The Russians still appear to be holding at Dudchany. There's a small tributary of the Dnipro that runs through the south side of this small town and the Russians have set up defensive positions south of the river and have blown up the bridge. The Ukrainians have entered the north side of town. So the Ukrainians are at least temporarily stopped here.
The story is different to the west. Months ago the Russians set up their defensive line at the Inhulets river, a small river that runs more of less parallel to the Dnipro to its west. That line was holding rather successfully and repelling lots of small Ukrainian attacks. But now that the Ukrainians have punched south along the Dnipro river road, these positions (and several thousand Russian troops) were in danger of being cut off. So the Russians seem to be evacuating these positions and many small farm towns that they previously held.
Of particular interest are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainians may have retaken the larger farm town of Snihurivka, the only significant town in Mykolaiv oblast that the Russians still held.
It seems to me that the Russians are in a very dangerous situation on the Kherson front, since a large withdrawl like this can easily turn into a rout. It hasn't so far, but it has all the makings.
Meanwhile, HIMARS continues to hit the bridges and ferries across the wide Dnipro.
running out of fuel for the tanks ?
cant retreat because they have no fuel ?
cant move around and fight because they have no fuel ?
"They're going to probably have to rely on the old Russian tactic of trading space for time. That's a technique of basically engaging in a fighting retreat, yielding territory to the enemy and grinding them out in a battle of attrition. That's not necessarily a losing strategy. It worked for them in the Second World War, but there's a key difference. In the Second World War they were yielding Russian territory, pulling the enemy deeper into their web. None of this is Russian territory, so that strategy may end up backfiring if it's the one they decide to pursue."
Due to logistics failure, and not even being supplied with sufficient clothing and goods from the outset, they themselves are going to be suffering from attrition when winter sets in.
Retreating all the way to the coastline and trying to hang on to the cities there doesn't necessarily offer comfort. The Sea of Azov gets icy, and aside from Crimea supposedly experiencing "mild winters", it doesn't sound like that part of the Black Sea abates temperatures on the coast that much, either.
The only "drawing them into their web" that seems possible is an ambush of Ukrainian forces with hidden firepower and explosive weapons, poison gas, or even tactical nukes. That would basically amount to a plan of "we're going to give up on the captured territory, but destroy it and the population, so that Ukraine doesn't win, either".
What's occurring right now genuinely looks like a justified kind of pusillanimity, rather than strategic deception.
(Oct 5, 2022 05:19 PM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]"They're going to probably have to rely on the old Russian tactic of trading space for time. That's a technique of basically engaging in a fighting retreat, yielding territory to the enemy and grinding them out in a battle of attrition. That's not necessarily a losing strategy. It worked for them in the Second World War, but there's a key difference. In the Second World War they were yielding Russian territory, pulling the enemy deeper into their web. None of this is Russian territory, so that strategy may end up backfiring if it's the one they decide to pursue."
Due to logistics failure, and not even being supplied with sufficient clothing and goods from the outset, they themselves are going to be suffering from attrition when winter sets in.
Retreating all the way to the coastline and trying to hang on to the cities there doesn't necessarily offer comfort. The Sea of Azov gets icy, and aside from Crimea supposedly experiencing "mild winters", it doesn't sound like that part of the Black Sea abates temperatures on the coast that much, either.
The only "drawing them into their web" that seems possible is an ambush of Ukrainian forces with hidden firepower and explosive weapons, poison gas, or even tactical nukes. That would basically amount to a plan of "we're going to give up on the captured territory, but destroy it and the population, so that Ukraine doesn't win, either".
What's occurring right now genuinely looks like a justified kind of pusillanimity, rather than strategic deception.
it's been said a few times now that the experienced Orcs have already been killed in the 60,000 dead Orcs to date.
The average Orc is not taught tactics or battlefield thinking, just blind obedience to power.
the replacement 1st wave might likely were patriotic narrow minded Orcs but they are the ones currently in command due to lack of command and those they are commanding have no training lack of equipment, no supply lines & no senior command on the ground
ALSO
it appears russia is reneging on payment to its own soldiers
there is tens of thousands of familys who have not been paid the wages from the dead
including financially dependent family members.
Hopefully we will see a lot more of this(russians surrendering)
near miss on Ukrainian convoy