Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

The Ukrainians aren't saying anything, but several Russian channels are saying that Ukrainian tank and artillery attacks have dramatically increased this evening on the Zaporizhzhia front. Large numbers of Ukrainian tanks are trying to break through near the town of Orekhov.

One says:

"I think now we can already talk about the beginning of the offensive announced by Ukraine for so long... It's happening, Good luck to all."

Another

"The offensive has begun. We have numbers. Wishing steadfastness to men in trenches. We're not sleeping."

[Yazata]

Russian sources again sound very pleased with themselves. They say that "unprecedented numbers" of their aircraft are in action over Zaporizhzhia. The Ukrainian assault is said to be faltering. If that's true, this time it may have been Russian minefields that did the trick. The Russians not only have air and artillery superiority, they have also had time to lay extensive minefields.

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[Yazata]

Things have quieted down in the last few hours, but large numbers of Ukrainian forces are massed and more thrusts are expected. Very heavy artillery continues from both sides.

As the Russians describe it, the Ukrainians were just throwing away their soldiers in human wave attacks into minefields and kill-zones.

Opinion is growing that Kyiv was surprised by the resistance they met. Ukraine (and their foreign supporters) seem to have fallen for their own propaganda, buying into idea that the Russian army would just fall apart and flee in disorder when pressure was applied. That certainly hasn't happened so far.

Ironically, underestimating one's opponent is precisely the same mistake the Russians initially made in February 2022. They expected the Ukrainian army to just fall apart and that their forces would occupy Kyiv within a week. And Russia was shocked by how well Ukraine fought.

The area of Zaporizhzhia the Ukrainians are now attacking has had months to prepare and features defense in depth with multiple defense lines. If Ukraine masses enough numerical superiority at a single point to break through, they will just face the next defense line. Assuming they can break through all the Russian defense lines, their losses doing it might be crippling for the Ukrainian army.

The next few days will probably decide the direction of the war for the rest of 2023, and perhaps the war as a whole. If the Ukrainians can break through the Russians at acceptable cost and then cut off Crimea by land, it will be a major victory for Ukraine (but not the end of the war). That's still possible, this thing isn't decided yet.

But if they fail to break through, or manage to break through but only at a cost that bleeds and cripples the Ukrainian army, Zelensky's dream of expelling Russians from all of the land that Ukraine claims will start to seem like a fantasy. Russia might even be emboldened to attack elsewhere and to try to grab even more of Ukraine. Pressure both at home in Ukraine and from Ukraine's foreign supporters would start to grow towards accepting a negotiated end to the war. Which would mean giving Russia some of what they want, including the annexed oblasts.

Analysis of Russian defenses where Ukraine is attacking by a Finnish reserve officer:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/16555...51238.html

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[Yazata]

Several Ukrainian officials have told the Washington Post that the long-awaited offensive has indeed begun. And Western made armor has made its appearance on the battlefield. Russia has released drone video of columns of German-made Leopard-2A4 tanks being destroyed. It appears that advancing Western tanks are just as vulnerable to modern anti-tank rockets as Russian tanks proved to be last year.

The rest of the world is learning lots of lessons from watching this war, the first between technologically advanced peer-adversaries in many decades. One of the lessons will be the vulnerability of armored vehicles to modern antitank weaponry. Another lesson is the value of relatively cheap drones.

Several years ago the United States Marine Corps announced that they were retiring all of their heavy tanks. At the time everyone said that was crazy. Maybe the Marines knew something.

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[Yazata]

Heavy fighting continues on the Zaphorizhia front. Most information continues to come from the Russian side and Russian reports are coming in that the Ukrainians have breached the first Russian defense line and are advancing on the second and main defense line.

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[Yazata]

Hard to tell what's happening. (Fog of war and all that.) Most information is still coming from the Russian side and the Russians seem quite pleased with how well their defenses are doing. Presumably if Russia started losing in a big way, their side would go quiet and the Ukrainians would start talking up their own successes.

Very unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainians have been forced back closer to their start line and the Russians are reconstituting their first defense line. The Ukrainians do seem to have broken through that first line in several places, threatening to surround remaining Russian defenders on the first line. But those fighters continued to fight and didn't panic, while Russian mine fields, attack helicopters, anti-tank rockets and massed artillery chewed up the advancing Ukrainians so badly that they were forced to pull back, and the Russians recovered many of their lost positions.

So thousands of fighters are probably dead and many armored vehicles have been lost, while the front line hasn't really moved more than a few kilometers.

Military commentators have been noting how the Ukrainian armor has been advancing through minefields with mine-clearing vehicles in front, clearing a narrow passage while tanks and infantry fighting vehicles follow behind in a row. This sets them up for destruction by anti-tank weaponry and the Ukrainians seem to be suffering losses similar to those suffered by road-bound single-file Russian armored columns early in the war. One of the big advantages of anti-tank mine fields seems to be that it forces enemy armor into narrow columns that make them much more vulnerable.

This is the result. The prevalence of Western armor suggests that these vehicles were from one of Ukraine's elite military units, equipped and trained by NATO. So the Ukrainians seem to be throwing their best units into the battle as their spear-head, without their forces rolling invincibly over the Russians like many in the Western media seem to have expected.

But as many current and retired military officers point out, these kind of scenes occur early in any large military offensive and the jury is still out on who will ultimately win. But suffice to say that whoever wins, it will be a bloody victory.

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[Yazata]

Several European countries are performing rush recruitment for medical doctors, nurses and paramedics.

While there's speculation that they might be headed to Ukraine to serve as battlefield medics, I think that it's much more likely that the most serious wounded will be evacuated from Ukraine to hospitals elsewhere in Europe. The flow of wounded soldiers is probably exceeding Ukraine's medical capacity.

[Yazata]

Reports today (Saturday June 10) say that the Ukrainians have attacked yet again and have once again penetrated the Russians' first defensive line at a different place along the Zaphorizhia front. The Ukrainians' supporters have suddenly come alive on the internet and have started boasting about how the Russians are running away. I'd guess that means that they are pulling back from positions that have been flanked.

Maybe the Ukrainians are achieving a breakthrough, or maybe not. Time will tell.

[stryder]

It would suck to be Russians in the frontline, mainly because the frontline is dialed in by artillery incase of breaches. The wrong message or signal (such as being overrun) would likely cause Russian artillery to fire on their own positions.

[Yazata]

Sunday June 11.

Very heavy fighting overnight along the western end of the Zaphorizhia front. Reports (again, mostly from the Russian side) suggest that the Ukrainian attackers again had no success breaking through the Russians' forward defense positions. The 47th Mechanized Brigade of the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU), the elite NATO equipped unit that got beat up earlier, didn't take part and is apparently receiving attrition replacements and reinforcements.

A second focus of attack is a considerable distance to the east, along the Zaphorizhia-Donetsk border. Here the Ukrainians have had more success breaking through and taking some small settlements and the Ukrainian supporters are crowing about it on the internet. The Russian side is less impressed though. Their argument is that the Ukrainians have advanced into a shallow valley with Russians still in control of the ridges on either side. These Russians are bristling with antitank guided weapons and are almost daring the Ukrainians to drive armored vehicles down the valley where they can be attacked from both sides.

It should probably also be said that all this is still a considerable ways north of the main Russian defense line.

The Russians sounded a little scared last night, but sound more pleased with themselves Sunday morning. They are still holding and their strategy of forcing the Ukrainians to try to break through in concentrated wedges that make the grouped-together Ukrainian forces vulnerable to artillery and air strikes seems to still be working.

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The western focus of fighting is south of Orikhiv trying to punch through to Tokmak (the boxed area on the map below). The Ukrainians are still fighting the forward Russian positions and haven't yet reached the main Russian defense line. I assume that if the Ukrainians manage to take well defended Tokmak, their plan is to advance through the city of Melitopol and on to Crimea.

The eastern focus is east of the Zaphorizhia/Donetsk border west of the town of Velyka Novosilka. (At the northward bulge in the Russian lines.) Here too, the attackers haven't reached the main Russian line. The notional plan here seems to be to take the two main Sea of Azov ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk.

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