Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Rybar's latest version. (This is a Russian source, but their maps are as reliable as anyone else's.) Shows the Russians have taken part of the AZOM metal plant north of downtown Bakhmut and still pushing up from the south. Also shows the new movement northwest along the Sloviansk road. I don't expect this one to make much headway - it might be a diversion to make the Ukrainians have to decide where to send their reinforcements.

Talk is that civilians are being evacuated from Chasiv Yar, while soldiers from Ukraine's strategic reserve are flowing in.



Photo from Wagner showing their fighters posing inside the Vostokmash building in the AZOM plant. This is the same building where Ukrainian president Zelensky awarded medals to Bakhmut defenders in December.



Photo of President Zelensky in the same building in December

Map by Brady Africk, based on satellite imagery, showing where the Russians have been building fortifications.

Interesting to see that they have been building fortifications all along the pre-war Russia/Ukraine border. They have also fortified the Kharkiv/Luhansk front east of the Oskil.

Everyone expects the Ukrainian spring offensive to be south from Zaporizhzhia city to Melitopol and the sea of Azov coast. And the Russians seem to agree and have heavily fortified that area with what appears to be several lines of forts.

As for the Crimea, there seem to be fortifications in depth from the Dnipro river to Crimea.

The Ukrainians have already demonstrated the value of fortifications on the Donetsk front, where they spent the 2014-2022 years building reinforced concrete shelters deep underground that proved resistant to even the heaviest Russian shelling. And the Russians have been unable to push past them during the last year. So the Russians appear to have taken a page from the Ukrainian book and are building shelters of their own that might reduce the sometimes devastating impact of HIMARS and similar artillery on their forces when the expected offensive begins.

Slovakia (the eastern half of the former Czechoslovakia) has announced the transfer of 13 Mig-29 jets from their air force to Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force already flies this aircraft type (but has suffered many combat losses to their inventory) and their pilots and mechanics are already familiar with them.

The big news today isn't from Bakhmut, but from a similar sized small city further south called Avdiivka. This place is essentially a suburb of the large city of Donetsk, the largest city seized by pro-Russian militants in 2014 and the capital of the so-called 'Donetsk People's Republic' until its recent annexation by Russia. (It's now the capital of Russia's Donetsk oblast.) Donetsk metro population ~1.5 million.

But though the pro-Russian side took over Donetsk city, the Ukrainians hung on to Avdiivka and several other important points on Donetsk's outskirts, including most of the airport. Since 2014, the Ukrainians have used Avdiivka to regularly shell Donetsk. (And the pro-Russians fired the other way too. Constant cease-fire violations.)

Since February 2022, the Russians have managed to retake the airport, and have moved into position to encircle Avdiivka. Like Bakhmut, the main road in and out of Avdiivka has been cut or is in danger of being cut. There's even speculation that Avdiivka might fall before Bakhmut.

Reporter from the Kyiv Independent says city is "near surrounded", the Ukrainian army is still holding but is taking what the reporter terms "huge losses".

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...0653892609

Map below is by Russian source Rybar who have very good Russian sources.



Map below is from the pro-Ukrainian American think-tank Institute for the Study of War who have good sources in US intelligence.

Both maps essentially show the same thing.

Russian reports coming in that three of the Ukrainian drone-boats entered Sevastopol harbor this morning, local time. The Russians say that all three were detected and destroyed. They aren't reporting any damage to ships, and the harbor is reopening to marine traffic.

At the same time, Russian air defenses were active over Sevastopol, suggesting air drones were participating in the attack.

There's video of something burning in the ocean at the entrance of the harbor, said to be one of the intercepted drone-boats.

In other news, the Japanese Prime Minister is visiting Kyiv and has pledged $500 million in aid: $30 million in non-lethal military aid, and $470 million in economic assistance.

Video released by Slovakia showing Ukrainian Air Force pilots taking off from Slovakia in four of the Mig-29's Slovakia is giving Ukraine, to ferry them back home to Ukraine.

(Watch with the sound on, to hear the catchy Slovak music.)

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/16...4242837504

Wagner claims to have taken the AZOM non-ferrous metals plant in Bakhmut. Ukraine denies it, but Wagner has produced video showing their fighters walking around the plant freely that was indeed geolocated to the plant, seeminly without fear of getting shot by defenders. Which does suggest that they have a pretty good grip on it.

Wagner is also advancing through some residential neighborhoods on the south side of Bakhmut. They told a Russian journalist embedded with them that they were trying to reach the administrative building downtown. They didn't seem to be meeting much resistance where they were, but given the slowness of their advance, the Ukrainians must be doing a pretty good job of denying them their prize.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...7064596480

Map by War_Mapper. This is a good source that seems to base their assessments largely on official Ukrainian briefings, unless other claims can be independently verified. So it does tend to tilt towards Kyiv's version of things. Still, I consider it reliable.

If so much Russian military is located in one place then wouldn’t there be a few soft spots along Ukraine/Russian border. You’d think Ukes would exploit that to take some pressure away from battleground. Must be a reason why they don’t. Could it be losing allied support or that Russia would turn to something really nasty like dirty bombs, chemical or bio weapons?

Scott Ritter challenges Lloyd Austin to a debate anytime anywhere regarding the real military situation in Ukraine. Calls him an outright liar:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMQfGeU-txY
Some unintended levity is injected via occasional auto voice to text bloopers. The topic though is far from hilarious.