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(Feb 15, 2023 11:18 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]did elon really pull some access to star link from Ukraine military ?

Elon Musk hit back at ex-NASA astronaut Scott Kelly, saying SpaceX's Starlink is supporting Ukraine but won't be used to start WWIII
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-mus...023-2?op=1

EXCERPT: . . . SpaceX said in recent weeks that Ukraine can't use its Starlink internet service for military drones, such as to pilot drones, and has taken steps to prevent this, per Reuters.

[...] Musk told Kelly he was smart enough to "not swallow media & other propaganda BS." He called Starlink the "communication backbone" of Ukraine, "especially at the frontlines."

"But we will not enable escalation of conflict that may lead to WW3," Musk added.

In a separate tweet, Musk said Starlink terminals are designed for private use, not military use, "but we have not exercised our right to turn them off."

He said SpaceX was trying to do the right thing, but this was an "extremely difficult moral question." The company has not confirmed how it has limited Ukraine's ability to use SpaceX for military purposes... (MORE - missing details)

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(Feb 18, 2023 10:24 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]

(Feb 18, 2023 08:54 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]

I don't think that Putin has destroyed Russia. But there's a stronger argument that he's destroyed the conventional Russian military, or at least displayed its already existing weakness for the whole world to see.

The question now is whether they learn from those deficiencies and address their many problems so as to grow stronger in the future.

Actually, the whole world can learn from this war, really the first between two technologically advanced peer-adversaries since World War II. What works better than expected? (ATGMs, long range precision artillery, drones, Ukrainian propaganda warfare in the media) and what works worse (Russian command and control, Russian logistics, Russian training and motivation, conventional armor against modern ATGMs) I expect that lots of countries will be changing how their own armies look and operate after this instructive demonstration war.

VIDEO EXCERPT: "Putin, he has managed to do something that the Western Powers even didn't want to do. Germany was fully depending on Russian oil and gas it was a bad situation. But even they didn't want to change this. Putin has managed to cut the Western dependence on Russian oil and gas."

However, Russia has and will probably continue to find replacement clients for its fossil fuels.

Ukraine crisis: Who is buying Russian oil and gas?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60783874

India and China have become the largest buyers of Russian oil as Western nations restrict purchases and impose sanctions. [...] Russia has been offering its oil at a discount to willing buyers in Asia.

In other news, the talk today is that Wagner has completed the capture of Paraskoviivka. In so doing they seem to have beaten the main force of Ukrainian defenders north of Bakhmut.

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(Feb 18, 2023 10:33 PM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]did elon really pull some access to star link from Ukraine military ?

What SpaceX is doing is preventing Ukraine from using Starlink to control drones on deep strikes into Russian territory. Ukraine is still using the satellites freely (literally, since SpaceX isn't charging them to my knowledge) for military purposes inside Ukraine. Much of Ukraine's air-defense network and its communication with frontline units is conducted over Starlink. SpaceX engineers have done extraordinary work preventing the Russians from jamming it.

That isn't a whole lot different than the United States government's refusal to export longer range ATACMS missiles for Ukrainian HIMARS, or its reluctance to export jet aircraft that can be used for deep strikes into Russia. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the decision to throttle Starlink access was made in conjunction with the Pentagon.

Of course Elon isn't exactly popular in certain political circles right now, so it's no surprise that some people and some media outlets will try to use this decision against him and his companies.

Quote:India and China have become the largest buyers of Russian oil as Western nations restrict purchases and impose sanctions.

As is so often the case, the phrase "Western nations" basically means Europe. The United States has never been a big importer of Russian energy. So while we talk big about sanctions on Russian energy exports, it means little in real life.

It's true that the EU countries have reduced their Russian energy imports dramatically.

But the fact is that Russian energy exports are roughly what they were before the war. China is buying more, but not as dramatic an increase as one would expect.

The big news is India. They imported very little energy from Russia prior to the war. But today, they have pretty much replaced Europe as a major Russian energy export market.

So Russia is doing just fine as far as their biggest export product goes (increases in world energy prices actually help Russia) while Europe is scrambling to make up the difference and the US struts around signalling its own wonderful virtue.

(Feb 18, 2023 10:24 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think that Putin has destroyed Russia. But there's a stronger argument that he's badly damaged Russia's conventional military war-fighting ability, or at least displayed its already existing weakness for the whole world to see.

The question now is whether they learn from those deficiencies and address their many problems so as to grow stronger in the future.

Actually, the whole world can learn from this war, really the first between two technologically advanced peer-adversaries since World War II. What works better than expected? (ATGMs, long range precision artillery, drones) and what works worse (Russian command and control, Russian logistics, Russian training and motivation, conventional armor against modern ATGMs) I expect that lots of countries will be changing how their own armies look and operate after this instructive demonstration war.

the display of the vast level of systemic corruption in russia is surprising many people.
russias vast amount of corruption is ensuring that russia is incapable of winning.
corrupt system
corrupt society
corrupt leadership

A USAF E-3B Sentry AWACS aircraft and an RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic intelligence aircraft are flying racetrack patterns over southeast Poland near the Ukrainian and Belarussian borders. A KC-135T tanker aircraft is also aloft to refuel them.

Speculation is that something has attracted their attention.

Source: https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1627442958436794369

Edit - It's been seven hours and they are still doing laps

(Feb 20, 2023 02:07 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]A USAF E-3B Sentry AWACS aircraft and an RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic intelligence aircraft are flying racetrack patterns over southeast Poland near the Ukrainian and Belarussian borders. A KC-135T tanker aircraft is also aloft to refuel them.

Speculation is that something has attracted their attention.

i think Lukashenko wants nukes
question is will putzler put nukes into Belarus before lukashenko agrees to invade ukraine

i think there is strong possibility that putzler will want to advertise nukes in Belarus
i expect russia is moving more air craft into Belarus thinking Ukraine wont target their air fields
no doubt some of those aircraft will be nuclear capable.

i would be thinking about increasing air defence in ukraine along the Belarusian border while deploying more MANPADS to eastern front forward defensive lines

cracks appearing in russian society
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64640183
How the conflict is creating family rifts in Russia

Quote:But a survey published in November 2022 by an independent Russian research group suggests it is dividing generations - 75% of respondents aged 40 and over said they supported the war, compared with 62% of those aged 18-24.

(Feb 20, 2023 02:07 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]A USAF E-3B Sentry AWACS aircraft and an RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic intelligence aircraft are flying racetrack patterns over southeast Poland near the Ukrainian and Belarussian borders. A KC-135T tanker aircraft is also aloft to refuel them.

Speculation is that something has attracted their attention.

A second E-3B AWACS has replaced the first. It's still doing laps over SE Poland.

This morning Ukrainian police blocked off several of the main streets in Kyiv. Big traffic jams. Then multiple motorcades with heavy escorts were seen moving in the cleared streets. Lots of Ukrainian speculation about what was happening.

The explanation seems to be that both the Italian PM and Biden are visiting Kyiv today. The unusual USAF activities probably are associated with that.



Biden's ride in Kyiv. It appears to be a lightly armored VIP Toyota Land Cruiser, not the heavily armored 'Beast' Presidents ride around in here in the US. (Tanks, disguised as cars.)

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status...4653796352

Fantastic accuracy
$100,000.00  boat up in flames

if practicable follow them back to where they come from then hit that building with artillery because its likely to be a small command post giving them orders.

The situation at Bakhmut continues to deteriorate, but the Ukrainians continue resisting fiercely and show no signs of pulling out the several thousand soldiers that they have in and around the town. But as Russia continues its slow bloody advance, the opportunities for an orderly Ukrainian withdrawal become more difficult. Many units on both sides have suffered something like 50% dead and wounded and are largely combat ineffective. But since it's happening on both sides, the balance remains the same and neither side can take advantage of it. Ukraine has closed Bakhmut both to civilians and to journalists. But they are still sending in reinforcements and 100+ tons of ammunition a day.

Many people have asked why the Russians (much of it Wagner in this case) continue to throw fighters at Bakhmut. It's just a small industrial city of no intrinsic imporance. I don't know.

But equally, why do the Ukrainians pour in thousands of fighters in hopes of holding onto it? They must consider it very important too. I don't know why.

Apparently both sides see it as key to the Ukrainian defense in that part of the front.

Interesting Twitter thread by a Ukrainian military officer about why Wagner forces perform better than regular Russian army forces. He attributes it to the way the Russian army still follows old Soviet military doctrine, where commanders (often in the rear and hence rather out-of-touch with what's actually happening) micromanage front-line units. This can extend to what kind of weapons and tactics the forces use, where they are allowed to dig their trenches and so on. If a lower level officer who is actually on the scene improvises to suit the situation that his unit encounters, he can be written up for insubordination.

He contrasts this Soviet-style way of doing things with what he describes as NATO military doctrine, which as he describes it is far more bottom-up than top-down in terms of small-scale battlefield tactics. Soldiers on the ground in the heat of battle are allowed to make decisions based on what they are encountering and what the enemy is doing.

Apparently one of the reasons for Wagner's success is that they are outside the formal Russian army command structure and small Wagner units have far more autonomy and ability to improvise on the fly.

This Ukrainian officer also notes that many high level Ukrainian army officers have decades of experience in the old Soviet-style system themselves, and have been slow to adapt to more fluid NATO-style tactics. But it's changing and it's changing more rapidly with the Ukrainian military command than it is with the Russians, which is working in the Ukrainians favor. He notes that the Ukrainians' recent victory at Vuhledar was partly the result of the Ukrainians using more flexible and improvisational tactics.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status...7461078018

(Feb 22, 2023 02:03 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]The situation at Bakhmut continues to deteriorate, but the Ukrainians continue resisting fiercely and show no signs of pulling out the several thousand soldiers that they have in and around the town. But as Russia continues its slow bloody advance, the opportunities for an orderly Ukrainian withdrawal become more difficult. Many units on both sides have suffered something like 50% dead and wounded and are largely combat ineffective. But since it's happening on both sides, the balance remains the same and neither side can take advantage of it. Ukraine has closed Bakhmut both to civilians and to journalists. But they are still sending in reinforcements and 100+ tons of ammunition a day.

Many people have asked why the Russians (much of it Wagner in this case) continue to throw fighters at Bakhmut. It's just a small industrial city of no intrinsic imporance. I don't know.

But equally, why do the Ukrainians pour in thousands of fighters in hopes of holding onto it? They must consider it very important too. I don't know why.

Apparently both sides see it as key to the Ukrainian defense in that part of the front. 

There is a railway station in bahkmut which ruzzia wants
additionally if bahkmut is held strongly it can be used as a rally point to push forward
ruzzia uses points to gather troops into a concentration point as a part of their doctrine
ruzzia has not got the technology to co-ordinate a wide spread force communication so rellys on troop concentration to get battle field strength.
im looking forward to GLSDB targeting those concentration points.
news of the JDAM- long range is awesome, 70kms range supposedly

personally i think ukraine needs to be freely giving up territory to save soldiers and maximize combined arms use in a defensive concentration of fire to soak up the Orc advance in tactical retreats to force ruzzia to move its troops without communication and without co-ordination or support of ammo & fire support.
how practical that is i don't know, i guess it depends on their ability to deliver ammo.
i still think counter battery fire is critically important to maintain.
scoot shoot n scoot ... always moving back out of range

what i notice is how spread out the Orcs are on front lines & it appears they now only gather in larger groups to make majour forward movements.
this means once ukraine is properly mechanised they will cut through the Orcs front lines like a hot knife through butter.
this will need to be carefully co-ordinated with counter battery fire
part of the key will be mechanised units being able to maintain fire cover over areas to suppress enemy ability to fire anti tank cannons and mortars as infantry dismount and seek out the filthy Orcs to eradicate them.

in field reconnaissance during advance by drones will be critically important to help spot any heavy machine guns or partly hidden tanks or mortar positions. and look for troop concentration points while utilizing the armored protection of ukraines infantry fighting vehicles suppressing the very front lines