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(Mar 29, 2022 10:38 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Big news!

Explosions have been reported in Belgorod, Russia. This is a small Russian city (about 350,000 people, capital of its own oblast) located in Russia near the Ukraine border. It's a town that served as a military staging point for the invasion into Ukraine.

Is this a Ukrainian attack into Russia? Is it a false flag operation to give Russia an excuse to escalate? Or was it an accident handling ammunition and explosives?

Or maybe it didn't really happen...

This might be all over the news soon. They are probably scrambling to verify it right now.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...8895707144

Edit Still no confirmation - I'm starting to doubt it.

Edit 24 hours later Still no confirmation. I'm thinking it was just internet noise

I did have a look online after you posted, I found one other video of the same explosion from a different position (on the second or higher storey of a building) The video also suggested that it was Belgorod, it suggested that 4 people were injured. Some suggested it was down to Ukrainian shelling, others said it was down to Ukrainian Missiles, while yet others suggested that it was just an accident.

There is another option, internal sabotage, however no one has seem to have said that. (If afterall it happened, Russia would keep it quite that it's own forces have had enough)

Reports from Russian media outlets a few hours later cited the "human factor" as cause -- a fire broke out at an ammunition dump.

What seems to clinch that (only for the time being) is Ukraine's own Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk chiming in with a "we didn't do it" that the explosion was a result of negligence by Russian forces: "It's another example of the typical neglect of safety protocols by the Russians when handling dangerous World War II era ammunition."

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-ukra...wn-1693286

All reliable information available at the moment, including statements from officials in Russia and Ukraine, suggest that the explosion at a weapons storage depot near Belgorod was the result of a human error, and not a Ukrainian airstrike. Conflicting versions in the original reporting of the fire may have been due to two separate incidents taking place, though this theory is yet to be confirmed by officials.

- - - - - -

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ne...o-belarus/

"While Russia has not provided any additional information about the explosion, spreading multiple explanations about an incident aligns with the Kremlin’s tactic to distract both its citizens and external observers by polluting the information space with numerous explanations that blur the line between truth and fiction."

Day 34 summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...4-summary/

There haven't been any dramatic changes around Kyiv in the last day. Each side pretty much occupies what they occupied a day ago. But now a little life is starting to return to the streets and a few stores have even opened.

The Russians have announced troop withdrawls from the Kyiv area but they haven't been observed on the ground by the Ukrainians. The next few days should tell if it's for real.

East of Kyiv withdrawls have also been announced. But again, it remains to be seen if it really happens. Positions are about what they were yesterday.

The situation is largely unchanged around Kharkiv.

East of Kharkiv, the Russians continue to try to fight their way towards the rear of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Fighting continues around where the Ukrainians are trying to block them at Izium.

In Luhansk oblast, shelling and attacks continue towards Sievierodonetsk and its neighboring towns where conditions appear to be worsening.

Attacks have been reported all along the front in Donetsk oblast, but the Ukrainians appear to have repelled most of it. The wild card there is the Russian attempt to encircle them from the west and the battle at Izium.

American military observers of all this have voiced concern that a significant fraction of the Ukrainian army's best units are in Donetsk oblast where they were confronting the separatists prior to February 24. If those units are surrounded and forced to surrender, it would be a huge loss for the Ukrainian defenders. So the Kyiv government is faced with the choice of whether to withdraw them westwards and cede the Donbas to the Russians.

In Mariupol. street fighting continues. There are indications that the Ukrainian held area is close to being cut into two pockets. French President Macron is trying to negotiate a cease fire in which to evacuate civilians, but the Russians are saying that the Ukrainians need to lay down their arms and surrender the city (what remains of it) in order for the shooting to cease.

And in the south, it appears that the Russians have finished withdrawing from their positions east of Mykolaiv. Their advance towards Kryvyi Rih seems to have stopped. But they still hold the regional capital of Kherson.

Quote:The Russians have announced troop withdrawals from the Kyiv area but they haven't been observed on the ground by the Ukrainians. The next few days should tell if it's for real.

White House thinks they are not really withdrawing but increasing deployments to the south. Wouldn't be the first time the Russians lied about this war.

Day 36 summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...6-summary/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...t-march-31

The Russians are indeed withdrawing some of their troops west of Kyiv. They have been seen crossing the Belarus border to the north. The Russians seem determined to hold their captured territory though, and the remaining troops are digging into defensive positions. The Ukrainians are hoping to use the lull to launch an offensive to retake Bucha and Hostomel (Kyiv suburbs).

East of Kyiv the Ukrainians have a small offensive underway east of Brovary and have retaken several small rural villages.

Further east, the Russians appear to be withdrawing troops from around Chernihiv and Sumy. There have been no significant Russian offensive movements in those areas in the last day.

The situation around Kharkiv is basically unchanged.

The Russians continue to try to advance through Izium and the Ukrainians continue trying to stop them.

There has been little change in Luhansk and Donetsk, though the Russians seem to be moving troops there that they withdraw from further west.

Mariupol continues to hold out. A Ukrainian helicopter made it in to try to extract the most grieviously wounded soldiers, but it was shot down trying to leave the city.

And in the south, there has been little change on the ground. The biggest news is that the Russians seem to be trying to set up a Kherson People's Republic in the area they have seized north of the Crimea.

Belgorod Russia is back in the news, for much the same reason as last time. This time it was explosions at a Russian fuel depot apprarently used to distribute fuel to invasion forces.

This time the explositions definitely appear to be an air attack since two Mi-24 attack helicopters of unknown nationality were observed launching rockets at the fuel tanks.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...1912894465

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...6894953480

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/150...8559040513

British analysts say that this strike at the fuel depot will likely further strain Russian logistics, which have already been struggling.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk-...ar-AAVLDaJ

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister says that he has no information on the attack and can't confirm or deny it

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukr...022-04-01/

But Russia is accusing Ukraine (probably correctly, unless it was some disgruntled Russian forces that did this, which I doubt.)

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/ru...4ad2fc7713

Day 37 Summary - Big news today!

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...7-summary/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...nt-april-1

The Russians are definitely withdrawing from their positions east and west of Kyiv. To the west, the Ukrainians are reoccupying a whole string of suburbs that the Russians had earlier taken. These include both Bucha (whose mayor declared the city retaken today) and Hostomel. The Ukranians now hold the Antonov airport. (Sadly poor Mriya didn't survive to welcome her liberators.) 

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/stat...7872384003

Hostomel the town - It's surprising how familiar to American eyes these Kyiv suburbs look - gas stations, strip malls... I guess Hostomel was one of Kyiv's most upscale suburbs. The Antonov aircraft plant was probably its economic mainstay, so I exepct the city was home to lots of engineers and professionals. (Until the war came... who knows what will happen now?)

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/150...9770423300

To the east of Kyiv a number of farm villages of Brovary have been retaken as Russians withdraw from that area. There are videos of locals welcoming the arriving Ukrainian soldiers with lots of hugs and happy shouts.

The situation around Kharkiv is largely unchanged. Russians in the northern outskirts, Ukrainians in the city center. But the Russians don't seem to be trying to encircle Ukraine's second city any longer.

East of Kharkiv Izium appears to have fallen to the Russians who are advancing on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk from the rear. This may end up being the battle that determines the fate of far eastern Ukraine.

Mariupol continues to hold out, but the Ukrainian held portion continues to shrink. Loss of life in this city is likely to be massive.

There haven't been any big changes in the south.

Bottom line is that the reorganization of the war that the Russians announced really seems to be happening. They seem to have given up trying to take all of Ukraine by taking the capital and replacing the government. (They originally thought they could do that in a few days.) Instead, the new plan seems to be to partition Ukraine into a Russian dominated eastern piece and a neutral non-nato but independent Ukraine remaining in the center and west. There's talk that Russia wouldn't be opposed to it joining the European Union.

Meanwhile, back in Russia.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-e...WuGwAuY3Do

Russian economy imploding because of sanctions

Russia's economy all but imploded in the 1990s. It shrank 7% a year on average for seven straight years.

The experience lingers in the minds of Russians who lived through it. Indeed, President Vladimir Putin has historically framed himself as Russia's savior, delivering a stable economy and restoring national pride.

Now, however, Putin's brutal war in Ukraine is set to wipe out 15 years of growth and send the Russian economy back to the dark days following the fall of the Soviet Union.

Sanctions by the US and its allies have slashed Russia's access to the global financial system, with the central bank cut off from just under half of its $640 billion stockpile of global currency reserves.


Western companies, from McDonald's to Coca-Cola to Shell, are "self-sanctioning" and abruptly pulling out of the country. The ruble, Russia's currency, has been on a wild ride. Inflation is skyrocketing.

Russia's economy will shrink dramatically

The Institute for International Finance think tank reckons Russian gross domestic product — the most common measure of an economy's size — will plunge by a disastrous 15% in 2022. Together with a decline of 3% in 2023, it will wipe out 15 years of growth, the IIF believes.


"The impact on Russia is going to come from pretty much every sector," Liam Peach, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, told Insider. The consultancy expects unemployment to surge from 4.1% to 8% by the end of 2022.

Peach said the move by Western governments to cut certain Russian banks out of Swift, a crucial global payments messaging system, will hit non-energy exports hard. Meanwhile, the US has banned the import of Russian oil and the UK is following suit.

Goldman Sachs thinks sanctions and self-sanctioning by western companies will cause imports to tumble 20% this year and exports to drop 10%.

Inflation is set to soar to 20%

Western governments are panicking in the face of high inflation rates of between 5% and 8%. But Russians are likely to have to cope with inflation of 20% or more by the end of the year, according to economists.

A weaker ruble will push up the price of imports, while sanctions and the withdrawal of Western companies are likely to slash the supply of goods and services.

"The supply-side shock is going to be absolutely horrible," Madina Khrustaleva, Russia analyst at the consultancy TS Lombard, told Insider.

The central bank has hiked interest rates to 20% to try to stem withdrawals from Russian banks. But punitive interest rates are set to cause a sharp drop in borrowing and investment.

Khrustaleva said the rapid withdrawal of foreign investment and companies will likely cause major changes in the economy. The government will play a much larger role and commodities production will become even more important. She said it would be like the 1990s in reverse.

"Back in the 1990s, we understood that this structural shift will lead to this increase in productivity," Khrustaleva said. "Now, you have the '90s but going in a vice-versa way. It's a tremendous loss of productivity."

Commodities and a rising ruble may ease the pain

The only ray of hope for Russia is that its brutal war in Ukraine has sharply increased global commodities prices. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and supplies Europe with a third of its natural gas.

Goldman economists think Russia should still run a large trade surplus in 2022, bringing foreign currency into the country and somewhat lessening the pain for the financial system.

Meanwhile, the ruble has risen sharply in recent days as peace talks have intensified. Investors hope an end to war could see Russia at least partially reintegrated into the world economy.

But things could also get worse. Peach, from Capital Economics, said a move by the EU to restrict energy imports would have a huge impact and could trigger "a wave of corporate defaults."


The outlook is grim, but highly uncertain. The Russian economy is, more than ever, in Putin's hands.

Day 38 summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...8-summary/

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...nt-april-2

The Russians seem to have withdrawn from all of the west side of Kyiv and retreated back north over the Belarussian border. The Ukrainians are in control of all of those suburbs that were in the news over the last month like Irpin, Hostomel and Bucha. These were Kyiv's nicest suburbs, and now they are wrecked. I believe that residents are being told to stay away for a few more days while unexploded ordinance is dealt with.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...4054579204

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1510372750665433089



The Russians were shooting civilians who had remained in Bucha. Some of them had their hands tied behind their backs. These bodies are being found all over town. There must be a story associated with that. Had the Bucha residents formed a people's resistance against the Russians? Or did Russian discipline fall apart as they suffered more and more combat deaths and they ended up going a little crazy as they were ordered out and faced the prospect of enduring all this for nothing?





Irpin



The Russians are withdrawing east of Kyiv as well. This is a more rural area. Some of the roads out there became highways of death for Russian armored columns. One of the lessons of this war might be that anti-armor weaponry has achieved a decisive advantage: 

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...4225771520

Further east, Chernihiv is no longer surrounded and the road to Kyiv is passable. The Russians remain right outside the city though. Sumy is in a similar situation, though the road out is much more circuitous.

Around Kharkiv the situation is largely unchanged.

In Luhansk, the Russians are attacking Sievierodonetsk and its nearby towns, the last significant Ukrainian-held places in Luhansk oblast. They apparently hope to push through these small cities to attack Slovyansk from the east as the advance from Izium attacks it from the west. The Ukrainians face growing danger of being encircled in that area, but they clearly don't want to withdraw their forces and cede the Donbas to the Russians. This is one place where the Russians seem to have the upper hand.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold out in some parts of Mariupol. Communications are spotty and it's difficult to know what the exact situation is there.

There was little fighting in the south near Ukrainian held Mykolaiv and Russian held Kherson. About the biggest event was Russian rocket fire directed at Kryvyi Rih but no ground movement in that direction.

Reports of cruise missiles hitting a Ukrainian oil depot in the Black Sea port of Odessa, big plumes of black smoke



More on what the Ukrainians found in Bucha

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrain..._medium=AP

Street scene in Bucha