has the advantage of access to American satellite data and imagery.

Big excitement in Moscow today!

Progozhin (Wagner boss) is claiming that a missile, fired by the Russian defense ministry, struck a Wagner camp and caused many casualties. I have no idea if this is true, but he's claiming it and he's mad as hell!

So in a fit of passion, he called for Wagner to march on Moscow and mount a coup, if not against Putin (who is Progozhin's friend) against the defense ministry leadership!

He quickly walked that back and said he just wanted them to march peacefully and lawfully on the defense ministry.

In Moscow what's called the "Fortress Plan" has been put into effect. Extra police and army soldiers are visible on the streets, with security road blocks.

BBC Russian tweet showing military vehicles on Moscow streets

https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/16...5051324416

The FSB (the Russian FBI and almost as corrupt) are calling for Progozhin's arrest.

Most recently, when asked about the activation of the Fortress Plan, the Russian government cited some unspecified Ukrainian threat. (Seriously, if Ukraine orchestrated setting Wagner against the regular Russian military in the middle of Ukraine's grand Offensive, it would be a tremendous coup for Kyiv. Or the CIA or MI6 or whoever engineered it, if it wasn't the Russian MoD themselves.)

For what it's worth, the BBC is reporting (the poor English is due to this being the Russian-language service of the BBC translated back into English):

---