Map of the Kherson breakthrough. The water on the right is the Dnipro river where it is widened into a lake behind the Khakovka dam. (Its width makes it an impassible barrier to land transport.) The Ukrainians burst southwards along the west lakeshore road. The farthest place where there is open source verification of Ukrainian control is Havrylivka. The Russians appear to have stopped their disorderly retreat and are mounting a defense at Dudshany, which has stopped the Ukrainians, at least temporarily. This area and the area to the west is mostly open farmland. There are going to be some Russians out there, like at Lyubymivka who are suddenly more or less cut off from support. This might be a tempting area for the Ukrainians to attack, even if the Russian defense at Dudshany holds.
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(Oct 3, 2022 06:36 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]This area and the area to the west is mostly open farmland. There are going to be some Russians out there, like at Lyubymivka who are suddenly more or less cut off from support. This might be a tempting area for the Ukrainians to attack, even if the Russian defense at Dudshany holds.
And I believe that the Ukrainians have indeed occupied both Lyubymivka and Myrobobivka. (Just small collections of houses out in the fields.)
(Oct 3, 2022 10:08 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]Ramzan Kadyrov: Chechen leader vows to send teenage sons to front line
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63118050
Quote:Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov says his three sons, aged 14, 15 and 16, will soon travel to the Ukraine front line to fight with Russian forces. [...]
Vlad chose a good sycophant. Maybe this noble sacrifice will spur yet more ethnic residents of the Federation to joyfully render themselves as cannon fodder for the [Russian] Slavic cause. These firearm-neutered days, probably the only chance they'll even have to experience a weapon in their once rebellious hands. Hopefully it's also one of the corroded ones that still works (and has bullets).
Difficult to say whether being blown to bits while still 50 miles away from the enemy actually adds or subtracts from the whole 'war experience'. Life (a life) is (by tradition) cheap in Russia - the inventor of Russian roulette as an alternative to watching television after a meal is invited to take the stage.
Unofficial Russian internet posts are have posted photographs of a long railroad train carrying sealed Kamaz military trucks, leaving a facility belonging to the Russian Ministry of Defense's
12th Chief Directorate outside Moscow.
Unclear what this means. Russia typically transports nuclear weapons in specialized rail cars that weren't seen here. There are even questions whether nuclear weapons are present at this particular facility, given the lack of visible perimeter security there. It's basically a bunch of Soviet era warehouses and railroad sidings. But it's active, since satellite photos show lots of vehicles entering and leaving its parking lots. And it does belong to the 12th Chief Directorate, whose job it is to maintain custody of, test and distribute Russia's nuclear weapons, as well as other radiological safety tasks like responding to nuclear terrorism. The Russian army and air force don't typically have nuclear weapons and only get them from the 12th Chief Directorate in times of emergency.
The train did appear to also be carrying "shot" armored cars with the new "spitza" automated turret. These only entered production in the last few months and are intended for "escort and protection of special cargoes".
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...3549306880
https://en.topwar.ru/196219-v-rossii-nac...spica.html
There's speculation that these movements and the internet reporting of them were done in order that they be seen by Western intelligence agencies, as a way for Putin to send a message with just the right amount of ambiguity. If the Osint nuts picked up on it, we can be reasonably certain that the CIA, DIA and MI6 did as well.
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I no longer doubt that Vlad will use at least one small yield, tactical nuclear weapon when the Ukrainians finally penetrate to some part that he can't tolerate being reclaimed. What he'll strike is anyone's guess, aside from it being a target shocking enough to halt any further progress.
(Oct 4, 2022 04:19 AM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]I no longer doubt that Vlad will use at least one small yield, tactical nuclear weapon when the Ukrainians finally penetrate to some part that he can't tolerate being reclaimed. What he'll strike is anyone's guess, aside from it being a target shocking enough to halt any further progress.
If he does decide to do that, it would be very stupid, as it will result in a swift response. It's not because people are poised to strike him back, it's actually because if he lets of a nuke and no one does anything in retaliation, what sort of message would it send to Iran or North Korea? (It would be open season for any tyranical nuke wielder to hit whomever they want)
(Oct 4, 2022 07:39 AM)stryder Wrote: [ -> ] (Oct 4, 2022 04:19 AM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]I no longer doubt that Vlad will use at least one small yield, tactical nuclear weapon when the Ukrainians finally penetrate to some part that he can't tolerate being reclaimed. What he'll strike is anyone's guess, aside from it being a target shocking enough to halt any further progress.
If he does decide to do that, it would be very stupid, as it will result in a swift response. It's not because people are poised to strike him back, it's actually because if he lets of a nuke and no one does anything in retaliation, what sort of message would it send to Iran or North Korea? (It would be open season for any tyranical nuke wielder to hit whomever they want)
That is just plain wrong thinking. Every situation needs evaluating on it's own particulars. You actually think that if by some miracle Iran were to successfully evade the IAEA/ CIA/ Mossad scrutineers and create one firecracker sized low yield fission nuke, they would somehow be emboldened to attempt to lob it on Tel Aviv?! Ha ha ha. A reminder of the enormous political/military disparities in the real world:
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/colin-powell-l...an-1581825
You think Iran would be so stupid, so suicidal as to not know that?!
And in case you think Israel is a trusted responsible state that would never be be tempted to bring the world down if it's US backed enormous ME hegemony were actually threatened:
http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/israe...ycaps.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN1cbR098sA
So many blind spots and glaring double standards. Relying on intentionally creating doped down minds incapable of putting 2 + 2 together and getting 4.
North Korea is actually an interesting contrast to Iran. It's nuke plans were well known in advance but no real action taken. Why not? Well it initially only threatened it's Asian neighbours. Not Israel. That factor alone is sufficient to explain the big difference in US response.
