Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

Reports are coming in that Ukraine continues to take Russian positions in the eastern focus of attack. So they are making some progress there, even if it is small.

But it comes at a high price.

Finland donated six Leopard 2R mine-clearing vehicles (a specialized variant on the Leopard 2 tank) to Ukraine. And here are three of them, blown up in the same field.

[Image: FyX3a3HWcAIWlrP?format=jpg&name=small]

[Yazata]

Here's War_Mapper's version of the situation at the eastern focus of attack.

[Image: FyYi9nXWYAEmyjS?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

Here's Rybar's version of the same thing. They are a Russian source, but they show Ukraine having taken more territory than War_Mapper, which is more conservative and shows most of the area that Rybar concedes, as 'grey zone'/contested.

[Image: FyXte6fWwAMOWHs?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

And here's War_Mapper's version of the whole offensive on the southern front.

[Image: FyYhKb2WcAEsDK5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Yazata]

Monday June 12 - no word of any big changes this morning.

The main fighting seems to be at the eastern focus of attack. Ukraine has been boasting of taking several small settlements (little more than farms with just a few buildings). The story they tell seems to be that the Russians are running away.

Except that it seems to be a strategy being played by the Russian 127th Motor Rifle Division: the handful of Russian defenders in these exposed and indefensible places pull out, then heavy artillery is called in on where they just were an hour before, then they attack back in. Several locations have changed hands repeatedly in that pullout-bash-return way.

All in all there's been all kinds of Sturm und Drang, but little change on the map.

[Yazata]

Tuesday June 13 - no dramatic changes that I'm aware of - fighting continues, tiny dots on the map change hands, but the bigger picture doesn't really change all that much.

The Ukrainians still aren't saying much officially, but I'm sensing growing anxiety among Ukraine's loud contingent of supporters on Twitter, given that Ukraine's long-awaited offensive (with all its NATO equipment) was supposed to have reached the Azov Sea coast by now.

Maybe it ultimately will, but right now the Ukrainian offensive appears to be underperforming much like Russia's initial February 2022 attack did. (Which was supposed to have taken Kyiv within a week.)

The world's militaries will be drawing lots of lessons from watching this war.

Today's situation map from War_Mapper. The offensive started southwards from Orikhiv towards Tokmak. But after having almost no success there, the focus of the Ukrainian offensive has shifted to eastwards to a section of front south of Velyka Novosilka. The small village of Makarivka reportedly has changed hands five times in the last 48 hours. The Ukrainians currently occupy it (again).

[Image: FyjfMO5WIAEJmZl?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Yazata]

Wednesday June 14 - no movements on the map to speak of. There's still intense fighting here and there though.

I start to wonder how long Ukraine wants to keep their offensive going, given that by all accounts it's going nowhere. In my opinion they should probably call it off and save the lives of their soldiers and preserve what remains of their best NATO equipment.

I suppose that they figure that they are killing lots of Russians and destroying lots of Russian equipment. Of course Russia is a much bigger country better able to absorb the personnel losses. Ukraine has a much smaller arms industry than Russia so is much less able to make up the equipment losses. So Ukraine is far more dependent of foreign financial aid and supplies of armaments. Which probably explains why Zelensky might fear that if his long anticipated offensive fails badly, foreign support for continuing his war might start to weaken. 

An interesting development today is that Russian sources have published what they purport is the whole Ukrainian battle plan for their offensive, in outline form supposedly intended to be briefed to Ukrainian commanders. I have no idea whether this stuff is real, though it is consistent with what was seen on the battlefield. The thing is that if Russian commanders already knew the Ukrainian battle plan, including which units were going to attack where, and what their responsibilities were, the Russians would have had a huge advantage.

Here's a map from the plan, showing how Ukraine intended their attack to unfold. It was to start south from Orikhiv towards Tokmak. (This is where the Ukranians initially attacked.) It was supposed to have defeated the Russian first line of defense in 3 days. (They did penetrate it in a few places, but were thrown back at great cost in men and equipment.) They were supposed to have defeated the second and main Russian line of defense in 6 days. (The offensive is now seven days old and they have never even approached this objective.) They were supposed to have reached the Sea of Azov coast in 8 days, cutting off Crimea from land communications with Russia.

[Image: FyntiYuagAAJFJC?format=png&name=large]

[C C]

Probably time for the US and Europe to stop feeding what now looks like a reality impaired desire to take back was taken. Either Ukraine uses the arms and equipment for protecting what it still has left or else the flow stops. Prolonged guerrilla warfare could still be possible in terms of encouraging insurgents in the oblasts annexed by Russia to do something for themselves -- sowing discord, sabotage, assassinations, etc. With a helping hand in whatever way possible.

[Yazata]

It's Russian trolling, but it's really good!

By RT:

https://twitter.com/21WIRE/status/1669243790861762561

---

Thursday June 15 - another day with few if any developments. But unofficial Russian sources are saying that Ukrainian armored forces are gathering near Orikiv and that the Russian command anticipates that the Ukrainians are preparing to have another go at punching through.

[Yazata]

Friday June 16 - Rybar is claiming that Ukrainian armored forces attacked last night south of Orikiv, captured some fields and a few buildings, and (according to Rybar) got thoroughly torn up by Russian aviation and retreated again. There is some evidence for the truth of this, including Russian photos of many dead Ukrainians.

For his part, Putin is claiming that Ukraine has already lost 186 tanks and 418 armored vehicles in their offensive so far, but have been unable to seize appreciable territory. Putin boasts that if the Ukrainian offensive continues for a couple of more weeks, Ukraine won't have any armored vehicles left. So the Russians are spinning all this as a Russian victory.

Of course, the Russian claims aren't exactly reliable (neither are the Ukrainian claims) but it's increasingly clear that Ukrainian losses over the last ten days or so have been severe. They definitely seem to be expending men, equipment and supplies much faster than NATO can supply them. Which is to be expected in a big offensive battle, but there needs to be something tangible to show for it.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1...2694629377

[stryder]

I wouldn't believe much of what is coming out of there currently from either side, however you do have to take into consideration that pushing a heavily dug in position is usually known to require 4-5 times the force to break through, and the casuality levels are usually high. Russia has 4-5 times the manpower before even attempting that multiplier (although the number is significantly less if you actually consider the number of men willing to fight for the lies/power abuse etc)

Russia (and it's allies) would of been tracking all armour movements from the point of when they were sent to the Ukraine, and likely would of flagged them as a "Trophy hunt" (Namely they would want to undermine western aid by suggesting high losses, either factually or through the trolls.)

Russia's history is known for feints (Rus's) ever since the Mongols introduced the concept to them. So anytime a line is pushed back, there would likely always be the concern of a feint. (Dragging attackers into artillery range etc. Especially considering that Russian front lines are "Dialed In" with pre-calculations for their arty teams.)

Ukraines also bound by being the Paragon. Russia is happy to use Phosphorus shells and bombard civilian positions, Ukraine can't do that for a mixture of reasons (Fighting for their people, for the their land, for the morality and right of law).

Fighting a monster with kid gloves is not easy. (It's akin to fighting with your hands tied behind your back.)

[Zinjanthropos]

How did the Russian military suddenly become great tacticians/fighters? Is there corruption involving Ukrainian traitors/officials or did the sacrifice of untrained, unwilling, undisciplined or even unwanted soldiers buy time to properly put together a formidable army?