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Wow, RU - If that video of yours is accurate and the Ukrainians are in Kreminna and Lysychansk, that is HUGE news. It suggests that the Russian "Special Operation" might be falling apart more generally and not just where this Kharkiv oblast offensive is occurring. I'm looking for verification of it. If true, IT'S BIG. Edit - There are multiple reports of this, but many of them seem to be quoting each other and admit that it's unverified. It seems to have come from the head of the Luhansk oblast military administration. I'm still not sure how accurate it is.

There are reports of civilians in the two separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk fleeing in large numbers to the Russian border, where cars are backed up for miles because the Russians won't let them enter Russia, despite their having recently been given nice new Russian passports.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/...1047001088

The Ukrainians seem to have retaken all of the Russian held portion of Kharkiv oblast while the Russians try to pull themselves together and regroup behind the Oskil river, which is a long snaky reservoir along much of its length and provides them with a natural moat. But there are excited reports that the Ukrainians have already crossed this line and are advancing almost unopposed eastwards, while the Russians flee before them. If it's true, the Ukrainians might already be past Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

The video in the tweet below is supposed to have been filmed in Starobilsk in Luhansk Oblast, about 100 km east of the Oskil. If the Russians are fleeing from there, it's probably all over for their invasion. Of course they might not be retreating at all, and have been called forward instead to help reinforce the new lines. We just don't know what the real situation is in northern Luhansk. (Fog of war...)

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status...3570681856

And there are unconfirmed reports that military convoys are moving west to east through Melitopol, from the direction of Kherson towards Mariupol. Again, what does this mean? Are the forces that were moved to Kherson being redeployed back to where they are more needed?

Bottom line seems to be that the situation in eastern Ukraine is very chaotic right now and it's unclear what is happening. It might take a day or two to sort out.

(Putin might not even know, since I doubt if he trusts what his people tell him.)

It will be interesting to see what the Russians can salvage from what is starting to look like it might be a general debacle.

I think that for lots of reasons, this is a war that will be studied in the world's military academies for years to come.

Huge amount of abandon Russian Armour & ammunition


   

"Moscow's almost total silence on the defeat or any explanation for what had taken place in northeastern Ukraine provoked significant anger among some pro-war commentators and Russian nationalists on social media. Some of them called on Sunday for president Vladimir Putin to make immediate changes to ensure ultimate victory in the war."

Apparently the best military planners and strategists in Russia had to be rejected because they weren't sufficiently loyal to Putin. Or maybe they were recruited, and this is the hijinks of their infidelity. Works either way.

Obviously mercenaries are obsolete in an era where they don't even give you food and shoes for joining. Can't spend the money if you're dead, or if there's little confidence in the deceased's "duty reimbursement" truly being delivered to the surviving family or loved ones. That's in addition to not emotionally giving a flip about the conflict to begin with: "My fealty for realty, dude."

Video of some 60 russian vehicles retreating over a pontoon bridge
no idea of how long ago this video was taken

Quote: (Putin might not even know, since I doubt if he trusts what his people tell him.)

Do you think Poots might venture up towards the front to see what’s happening?

Moscow & St Petersburg Citizens issued demands for citizens to join military
with wildly different age ranges
so it looks like they are attempting covert conscription

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(Sep 11, 2022 10:18 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote: (Putin might not even know, since I doubt if he trusts what his people tell him.)

Do you think Poots might venture up towards the front to see what’s happening?

i doubt it, i doubt he would go to Crimea either.

Kharkiv, Dnipro, Sumy and Poltava and a number of other Ukrainian cities are without electrical power as Russia targets the electrical grid.

Map from GeoConfirmed. It looks like a pretty credible picture of the current situation. The black line is the current dividing line between Ukrainian and Russian forces. A thin white line is the official international border. (Between Kharkiv and Belgorod the black line coincides with the border.) The thin white dotted lines are the oblast (province) boundaries. There's some indication that the Ukrainians are back in Lyman, and the black line loops above it. But it doesn't show Lysychansk or Severodonetsk in Ukrainian hands, which I think is probably correct. (I'm skeptical that those cities have been retaken.) The Russians probably haven't fled from Starobilsk, which the map shows to be a road junction where military vehicles might be expected to move through, on their way to reinforcing the black line to the west and south.

Check out GeoConfirmed's interactive map on Google Maps. You can click on each icon and get a link to a photo or video.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid...684422&z=7

(Sep 12, 2022 01:06 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Kharkiv, Dnipro, Sumy and Poltava and a number of other Ukrainian cities are without electrical power as Russia targets the electrical grid.

there is no tactical advantage for them cutting the power except to punish the civilians & try to stop people from uploading videos and pictures(which it wont because Ukrainian soldiers are uploading their own progress)

Orcs are running away in chaos

looking at this video (right at the end the truck)it looks like they have abandoned their uniforms it is starting to look like the Orcs were massively under manned and over stretched
morale must be really low
that information will filter back to the familys of the Orcs running away

i expect russia will try to use its air force defensively which will give the ukrainians an opportunity to destroy more planes.

the real situation in the Russian military ranks must be considerably worse than most realize.









need more of these Archer Artillery System


to be highly mobile front line support from the forward defensive line so they can fire on to front line targets
reserve units operating as defensive contingent for the artillery operating at near max distance from behind the front like a secondary defensive line
front line
front rear defense
forward defensive line with artillery
so the archers can put fire down on targets as the main body of the front can swing off toward a different direction while keeping fire suppression and keep the Orcs guessing.
front rear defense operating like interceptor scouts keeping eyes on the cleared territory & helping to secure locations for the archers with their reserve troops.
need air defense front defensive and reserve with archers so if anything gets through it gets a second shot at it while their planes are looking for targets

The Archer

This is a very good update

right at the end he shows evidence of the total Russian losses at around 50,000 dead not counting mercenarys

Seems that retreat in any type of vehicle, especially tanks, is a death sentence. Chances of staying alive better if on foot?