Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

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and right on queue Russian announces the AZOV battalion as a terrorist organization

it is very obvious that a fire was started on the inside
some comments say it was a thermobaric bomb
maybe napalm some have said

you can see from the metal beds that extreme localized heat has been present and persistent
also the dead prisoners who have had their skin melted off
there is no fragmentation evidence which would be obvious and numerous if it been a missile.

Orcs enjoy torturing people 
torture is in their russian culture
torture has been hard wired into russian army recruits for decades
torture has been wide spread and common place in all russian prisons for decades.

given the amount of burn casualties there must be more who will die soon

what type of (if any), medical treatment are the prisoners getting and where are they ?

where is the camp commander
i hope they reserve a HIMARS dedicated to hitting the russian officers who were in command

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTRtokum7E8 (same as per #642)
The intercepts (presumably genuine) confirm an explosion took place, and at 1:10 mark it seems pretty clear a bomb crater is in view.
Thus speculations here earlier about a pure arson attack with incendiaries thrown in is proven false. Beyond that, responsibility and actual motives is still murky.

(Aug 3, 2022 12:28 AM)Kornee Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTRtokum7E8      (same as per #642)
The intercepts (presumably genuine) confirm an explosion took place, and at 1:10 mark it seems pretty clear a bomb crater is in view.
Thus speculations here earlier about a pure arson attack with incendiaries thrown in is proven false. Beyond that, responsibility and actual motives is still murky.

occam's razor suggests
the Russians put a incendiary bomb inside the prison
probably disguised as a food trolley

there is too much heat burn damage to the metal for it to have no fuel

the fire has been VERY HOT so accelerants must have been used
if it was a high explosive then all the beds would have been pushed into a pile and the roof iron blown off instead of collapsed with heat.

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I hate to say this, but my impression is that the Ukraine war has become a stalemate, a World War I style war of attrition. Both sides have absorbed huge losses of both men and equipment, and neither side has the ability left to move the map very much on the battlefield. So the war has become something of a meat-grinder, with thousands of men dying in hopes of moving the front lines just a few kilometers. There has been plenty of talk in the Western press about Russian losses and about Russian units that have been rendered combat-ineffective, but we never hear about Ukrainian losses and how well their units are holding up.

If the outcome of the war now depends on which side grinds down first, this new situation probably favors the Russians, since they are a bigger country with more military forces to keep moving into the battles. Right now we are hearing about HIMARS, but there are only 16 HIMARS launchers in Ukraine. Britain and Germany have supplied additional long range rocket systems but that only raises the total to 28. Meanwhile the Russians have many hundreds of artillery pieces that keep pounding Ukrainian positions day after day... while the Ukrainians have no counter-battery fire to silence the Russian guns.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/20...6625b0630d

(Translated from Ukrainian social media)





https://censor.net/ua/resonance/3358083/...myasorubka

There's talk on the internet that Ukrainian reinforcements have reached Pisky, but it might just be talk.

President Zelinskiy is reported to have said something to the effect that, "...despite US supplies of rocket artillery, #Ukraine's forces could not yet overcome #Russia's advantages in heavy guns and manpower: This is very much felt in combat, especially in the Donbas. It is just hell there. Words cannot describe it. "

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/stat...4092828677

My view remains that the United States should not introduce US troops into Ukraine. But that being said, the US should dramatically increase the amount of military supplies that it provides Ukraine. If we are the "arsenal of democracy", we need to act like it. Russia would bluster and threaten, but they won't start a nuclear war because that would mean the destruction of Russia. Today the US announced sales of large numbers of Patriot and Thaad surface-to-air missiles to Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf states. So why isn't Ukraine getting them too? That would effectively make Ukraine a no-fly zone for the Russians, without any need for US aircraft to enforce it. Ukraine's most desperate need is for large quantities of long range artillery. The problem there is that the US can only supply them rapidly by taking them from US Army stockpiles. The US, deindustrialized as it is after decades of "globalization", simply doesn't have the industrial capacity left to churn new ones out quickly. And with a potential west Pacific showdown with China looming on the horizon, the US doesn't want to weaken itself.

Which leaves Europe. Ukraine is a European country after all. Ukraine is Europe's turf, not America's. Collectively, the EU has a GDP as large as the United States. The Europeans have industrial strength that easily rivals Russia's and world-class technology. Europe should be providing the lion's share of military aid to Ukraine. Perhaps most European countries should be supplying up to half of their own long-range artillery to Ukraine. Why else do these countries have their own militaries? (I know, they are jobs programs to soak up young males who would otherwise be unemployed.) But at least on paper, they are to defend their own countries and Europe more broadly from any conventional external military threat. Which given their geography means Russia.

Well, Europe, this is it. Time for you to step up. The more Russia is ground down in Ukraine, the less threat it represents to the rest of Europe. Ukraine is fighting for all of you, so back them up! If not with your own troops, which shouldn't be out of the question, at least with vastly increased military supplies. It isn't on the United States to do that, it's on you.

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That's what Vlad seems to be counting on. Just hang in there and the walls of Jericho will eventually crumble.

Unusual video of no less than four HIMARS in daytime action (that's unusual in itself) somewhere in Ukraine. (I'm guessing somewhere in the vicinity of Kherson.) The Ukrainians only have 16 HIMARS launchers, so this is 1/4 of their total. (The British and Germans have supplied additional launchers capable of firing the same rounds, bringing the total to 28 launchers.

This shows them rapidly firing 24 M31A1 GMLRS rounds. These are both inertial and GPS guided and can fly as far as 90 km/55 miles. They hit with accuracy of a few feet. With the US supplying satellite imagery and enemy position data, the Ukrainians have no shortage of targets.

These kind of systems are exactly what Ukraine needs a lot more of, both more launchers and more missiles.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/155...0123687937

Effects of HIMARS. There are two main bridges across the huge Dnipro river in the area of the southern front, bridges (both road and rail) at Kherson and another bridge up river 35 miles of so at Nova Khakovka. The latter seems like an attractive place, but it's become the site of Russian ammunition, supply and fuel depots. And periodically the site of huge explosions.



More effects of HIMARS. After HIMARS rendered the bridge across the Dnipro river impassable at Kherson, the Russians have had to resort to ferries.

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another bridge destroyed supposedly by HIMARS
NOTE: there is a train on the bridge which you can see half submerged in the river
it looks like the bridge has collapsed with the train on it & possibly the train engine is underwater