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Photos of the Russian cruiser Moskva on fire after (presumably) being hit by Ukrainian missiles, before it sank. This is the largest naval ship sunk in combat since the Argentine cruiser Belgrano was torpedoed by a British nuclear submarine in the Falklands war.

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Day 54 Summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...4-summary/

The Ukrainians say that the long expected Russian offensive has begun. Today it seems to have consisted of heavy shelling along much of the front line, plus small reconnaisance probing actions. Still no big movements on the ground, with one or two exceptions.

Artillery is striking the northern outskirts of Kharkiv (Ukraine's second city).

The Ukrainians say that there are some 25,000 Russian troops in and around Izium. Today they say the Russians sent out small recon units that withdrew when they encountered Ukrainian defenders.

To the east of Izium the Russians have taken a large rural town (~18K population) called Kreminna. (The Ukrainian command in Kyiv insists that Ukrainian defenders are still fighting for the town, but locals say that the outnumbered Ukrainian army pulled out in the face of far larger Russian forces.) Russians also seem to be advancing south from Terny. These Russian forces may be trying to encircle the Ukrainian defenders of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. And/or they hope to attack Slovyansk and Kromatorsk from the northeast as the main force advances from Izium in the northwest.

To the south on the Donetsk front, there's heavy Russian shelling along the entire line of contact and the Ukrainians say the Russians are attacking at Andilvka, just north of Donetsk.

And to the south, the Ukrainians report shelling at Huliaipole and a Russian attack is expected there pushing northwards.

Russians on the move somewhere in this broad area

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...4049785863

Outgoing Russian rockets from Donetsk, capital of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...2224173064

The Ukrainians have rockets too

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...4534240262

(Map from Militaryland.net)



And the valiant city of Mariupol. The last Ukrainian defenders and the last surviving civilians are reduced to one remaining pocket, centered on the Azovstal Metallurgical Works. The Russians are bombarding it mercilessly. I don't expect the Ukrainian defenders to last more than a day or two. But this heroic to-the-last-man defense serves a purpose, demonstrating to the Russians that taking a much bigger city like Kyiv might be a street-by-street, building-by-building battle, that will be hugely costly to the Russians in men and equipment. If even a small city can behave like Mariupol, the Russians will be very hesitant about more urban street fighting.

Day 55 Summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...5-summary/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...t-april-19

Despite both the Ukrainian government and Russian sources saying the anticipated Russian eastern offensive has started, there still haven't been any large advances. It's still lots of relatively small probing actions and lots of artillery fire, all along the contact line. Some in the Pentagon are skeptical that the Russians have really attacked yet.

There's some speculation that President Putin has ordered an offensive before Russian logistics and command and control are ready, in hopes of celebrating a Russian victory of some sort by Victory Day on May 9 (big Russian holiday celebrating victory over Germany in World War II). That's only about three weeks off. Some American observers think that the Russians are setting themselves up for another embarassing failure.

Mariupol is still holding out, but its defenders are pretty much forced back into the Azovstal steel plant. There are reports that Russian media is gathering in Mariupol for some kind of victory event when the city is finally taken. That might be as soon as a day or two.

Yay… do you think the Russians are surprised at how effective Ukraine’s allies weapons are? Or that they may have fallen behind in an arms race, if there was/is one?

Ukraine is calling for even more arms, and we’ve agreed to sustain and further strengthen them, but do you know what they’re saying in Russia? They’re saying that it’s reaching the point where they might have to face the facts. With all of NATO’s support, World War III isn’t underway, this is World War III.

You can't rationally cry "WWIII!!!" while being the only objective aggressor. Being paranoid about an encroaching NATO is just that, paranoia.

Day 56 Summary

There isn't much to report. The big Russian offensive doesn't seem to be happening yet.

The Ukrainians on the other hand are advancing just east of Chuhuiv, east of Kharkiv. It isn't clear what they are trying to accomplish, since their force is too small to cut Russian supply lines to Izium at Kupiansk. Perhaps it's just intended to take pressure off Chuhuiv, which is the site of a major Ukrainian military base. Though I expect that the base has already been bombed, shelled and rocketed into oblivion.

The large Russian force in and around Izium still hasn't moved en masse, which makes me think that the anticipated big offensive hasn't really started yet.

To the east in Luhansk, the small industrial city of Rubizhne (~50,000 pop) may or may not have fallen to the Russians. There's been fighting in the town for several days. (It's where that huge nitric acid tank was blown up by Russian artillery releasing a giant deadly vapor plume.)

But other than that, there seemingly haven't been any big Russian breakthroughs anywhere.

In Mariupol the situation went from terrible to not-quite-so-bad. It seems that besides the Azovstal steel plant pocket, a few hundred police and border guards were still fighting near the port in the west side of town. But they were running out of ammunition, so Marines from the Azovstal plant broke out, linked up with them and escorted them back to the steel plant.

In the southwest, shelling has continued between the Kherson (Russian occupied) and Mykolaiv (Ukrainian) areas, but no big troop movements on the ground reported.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...6-summary/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...t-april-20

Things that make you go "hummm..."

Major fire at the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces Institute at Tver, about 100 miles/160 km outside Moscow. Five dead and about 30 injured, mostly from smoke inhalation. For what it's worth, the Russians are attributing it to faulty electrical wiring.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/151...9320976385

More things that make you go "hummm" - There was a huge fire today at a fuel depot in the Russian city of Bryansk, a city of about 400,000 near the Ukraine border. The facility is believed to have been supplying the Russian military in Ukraine. Cause of the fire remains unknown, but the photo below appears to show flames at several locations and Bryansk locals report hearing explosions.



Day 61 Summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...1-summary/

It's a week since the announced beginning of Russia's big offensive, but there still haven't been any large Russian advances.

The Ukrainians seem to have been giving as good as they have been getting. Ukrainian forces have been advancing both northwest of Kharkiv and to the east of Chuhuiv, a military base town not far east of Kharkiv. It looks like Kharkiv is no longer under immanent threat and it's the Russians who are on the defensive in that sector.

Around Izium, the Russians have advanced south, but not dramatically. Their biggest advances might be in the rural farming area between Izium and Sievierodonetsk, where a number of small villages have been taken by the Russians. Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk both continue to resist Russian advances. The Russians have taken Novotoshkivske, the furthest east point still held by the Ukrainians. The town is reportedly completely flattened.

To the south in Donetsk Oblast, the Russians continue to shell heavily and try to advance, so far without success. American observers can't figure out what they are trying to accomplish since their assaults are too small to be successful but they keep repeating them, which just wastes men. More bad Russian military leadership it seems.

And far to the southwest, the Ukrainian high command says that the Russians are gathering forces for what they think might be another thrust towards Kryvyi Rih. It hasn't happened yet and things are generally quiet.

And the hero city of Mariupol. The Russians have tired of throwing soldiers at the Azovstal steel factory so Putin ordered that it be surrounded, sealed off and starved out. As people are saying on (newly liberated) Twitter, in 10 years expect a movie to be made about this battle, so reminiscent of World War II's Stalingrad, perhaps entitled Azovstal.



The remaining defenders (perhaps as many as 1000) are holed up in a maze of concrete tunnels under the plant. But they are running out of food and ammunition. Meanwhile there are satellite images of mass graves near Mariupol and stories of mass cremations of dead bodies from the city.

Hummm as in Doolittle type raids? Welcoming Russians to the war?

(Apr 26, 2022 04:04 AM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [ -> ]Hummm as in Doolittle type raids? Welcoming Russians to the war?

That's what I was thinking. It's a real possibility.

The Ukrainians slipped a couple of very low flying attack helicopters into Belgorod Russia a couple of weeks ago and fired rockets at another fuel depot. So we know that they do this kind of thing.