Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Reports are coming in that the Ukrainians are launching larg(ish) attacks on the Zahorhizhia and Donetsk fronts with multiple armored brigades committed.

If this is the Ukrainian offensive, it's underwhelming so far and the Russians seem to have successfully halted its advances.

My guess is that this is just reconaissance in force, so see what kind of defenses the Russians have prepared and where they are weakest.

Bottom line is that it's still very unclear what is happening.

---

Don't look at the video in the tweet below if you are in any way squeamish. It's awfully gruesome. It's video of a Ukrainian army medic in action triaging a bunch of seriously wounded soldiers. Bloody, body parts blown off etc. One guy says "kill me, kill me". A lot of these guys will never be the same again, crippled and disfigured for life. The ones that aren't dead, that is.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/16...8267266049

(Jun 5, 2023 03:04 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Reports are coming in that the Ukrainians are launching larg(ish) attacks on the Zahorhizhia and Donetsk fronts with multiple armored brigades committed.

If this is the Ukrainian offensive, it's underwhelming so far and the Russians seem to have successfully halted its advances.

My guess is that this is just reconaissance in force, so see what kind of defenses the Russians have prepared and where they are weakest.

Bottom line is that it' still very unclear what is happening.

---

Don't look at the video in the tweet below if you are in any way squeamish. It's awfully gruesome. It's video of a Ukrainian army medic in action triaging a bunch of seriously wounded soldiers. Bloody, body parts blown off etc. One guy says "kill me, kill me". A lot of these guys will never be the same again, crippled and disfigured for life. The ones that aren't dead, that is.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/16...8267266049

hopefully this will force ruzzia to move orcs and equipment.

with storm shadow & HIMARS ready for a staging point for any Orc-Armour or orcs

i am beginning to think maybe its better Ukraine waits until they have GLSDB & F-16's that way they can engage in a long range assault of orc positions and supplys during autumn with the possibility of tracked vehicles being able to be used in the freeze of winter once ruzzia supplys have been well and truly smashed and orc morale is at its lowest.
a limited armored attack and retreat saving the Ukrainian troops for a spring offensive into well smashed positions which orcs likely have run away from.

meanwhile we really need more patriot battery's from the usa

more Armour more better
need Patriot systems and manpads up with the armour

we can see that Armour in Ukraine hands is a battlefield winner against orcs
better to roll over them(that survive) and then retreat and have a slow advance with troops lead by Armour for a 2nd time to route any that have been missed(which they have done on a few occasions very successfully).
dont get out of the vehicle 1st wave attack to smash holes and break up rear lines and go for artillery.
then retreat then slow & careful clear with troops lead by Armour.

if GLSDB can arrive before the end of summer then maybe an autumn pre push probing attack to smash some front lines

---

(Jun 4, 2023 07:43 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]though Ukrainian artillery is shelling the small city mercilessly.

Reports are Ruzzia is using phosphorous on its own city and shelling their own city.
reports coming out from different sources.

There's increasing speculation that yesterday's unsuccessful Ukrainian attacks might have been the promised offensive.

Ukrainian official media aren't saying much of anything about it (the Ukrainians rarely if ever acknowledge defeats), while the Russians seem very pleased with themselves. The Russians say that 8 Ukrainian battalions attacked Russian positions at three places along the southern Zaporizhia and Donetsk fronts. (That's 4,000+ men.) Apparently the Russians tore them up with artillery and aircraft. The Russians claim to have destroyed a minimum of 10 tanks and 40 other armored vehicles and "eliminated" at least 250 Ukrainian fighters (KIAs and serious WIAs that require immediate evacuation). If that's true, less serious WIAs might be considerably higher. While not exceedingly high, that's just a single day that only netted the attackers less than a kilometer in most places. If that casualty rate continues for multiple days, these units' combat effectiveness will decline.

Observers are noting that this is perhaps the first time that the Ukrainians have gone up against dug-in well-prepared defenders. And they seem to have performed as badly as the Russians have performed going up against Ukrainian fortifications to the east near Donetsk city. What's more, the Russians had complete control of the air over this battlefield and had a major advantage in artillery. Those may have been the decisive advantage yesterday.

That being said, 4,000 attackers is only about 1/10 of what was expected to spearhead Ukraine's big offensive. If this was the big offensive, it was distinctly underwhelming. So it might indeed have been a reconnaisance-in-force testing the Russian defenses. If so, the Ukrainian planners can't be pleased by what they discovered. The Russians didn't panic and run. They deployed their artillery and airforce skillfully. The Ukrainians need air and artillery superiority to make their grand offensive work.

Institute for the Study of War graphic

More reports today that the Ukrainian attacks continue. The Ukrainians aren't saying anything and all the news is coming from the Russian side. To hear the Russians tell it, the Ukrainians managed to take a small farming village, but lost nine French supplied AMX-10 RC armored cars (like small wheeled tanks) doing it. (Wikipedia says that while 40 were promised to Ukraine, only 14 had been delivered as of February.) Photographs confirm several destroyed or abandoned. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian Leopard-2's have been seen in combat as well.

It's still very unclear what Ukraine is doing. These attacks are much smaller than the Spring/Summer Offensive was expected to be, but larger than one would expect feints or recon-by-force operations. Ukraine is taking significant casualties doing it, whatever it is.

Here's Rybar's version. They are Russians and pro-Russian but they report their side's failures when they happen and are considered reliable. (The Ukrainians only report their own side's successes and sadly, most Western media just repeat the Ukrainian briefings.)

Rybar is reporting Ukrainian attacks all along the eastern Donetsk oblast front, from north of Soledar, through Bakhmut, to just west of the larger city of Horlivka, in addition to attacks at multiple locations along the southern front. The Russians say they have halted all of these thrusts and are boasting about the losses they have inflicted on the Ukrainians.

I still don't understand what the Ukrainians think they are doing. Probing for Russian weaknesses through which to pour their Ukrainian reserves? (One would think that access to US intelligence including satellite imagery would have given them that information at much lower cost.) Unfortunately (for Kyiv) all these attacks appear to be too small to achieve the desired breakthrough. If all these forces were combined into one attack force and focused on breaking through in one chosen spot, they could probably do it and thereby throw the Russians into confusion that could result in another rout. All this piecemeal stuff seems to be accomplishing is racking up lots of Ukrainian casualties and destroyed equipment.

Big news: Multiple sources on both Ukrainian and Russian sides are saying that somebody has just blown up the Nova Khakovka dam on the Dnipr river, upstream from Kherson. Both sides are blaming each other.

I suspect the Russians because they have more to gain. The largest populated place down river is Ukrainian controlled Kherson city so flooding would be less damaging to the Russian side. And flooding downstream might disrupt attempts by the Ukrainian army to make a river crossing as part of their offensive. Apparently the Ukrainians have already crossed the river in the low-lying wetlands areas where flooding will probably be worst. On the other hand, it might flood out the first line of Russian trenches and defensive bunkers as well.

(Edit: There are unconfirmed videos purporting to show water several inches deep in some of the streets of Kherson city.

I was worried about this happening last November. See here



Rybar's version of the Kherson front

Before



After

Multiple reports of Ukrainian attacks at Bakhmut. They have had some success pushing the Russians back in open country north and west of town, including thrusting through to the village of Berkhivka. Again, while the Ukrainians seem to be having success at Bakhmut, this attack is far smaller than their Spring Offensive was expected to be.

It's conceivable that Ukraine is attacking at many places along the front in hopes of spreading the Russian defenders out, with the main attack still to come somewhere the Russians are weakest. Except that doing that also spreads the Ukrainians out and consumes forces perhaps better saved for the main assault.



There's still lots of consternation and angry finger-pointing about the destruction of the Kharkovka dam.

I'm gradually coming around to the idea that neither side blew it up and that it just collapsed on its own. We all remember that the Ukrainians attacked the road on top of the dam repeatedly with HIMARS when they were trying to interrupt Russian supplies to soldiers west of the river. So the dam might have been cracked then and its structural integrity compromised.

A good argument against the Russians blowing it is that most of the flood plain along the river is on the Russian (left/east) side of the river, where flooding would take out the first line of prepared Russian defenses (which they seem to have been hastily evacuating today as the waters rose).

At the southern front, the Russians seem to have pushed the Ukrainians back to their start-line and have retaken the kilometer or so that the Ukrainians took a day or two ago. The Ukrainians seem to be making no progress pushing through to the Sea of Azov coast and cutting land routes to Crimea (assuming that's their objective, as widely expected).

(Jun 6, 2023 06:50 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]...There's still lots of consternation and angry finger-pointing about the destruction of the Kharkovka dam.

I'm gradually coming around to the idea that neither side blew it up and that it just collapsed on its own. We all remember that the Ukrainians attacked the road on top of the dam repeatedly with HIMARS when they were trying to interrupt Russian supplies to soldiers west of the river. So the dam might have been cracked then and its structural integrity compromised.

A good argument against the Russians blowing it is that most of the flood plain along the river is on the Russian (left/east) side of the river, where flooding would take out the first line of prepared Russian defenses (which they seem to have been hastily evacuating today as the waters rose)....

Well if you look at the outcome you could consider if civilians had been evacuated beforehand or not. It's known that the dam being blown would reduce the water levels and put the nuclear plant at risk. Notibly Russia evacuted people from the nearby villages to the power station a month or so ago, so it's likely they know there is a risk to the plant, either through the prospect of the Ukrainian offensive or through knowing how they would handle the start of an offensive (by blowing the dam)

Ruzzia is evil personified


note ruzzian mine fields have been flooded
so there is live anti tank & anti personal mines mixed in with the flooded areas.
this will make clean up deadly
hopefully someone is plotting those mine fields to get a general idea of where the mines would wash to.