YazataJun 24, 2023 04:52 AM (This post was last modified: Jun 24, 2023 05:45 AM by Yazata.)
Somebody is trying to stir up panic in Moscow. Russian social media is filled with near identically worded posts with different names on them. Each says that a friend/relative works for Wagner or a government ministry, was called to an urgent meeting, returned home and said get food for two weeks, we are leaving the city. "It's started."
It looks to me like the work of some foreign covert operations service, whether Ukrainian or (perhaps) in Langley Virginia. This really looks like a SAC/PAG "black propaganda" operation that originally fed Wagner with information meant to implicate the Russian MoD with the rocket attack (which I suspect was likely Ukrainian or maybe the work of US covert operatives). Progozhin fell for it and now the SAC/PAG is trying to pour gasoline on the flames and create distrust, fear and consternation inside the Russian government and the civilian population. (Dangerous when it's a nuclear armed adversary you are messing with.)
Other voices on Russian social media are calling this a "hail mary play" by somebody in the West in response to the perceived failure of the Spring Offensive. Which I would guess might be true.
Watching this unfold is like watching a movie. It has a Hollywood feel to it.
YazataJun 24, 2023 06:16 AM (This post was last modified: Jun 24, 2023 07:19 AM by Yazata.)
Wagner Group has entered the southern Russian city of Rostov on Don, a large city of ~1 million people and site of the headquarters of the Russian army southern military district. There are photos of convoys of Wagner fighters entering the city and videos of Progozhin speaking with the commanding general of the southern military district. It looked tense, but no violence.
Progozhin says that Wagner has taken over there and is in control of Rostov on Don. There are also (exceedingly unconfirmed) reports of fighting between the Russian military and Wagner in Voronezh oblast more than 200 miles north of Rostov on Don.
Progozhin says that he doesn't want to interfere with Russia's conduct of the war in Ukraine. He says he just wants to ensure that the Russian army uses its weapons against the Ukrainians and not against his men. He's asking/demanding that the Russian Defense Minister come to Rostov on Don to meet with him.
Whoever triggered this, whether Progozhin himself, the MoD, Kyiv or the CIA - has just accomplished some world-class shit stirring.
There can't be anyone more happy right now than Zelensky.
Local traffic police in Rostov on Don trying to figure out what to do.
The Ministry of Defense is saying that Progozhin's claim of a Russian attack on his Wagner base is false and a "provocation".
The FSB (Russia's FBI, but not as corrupt) says that it has opened a case against Progozhin for armed rebellion. The FSB calls on Wagner fighters "not to make mistakes" and asks them to detain Progozhin.
General Suroviken, the designated Wagner-MoD go-between, calls upon Wagner fighters to obey the orders of the President of the Russian Federation and to resolve their issues peacefully.
The Governor of the Rostov oblast advises citizens not to enter central Rostov on Don and advises city residents to stay home if at all possible.
Latest: Most of the Wagner troops at the Headquarters of the Russian Army Southern Military District appear to have left. Only a few remain and appear to be outnumbered by Rosgvardia (paramilitary police) troops. Things appear to be calm.
Internal bickering could be a clandestine way to manipulate recruitment. Afterall most Russians that didn't want to fight in the Ukraine literally stated they didn't see it as a just war, but it didn't mean they were not willing to protect their country. If internal strife errupts into the need for internal policing, it could ignite a recruitment drive to deal with it, which in turn could entrap people that think they are there to protect their country in becoming apart of the conflict with Ukraine.
As to whether Wagner was targeted by attacks by Russia. It's highly possible, not everyone is going to appreciate literally giving freedom to prisoners that should be serving sentences. so rather than negating on freeing them, or actually freeing them, those prisoners being killed in Ukraine would remove them as a problem.
Feints, fake news and diversionary tactics….no different than any other war. If Putin is culling the mercenary herd then does he believe Russia is on track to win the war now?
Quote:The Wagner group is claiming to have taken control of all military facilities in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, and reports suggest it has taken sites in Voronezh - further north.
Rostov has played a key role since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Located close to the Ukraine border, Rostov - with a population of just one million - houses the main headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District.
This might just be the 'unexpected development' (miracle?) Ukraine has needed and been hoping for.
I’m thinking Wagner is better at persuading Russians to fight Putin than Vlad is at persuading Russians to fight Ukrainians. Ukrainians going to sit back and watch what develops? Is Russia going to have to fire on its citizens?
If Putin and close company were forced to vacate the country, who would most likely accept them, is there an Argentina to escape to for these guys?
YazataJun 24, 2023 06:20 PM (This post was last modified: Jun 24, 2023 06:29 PM by Yazata.)
This looks more and more like a coup in progress.
Putin seems to have come down pretty solidly in favor of the regular military, despite Progozhin being his (former) friend.
Indications suggest that Putin has left Moscow headed to St. Petersburg. TASS said that he would be going there and flight trackers note the departure of a Russian Air Force VIP transport of the sort Putin often flies, headed there. But the Kremlin denies the report. This kind of confusion between TASS and the Kremlin is unusual, suggesting some disorganization.
It's verified that Wagner forces passed through the Russian city of Voronezh headed north towards Moscow. Reports so far suggest they are meeting very little opposition from Russian military and paramilitary forces. But the Russian military does seem to be gathering forces south of Moscow. Military roadblocks are visible on the highways.
(My comment: The Wagnerites would seem to me to be most vulnerable driving up the roads. Their columns should be hit on the highways with antitank rockets and attack helicopters. We all saw how tough Wagner was in street fighting in Bakhmut. So don't let that happen in Moscow.)
The mayor of Moscow has told civilians to stay home and stay off the streets. Monday has been declared a holiday and nobody is supposed to go to work. A special counterterrorist operation has been proclaimed, giving the security services (police and army) special powers to conduct searches and restrict people's movements. More soldiers in full combat gear with armored vehicles are visible on the streets.
My own view is that the regular Russian military is too large and too well equipped for Wagner to defeat. They outnumber Wagner by something like 30/1. (Assuming that they don't start defecting to Wagner's side.) So Progozhin may have signed his own death warrant by doing this.
The question then is whether Wagner can be stopped without taking soldiers away from Ukraine. I expect that the Russian military easily is big enough to do two things at once, but all the upheaval and uncertainty can only work in Ukraine's favor.
If it's true, like the American generals have been saying, that most of Ukraine's field-army brigades still haven't been committed to the Offensive, now might be a good time to send them in.
C CJun 24, 2023 06:46 PM (This post was last modified: Jun 24, 2023 06:53 PM by C C.)
(Jun 24, 2023 06:20 PM)Yazata Wrote: This looks more and more like a coup in progress.
Putin seems to have come down pretty solidly in favor of the regular military, despite Progozhin being his (former) friend.
Indications suggest that Putin has left Moscow headed to St. Petersburg. TASS said that he would be going there and flight trackers note the departure of a Russian Air Force VIP transport of the sort Putin often flies, headed there. But the Kremlin denies the report. This kind of confusion between TASS and the Kremlin is unusual, suggesting some disorganization.
It's verified that Wagner forces passed through the Russian city of Voronezh headed north towards Moscow. Reports so far suggest they are meeting very little opposition from Russian military and paramilitary forces. But the Russian military does seem to be gathering forces south of Moscow. Military roadblocks are visible on the highways.
(My comment: The Wagnerites would seem to me to be most vulnerable driving up the roads. Their columns should be hit on the highways with antitank rockets and attack helicopters. We all saw how tough Wagner was in street fighting in Bakhmut. So don't let that happen in Moscow.)
The mayor of Moscow has told civilians to stay home and stay off the streets. Monday has been declared a holiday and nobody is supposed to go to work. A special counterterrorist operation has been proclaimed, giving the security services (police and army) special powers to conduct searches and restrict people's movements. More soldiers in full combat gear with armored vehicles are visible on the streets.
My own view is that the regular Russian military is too large and too well equipped for Wagner to defeat. They outnumber Wagner by something like 30/1. (Assuming that they don't start defecting to Wagner's side.) So Progozhin may have signed his own death warrant by doing this.
The question then is whether Wagner can be stopped without taking soldiers away from Ukraine. I expect that the Russian military easily is big enough to do two things at once, but all the upheaval and uncertainty can only work in Ukraine's favor.
If it's true, like the American generals have been saying, that most of Ukraine's field-army brigades still haven't been committed to the Offensive, now might be a good time to send them in.
If Putin was miraculously deposed, it might not be the best thing for the globe. His potential replacements come across as reckless, irresponsible hotheads and even more nationalist oriented. OTOH, once actually sitting on the "throne" they might tone down to being less theatrical and reality-impaired. Wouldn't expect any let-up on the annexed parts of Ukraine, though, unless somebody well outside the circle took over. Or Russia continues to bask in turmoil afterwards and requires military concerns to be focused on the motherland.
Could the CIA or whatever agency still be this masterfully competent? Hard to believe such in a century where the Western Guilt Trip requires anything echoing the "toxic" chess strategists of bygone days to be reduced to eunuchs.
YazataJun 24, 2023 06:49 PM (This post was last modified: Jun 24, 2023 07:44 PM by Yazata.)
Progozhin has just announced that he has ordered his men to return to their field bases in southern Russia and eastern Ukraine.
(Jun 24, 2023 06:46 PM)C C Wrote: If Putin was miraculously deposed, it might not be the best thing for the globe. His potential replacements come across as reckless, irresponsible hotheads and even more nationalist oriented.
Lots of powerful Russians probably have their knives out, given how badly the Ukraine intervention has gone.
But my sense is that almost all of them (and most Russian public opinion as well) agree with the reasons for the Ukraine operation. (From the Russian perspective it was anything but an unprovoked attack.) They just believe that it was totally botched and that heads need to roll. If they were in charge, it wouldn't mean an end to the war, just redoubling the effort with better strategy and leadership.
Most of the hostility seems to be directed at the Defense Ministry and at the general staff who are widely seen as incompetents. Progozhin is just the most visible indication of a view that I believe is widely shared.
The problem is that once Progozhin's Wagner uprising started to look like an actual coup, the regime's survival came to depend on precisely those same generals. So their positions have just been strengthened.
Russian state media are saying that Progozhin's decision to turn his Wagner columns around came as the result of negotiations.
Progozhin gets major personnel changes at the Ministry of Defense, including the replacement of the Defense Minister (Sergei Shoigu) and Army Chief of General Staff (Valery Gerasimov). So apparently Wagner's revolt allowed all those sharp knives to descend not on Putin, but on the widely disliked Defense Ministry, blamed for what is seen as the botched war.
Wagner is promised "assured security for the Wagner Group".
Putin gets agreement that the majority of Wagner forces will be redeployed out of Russia and Ukraine to places like the Middle East and Africa, taking them back to their mercenary roots.
And, though they weren't part of the agreement, Zelensky and Ukraine get the tough Wagner fighters (arguably Russia's best soldiers) out of the Ukraine war.
Jun 24, 2023 04:52 AM
(This post was last modified: Jun 24, 2023 05:45 AM by Yazata.)
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