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I guess the idea is for Muscovites to think the war isn’t going as smooth as they’ve been led to believe and maybe stir up some dissent. I think it will make Russians hate Ukrainians even more however.

(Jul 30, 2023 03:28 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [ -> ]I guess the idea is for Muscovites to think the war isn’t going as smooth as they’ve been led to believe and maybe stir up some dissent. I think it will make Russians hate Ukrainians even more however.

This war seems to be an ironic combination of both recolonization (partial) and a renewal of progress toward radical decolonization. Ukraine officially moved Christmas to Dec. 25 as an act of casting off Russocentric standards. (decolonization of knowledge)

Map from 'Ukraine Battle Map' that basically corroborates War_Mapper's version yesterday.

Their commentary reads "Ukrainian Forces are near Russia's 1st line of major trench fortifications in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. If Ukraine breaks through it then they would be less than 9km away from Russia's 2nd and final line of major trench fortifications until the Sea of Azov and the city of Melitopol."

While that is true, I think that it might be too optimistic from the Ukrainian perspective. Given the losses they have suffered over the last two months just advancing from the start line through mine fields and artillery kill-boxes to the first Russian line, which they haven't yet succesfully broken through, we can expect that advancing from the first to the second line might prove to be just as difficult. And even if they break through the second line, they won't be able to just breeze their way to the sea. There are additional Russian fortifications in that rear area such as Tokmak which is surrounded by trench lines.

If the Ukrainians are using NATO tactics, a mobile battle of maneuver after they break through the defense lines (if they do) might be to their advantage. Or it would be if they had control of the air and sufficient surviving forces to make it work. Advancing six or eight kilometers is an accomplishment for the Ukrainians (it's taken them two months at great cost), but this battle is far from over and anticipating Russian collapse and Ukrainian victory seems very premature.

The Ukrainians continue to attack Moscow with their drones.

This post has video of one of the Ukrainian drones flying over the Russian capital.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...9825188864

Appears to be one of the Ukrainian-designed Bober ("beaver") attack drones. Only a small warhead, but ~600 mile range. (Roughly the distance from Kyiv to Moscow.) These drones have been seen over Moscow repeatedly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bober_(drone)

Bobers



I'm not sure how accurate they are at 600 miles. Probably they can be aimed at neighborhoods but not specific buildings or offices in buildings. And they don't seem to do a whole lot of damage when they hit. So their effect is probably mostly psychological, making Muscovites feel vulnerable. (It isn't exactly WWII London during the blitz.) The flurry of drones did succeed in shutting down one of Moscow's main airports while air defenses tried to shoot the drones down. The Russians claim to have shot down two while a third was disabled by electronic countermeasures and crashed. But one seems to have gotten through today and two yesterday.

Here's some smoke from a drone hit.

The Ukrainian drone boats have been in action again.

They took part unsuccessfully in a combined air/sea drone attack on the Kerch bridge. The Russians have installed floating booms to stop any small surface craft from approaching the bridge and it worked with the drone boats. At the same time the bridge was attacked by several air drones, but all were intercepted. Most of the air drones that the Ukrainians use have warheads that are too small to wreck the bridge, but the drone boats carry more explosives. So the goal is to keep them from getting under vulnerable parts of the bridge.

The Ukrainians had better luck using their drone boats to attack individual Russian ships in the Black Sea. They struck two Russian ships and while they didn't sink either one, they put both of them out of commission. The first victim was a civilian fuel tanker which suffered a flooded engine room and a loss of power. The second victim was the Russian navy landing ship 'Olenegorsky Gornyak'. The details of the damage that it suffered are undisclosed, but it was listing badly and low in the water when tugs towed it into port. Russian photo of that below.

There's talk that the Ukrainians have improved the control systems of their drone boats and now control them through air drones that accompany them against distant targets and provide them both with a communications relay and with targeting information.



Here's the same ship before the war.

File photo of the tanker that was damaged by drone boats. It's the 'Sig' and it's been engaged for years carrying refined fuel products from Russia to the Syrian coast, to supply Russian military forces based there.

Reports suggest its hull was breached and its engine room flooded. The Russians are saying that ships like this should in the future be equipped with defensive weaponry to engage small boat attacks.

As I write this, Ukraine is under heavy cruise-missile attack. Some 15 TU-95 Bear strategic bombers are aloft and have released an unknown number of cruise missiles. Each plane is capable of carrying 8 missiles. So that's as many as 120 missiles, but probably fewer since each plane probably isn't fully loaded. Meanwhile the Russian navy is launching cruise missiles northwards out of Crimea.

This is shaping up to be the biggest Russian cruise missile attack on Ukraine in months.

One target hit by the naval missiles has been confirmed to be Starokostiantyniv air base in western Ukraine which is where the Ukrainian Su-24 tactical bombers that have been converted to carry Storm Shadows operate from.

TU-95 Bear

Unconfirmed reports are coming in that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipr river near Kherson and have established a small beachhead on the east/left bank. It remains to be seen how large this new movement is and whether it develops into a significant thrust.

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In related news, 49 old Cold War vintage Leopard-1 tanks that had been retired from Belgian Army service have been sold to a "major arms manufacturer" in an "unnamed European country". That manufacturer is believed to be Rheinmetall in Germany, which will refurbish them before they are passed on to Ukraine. This is in addition to some 200 Leopard-1's already supplied to Ukraine by the Dutch, Danes and Germans.

Early indications are that the Ukrainian attack across the Dnipr near Kherson may have just been a raid and not a big offensive thrust intended to take and hold territory.

Photo of hull damage to the Russian Navy landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak in dry dock, after being attacked by a Ukrainian drone boat.

The Ukrainians appear to have improved their drone boats. The first few attacks did little or no damage to ships being attacked. But this particular attack definitely put the target ship out of commission. More explosives? Shaped charges? Getting the boat in better position before it detonates?