Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Below is Mikael Valtersson's (Swedish defense analyst) map of what happened in Bakhmut today. Wagner continues to attack southward in the lower density residential area and apparently have reached the blue line in at least one place. The red arrows represent contested streets where soldiers from both sides are active. The small red and blue circles represent a post office (red) and a swimming pool (blue) where Ukrainian soldiers were holding out. Wagner appears to have taken the post office but the Ukrainians in the pool building are still fighting.

The red oval to the right indicates where Wagner is attacking into the "citadel" (Wagnerites call it the "nest"), the cluster of old Soviet high rise apartment buildings. Videos that Wagner has put out show them clearing at least one of these buildings room by room and firing from upper story windows.

The red square represents the approximate area that Wagner has taken in the last week, compared to the area of town the Ukrainians still hold.

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/stat...3931236353

The United States has confirmed that Ukraine used a Patriot missile battery to intercept a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile in the vicinity of Kyiv. It's believed that the Patriot missile used was a Pac-2 GEM-T variant, a model that's optimized with improved seeker and software for missile as opposed to aircraft intercepts. This appears to be the world's first intercept of a hypersonic cruise missile in actual combat.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...3337949192

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...7129921547

Other than a covered hole with a rifle sticking in the ground with a helmet on top, I guess Wagner has no retirement plan for their fighters. On the map there’s a red square drawn, no pun intended, indicating the area of ground Wagner has captured. How many casualties would a square like that represent, especially in house to house warfare? In H to H fights, who holds the advantage….the house occupier or attacker? This kind of fighting seems like a punch up the gut, so why can’t the flanks be utilized more? Surround and squeeze seems like a better idea than full frontal. Are the Ukrainian flanks that well defended?

Latest Bakhmut news has Ukraine sort-of on the offensive. While Wagner slowly pushes the Ukes out of Bakhmut, they have been attacking on Bakhmut's flanks. To the south they have pushed the regular Russian army further away from Chasiv Yar. And to the north, the Ukrainians have driven a wedge into Russian positions astride one of the two main roads in and out of Bakhmut. There was lots of triumphant talk about the Russians fleeing in disarray, but in reality they seem to have simply pulled back across open farm fields to a spot where the topography enabled them to better set up a defensive line.

The question remains what benefit there was to the Ukrainians in doing this. The answer may speculatively be that given the increasingly tenuous hold they have on the western edge of Bakhmut, they may be preparing an escape route for their several thousand soldiers still fighting in Bakhmut.

Mikael Valtersson's map of the Ukrainian moves on the north flank of Bakhmut. The Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of area labeled #1. Then the Russians withdrew out of exposed positions labeled #2. The north side of the wedge is a small lake that provides a natural barrier, the south side is the new Russian positions:



For their part, the Russians appear to have put several missiles into a major military supply depot in Khmelnitsky in western Ukraine, not far from Lviv. Massive explosions continued for hours as fuel tanks and ammunition cooked off. Reportedly, this site contained large quantities (hundreds of millions of Euros worth) of ammunition for tanks and armored vehicles supplied by Germany. There's also talk about supplies from Italy, Japan and Denmark being located there that included satellite and other communications gear.

The Ukrainians are saying that it was just a civilian factory and no big deal.

https://twitter.com/cramceleden74/status...0824313860

https://twitter.com/silvano_trotta/statu...6891021312

Satellite photo of the site that was hit prior to that strike. It definitely looks like an ammunition dump from above, given the dispersed locations surrounded by protective berms.

Today's Bakhmut news is that Wagner has taken about 1/3 of the "citadel" (Wagner calls it the "nest"). It's unclear whether this perhaps signals the beginning of a Ukrainian withdrawl from what little they still hold of Bakhmut.

Edit - Later information suggests that there are still active Ukrainian fighters in some of these buildings and the Russians are still unable to move freely in this area. So the area should more accurately be called 'contested' than 'taken'.

Mikael Valtersson's map

It's really starting to look to me like the Ukrainians have begun to evacuate the 5% of Bakhmut that they still hold. My guess is that's what their counterattack along the flanks was all about, to secure their troops a better way out.

But Progozhin says that there are still Ukrainians in maybe 1/4 of the highrise apartment buildings in the "nest", so much of the remaining bits of Bakhmut is still contested and heavy fighting continues.

In other news, the Russians appear to have launched new missile strikes at targets on the outskirts of Kyiv, and the Ukrainians were observed launching no less than 30 surface to air missiles in reply. Which suggests to me anyway that they are firing wildly which will only deplete their SAM stockpiles. And videos suggest that at least one of the batteries that launched the missiles ended up being hit.

About 90% of the SAMs that Ukraine has are S300's and Buks. They have been firing these at such a high rate that they will be running out around the end of the month, according to US estimates.

The US and Europe have been supplying them with more capable Western SAMs, but in much smaller quantities. There are speculations that the 30 missiles fired today over Kyiv were US Patriot missiles (they probably weren't). But if they were Patriot missiles at $5 million/missile x 30, that would be $150 million expended against one Russian attack.

Edit - An unnamed US Defense Dept official has supposedly told cnn that a Patriot Missile battery was damaged but not destroyed in these events. Which increases the likelihood that these 30 missiles were indeed Patriots.

The crazy 30 missile salvo in the video in the tweet below illustrates how the Ukrainians are firing off more US made missiles (GMLRS and possibly Patriots too) in weeks than the US can manufacture in a year. If Kyiv expects the American largesse to continue, it can only come from drawing down US military war-fighting ability.

The young Ukrainian woman who posted the video on Telegram that is reposted in the Tweet below was taken into custody by the Ukrainian secret police, since it's illegal in Ukraine to post video of air defense activity. The pro-Ukrainian Western propaganda machine, notably the allegedly CIA-related "nafo fellas" information-warfare cult etc.) is up in arms, flooding the discussion boards in what is obviously an orchestrated campaign of sarcasm and insults, in hopes of drowning out any narrative but their own. They are loudly demanding that nobody retweet the video, which they are denouncing as Russian propaganda.

https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/1...7938162690

I think that the Russian plan might be to send in wave after wave of cheaper missiles and drones, in hopes of drawing the Ukrainians into firing off lots of their more scarce and valuable Western-supplied surface to air missiles. That's a win-win for Russia - if the Russian missile gets through to its target, the target is hit. If the Ukrainians stop a cheaper missile with a more valuable SAM, the trade is in Russia's favor. The Russian hope is probably that Ukrainian air defenses will become depleted this way and Russia can finally bring its large air force into action without losing large numbers of planes to antiaircraft missiles.

The anticipated Ukrainian Spring (now Summer) offensive will have far less chance of success if Russia has control of the air above the battlefield

Here's what appears to be Russian drone video showing the last parts of Bakhmut that the Ukrainians hold. The video, which is probably meant for domestic Russian audiences, is pretty clearly Wagner publicity. (The Russian voice is Progozhin calling out the Russian Ministry of Defense in rather obscene terms.) But it does show the geography depicted in the maps in the earlier posts and gives an idea of the distances.

A week ago Prigozhin was threatening to pull out of Bakhmut if Wagner didn't start receiving the artillery shells they had been allotted. Well, it's pretty clear from this video that he's received them, since the last Ukrainian occupied corner of the highrise apartment area is shown being blasted. The edge of Bakhmut is close beyond with the edge of town and the open farmland beyond clearly visible. It's a small area.

My guess is that the Ukrainians will be out of Bakhmut in a matter of days. I believe that Ukraine is already withdrawing its fighters in an orderly fighting withdrawal (a difficult military maneuver if it isn't to become a rout), though they haven't announced it officially. But it's pretty obvious from what we see here. They seem to have little choice.

That still leaves us with the question whether any of this was worth it. Is Bakhmut really so important that it's worth thousands of dead and wounded, either to the attackers or the defenders? (They probably asked the same question about Verdun in World War I.)

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/stat...6508116999

(May 14, 2023 07:50 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]For their part, the Russians appear to have put several missiles into a major military supply depot in Khmelnitsky in western Ukraine, not far from Lviv. Massive explosions continued for hours as fuel tanks and ammunition cooked off. Reportedly, this site contained large quantities (hundreds of millions of Euros worth) of ammunition for tanks and armored vehicles supplied by Germany. There's also talk about supplies from Italy, Japan and Denmark being located there that included satellite and other communications gear.

The Ukrainians are saying that it was just a civilian factory and no big deal.

Satellite photos...

Before



After

Bakhmut has fallen. (More or less.) Wagner fighters are celebrating.

And it's been announced that beginning May 25, Wagner forces will begin withdrawing from Bakhmut for rest, resupply and then reassignment to new missions, with the regular Russian army taking over for them in Bakhmut.

For its part, Ukraine is claiming that Bakhmut isn't taken and that fighting there continues. And indeed, gunfire could still be heard in the distant background in Progozhin's victory announcement.

Mikael Valtersson's map shows what he believes the current situation is. The last Ukrainian strongpoint is a small factory called Ilyus Stov. (Did they make stoves, or does 'stov' mean something different in Russian/Ukrainian?) There's a small residential neighborhood of single family houses next to it that's contested, with soldiers from both sides present.

Apparently these last Ukrainians are serving as a covering force as the rest of the Ukrainians make their escape. I expect them to leave within a day.

As I expected yesterday, Bakhmut appears to be entirely in Russian hands today.