Russian Ukraine Invasion

Reports are coming in that the so-called Russian Volunteer Corps has once again crossed the border into Russia's Belgorod Oblast near the town of Shebekino (population ~40,000). Heavy Ukrainian shelling in the town with lots of damage. Three local civilians dead and the police station is on fire.

The attackers appear to have come across the border in Western armored vehicles like last time. The Russians claim to have stopped them outside Shebekino where serious fighting is taking place. There is video of Russian rocket launchers firing off.

It appears that these attackers haven't been able to advance very far past the border checkpoint. They are having notably less success than they had a week or so ago. Probably because the Russian Army was ready for them this time. Heavy shelling continues in Shebekino.

There are unconfirmed reports that a second border crossing has been attempted a few kilometers to the west.

Video of Russian tanks headed towards Shebekino in the Tweet below.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...3130570754

Word coming in that civilians in Shebekino (population ~40,000) are being evacuated, probably because of the shelling it's been receiving. The attackers' ground advance towards the small city appears to have been halted just a short distance from the border.

So the attackers appear to have tried coming across the border a few kilometers to the west, where a rural settlement called Novaya Tavolzhanka (population ~5,000) is under attack. This is a very strung out place consisting of houses along the rural roads, and some of those roads are very close to the border.

What purports to be video of the attackers driving down one of those roads.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1...3165154305

Both towns visible on this map. Shebekino in the upper right.

Since they seem so wastefully suicidal and martyrdom oriented, it's hard to imagine Ukraine supplying these anti-Putin paramilitary units with precious arms, equipment, vehicles. (Yet who else? The West surely isn't doing it directly.) Granted, they preoccupy Russia with a mild distraction, but that's all it is. Unless this activity literally inspires and attracts other extremist recruits in significant numbers. Regardless, the latter have to leave Russia first in order to be effectively rebellious and organized (training, guns, hardware, etc).

(Jun 2, 2023 02:41 AM)C C Wrote: Since they seem so wastefully suicidal and martyrdom oriented, it's hard to imagine Ukraine supplying these anti-Putin paramilitary units with precious arms, equipment, vehicles. (Yet who else? The West surely isn't doing it directly.) Granted, they preoccupy Russia with a mild distraction, but that's all it is. Unless this activity literally inspires and attracts other extremist recruits in significant numbers. Regardless, the latter have to leave Russia first in order to be effectively rebellious and organized (training, guns, hardware, etc).

they likely had access to observation information on orc numbers and vehicles for some time
so they know where to go & what they can over power.
they are retreating often too which shows they seek to survive to fight another day which is good.
they have also reportedly destroyed around 15 artillery pieces & seized orc armored vehicles.

they sound like they have done really well.

hopefully they have some n-laws & stugna-p's to take care of new orc Armour that turns up.

Ruzzia will need to mount an offensive to try and get rid of them which will make the orcs easy pickings from a distance.
assuming the legion are well set up.

they are a raider force rather than an occupier force given their current numbers. they need new recruits which is hopefully coming from ruzzia & hopefully some ruzzian oligarchs will get behind them with funding and networking.
if they want to save ruzzia putin has to go and along with some of the government and military.

The Counter Offensive is close at hand.

The Ukrainians have struck a warehouse at the port in occupied Berdyansk with British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. These are very good long range cruise missiles with larger warheads than the American Tomahawks. Presumably the Ukrainians believe the Russians were importing military supplies through the port and the warehouse.

Does Putin make all major military decisions? Is there mutual distrust between Putin and his generals? Do Putin’s generals have a derogatory nickname for him akin to Hitler’s Bohemian Corporal moniker?

(Jun 3, 2023 08:40 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: Does Putin make all major military decisions? Is there mutual distrust between Putin and his generals? Do Putin’s generals have a derogatory nickname for him akin to Hitler’s Bohemian Corporal moniker?

Putins Generals are elitists who grew up during the time of massive corruption and classism
they have proven to be completely useless as military commanders.

They are hopelessly corrupt and a study in abject failure.

the only way they keep their power & job is by doing what putin commands.

---

(Jun 3, 2023 06:13 AM)Yazata Wrote: The Ukrainians have struck a warehouse at the port in occupied Berdyansk with British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. These are very good long range cruise missiles with larger warheads than the American Tomahawks. Presumably the Ukrainians believe the Russians were importing military supplies through the port and the warehouse.

Fabulous
They would have been moving stolen looted items and ammunition and stolen grain through there.
i hope they destroyed their administration building too.

if an oil tanker pulls up to the dock i hope they hit it & set it on fire docked to the wharf.
if they can sink a ship that is docked to the cranes they will shut down the entire port
all those Orcs working there who thought they had a safe good job dealing in weapons and stolen looted ukrainian products will now be worried about going to work.
excellent work.
full points for bringing the war home to the Terrorists

RU Wrote:full points for bringing the war home to the Terrorists

A fair point slipped in at the end - in the eyes of (most) of the world Putin is the terrorist.

Lots of rumors on the internet that the Ukrainian Spring (now Summer) offensive is set to start soon. I don't know the sources or how credible it is.

And fighting continues in Russia's Belgorod border region, with little change in the last couple of days.

The Ukrainians have still been unable to enter Shebekino, though Ukrainian artillery is shelling the small city mercilessly. Power and utilities are out, fires are burning etc. I believe the Russians have evacuated its civilian population and rushed in their own soldiers from where they were held in reserve (Belgorod city probably). Soldiers can't be stationed everywhere along the long border, so they are held back a ways and respond to wherever border crossings occur.

The Ukrainians continue to try to take the smaller town of Novaya Tavolzhanka a few km west of Shebekino, where fighting is said to be intense. It doesn't look like they are having much success advancing out of the southern outskirts right along the border.

I've started calling the attackers 'Ukrainians' since they appear to be special units attached to Ukrainian military intelligence. Military intelligence seems to have become home for small militias and military units that aren't part of the regular Ukrainian army. Ukraine calls them "Special Forces", though they mean something different than the US Delta Force, Navy Seals or the British SAS. They include private armies associated with various Ukrainian political parties and oligarchs. There are also multiple units composed of foreign volunteers (Russia calls them mercenaries). The 'Freedom of Russia Legion' and the 'Russian Volunteer Corps' are two of those. These two Russian volunteer units are taking heavy casualties, so the 'Polish Volunteer Corps' has been sent in to reinforce them. (Which explains the videos where ostensible Ukrainian soldiers are speaking perfect Polish.)

Given the Ukrainian army artillery support they are receiving, the fact that Ukraine is supplying them with Western made equipment and given that the whole thing seems to be a Ukrainian Military Intelligence operation, I'm calling them 'Ukrainians'.

Here's a satellite photo of Novaya Tavolzhanka with NASA data superimposed from a fire-fighting satellite that detects presence of flames. (It's used in fighting forest fires and probably has been busy over Canada recently.) The red squares aren't necessarily totally in flames, it just means flames have been detected in that area.

It looks like both sides are shelling each other, with fires on the Ukrainian side of the border as well as the Russian side. Given that each side wouldn't call in artillery on the heads of their own men, the map gives an indication of where each side thinks the enemy (or its equipment, supplies etc. are located). With that in mind, it looks like the Russian defenses are at the southern edge of the main part of Novaya Tavolzhanka, which suggests that the Ukrainians have still been unable to enter or take most of the small town. They may or may not be in the area at the lower left. This kind of satellite data is one of the best examples of Open Source Intelligence.