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UPDATE

(Dec 12, 2022 02:09 AM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [ -> ]UPDATE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfZ9d3hSl_U

EXCERPT: (0:52) "Right after the explosion there was the eyewitness, the Russian soldier who was filming everything with his phone. And unfortunately I cannot publish it on YouTube, because of the policy. So please check the link for my Telegram channel, and there you may find that video."

(?) Perhaps that's this one: https://t.me/pilotblog/1763

Here's the broader collection (the above dated Dec 11 there): https://t.me/s/pilotblog

i was thinking why cant ukraine get a cheap little cesna like plane and make it remote control and fill it with 250 kilos of explosive and then fly it really low to its target
it would be ideal for hitting the kerch bridge flying it over water all the way
250 kilos of high explosive would make a dent in the bridge or a dent in a russian missile ship

The lines on the map have been pretty static for the last few weeks, perhaps because of weather conditions. But the Russians keep banging on Bakhmut. They were in the town for a short time, but the Ukrainians pushed them out again. Since then it's been World War I style trench warfare just east of town. The Ukrainian units have been resisting furiously though they have been pushed back a few kilometers in places. But they have been fighting for several months, have taken heavy casualties and are exhausted.

The big news now is that the Ukrainians have started a long anticipated troop rotation with fresh units arriving to relieve the spent and tired defenders. Many of these Ukrainian forces are coming from Kherson, suggesting that the Ukrainians don't plan any big offensive across the Dnipro in the near future.

The 24th Mechanized Brigade is relieving the 93d Mechanized Brigade in Bakhmut and Solidar. The 57th Motorized Brigade appears to be relieving the 58th Motorized Brigade in Bakhmut. Elements of the newly arrived 28th Mechanized Brigade, 36th Marine Brigade and the 46th Air Mobile Brigade have also been seen in the vicinity of Bakhmut.

Elements of the 35th Marine Brigade appear to be arriving further south near Donetsk to help shore up the deteriorating situation there. Jerome of Militaryland expresses surprise that the Marines are being used this way, since some expected them to push south through Melitopol to the shore of the Sea of Azov in hopes of cutting Crimea off by land. It's possible that this is indication that the Ukrainians don't have enough men available at the present time for that southern offensive. It might come later, in the Spring perhaps, when the weather improves.

Details here

https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-...to-donbas/

There are unconfirmed rumors that the Russians have overrun some of the defenses east of Bakhmut and the Ukrainians may or may not be evacuating their forward positions, but not the entire town. There's elation on some Wagner social media channels and they are saying the Russians are inside the town east of the city center and are pushing forward.

I have no idea if these events have anything to do with the rotations in the post above. Maybe the Russians caught the Ukrainians at a bad time, or maybe the new units are lying in wait ready to spring a trap. I don't know.

Right now these events are largely obscured by the fog of war, without any confirmation from official channels.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...2253984768

https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/16...1312032769

https://t.me/Donbas_Operativniy/19302

https://t.me/orchestra_w/3770

Map from a Wagner Telegram page:



Dec 12 map by War Mapper

There doesn't seem to be much new from Bakhmut. I'm guessing that the Ukrainians have stopped the Russian advance. Observers think Bakhmut is unlikely to fall unless the Russians can encircle it.

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/16...7244940290

The Ukrainian military is expressing their determination

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1602740101653712898

In addition to the industrial outskirts to the east, this seems to be the small portion of Bakhmut that the Russians took yesterday. (Outlined in red.) The Russians seem to have taken the industrial buildings to the upper right and the T-shaped road junction below as well.

Wagner is desperate to make gains in territory
soo desperate that allowing them to take over some area may be their undoing.
its good tactics to allow the enemy to over stretch their supply lines making them easy target for encirclement or booby traps
pre loaded artillery co-ordinates

supposedly 200 dead in the Wagner HQ 2 days ago which is fantastic news

more dead Orcs = less dead Ukrainian civilians

The Kyiv Independent is reporting that the Ukrainian Prime Minister is saying that Ukraine's GDP this year might be only half of what it was last year, due to disruptions to the economy by the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/stat...2357274627

Very informative story from the Kyiv Independent about the battle for Bakhmut. Some are expressing surprise that the Ukrainian censors let them publish this.

Whole story here --

https://kyivindependent.com/national/und...on-bakhmut

Excerpt from the story --



Photos from the Kyiv Independent

In a Bakhmut basement. (I wonder who the older man is in what appears to be a very good painting.)



An Army field hospital

Wagner Mi Helicopter shot down and bursts into flames looks like no one could have survived
pilot put it down too late

Today's Bakhmut map from War Mapper

This doesn't show the Russians in the first two blocks of the easternmost residential area. They may have been pushed out or maybe War Mapper couldn't get confirmation satisfactory to him. Maybe the Russians were never there. (Fog of war.)

They do seem to have advanced some in the industrial section along what looks like the main east-west road. Today they seem to battling for what's labeled the "champaigne factory".

On this map, green bridges are intact, red bridges are blown up.

The normal way to take a town like this would be to flank around it. But the open fields have been seas of mud and impassable to vehicles for the last few weeks. So fighting is concentrated on the roads and railway lines. But winter is here and as the fields freeze, vehicles can once again drive across them. So we may see the Russians trying to go around Bakhmut, in hopes of trapping its defenders.