Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Kremlin.ru is still down. I think that we know that Ukraine has military hackers, as does Russia, the US and many other countries. So if Russian government websites are down, it's hard to know who/what is responsible.

I doubt if it's the Russians doing it to themselves. They are visibly frustrated by all the pro-Ukraine opinion on the internet and presumably would want to be putting out their own message if they could.

Our latest member could be part of Russia putting out their own message. He seems awfully eager to morally equate Russia's actions with those of the West.

Saw a vid where Russian tank crew was stopped and queried on road, out of gas. Seriously? Tank crew seemed happy about it, keeping them away from the action perhaps.

Canadian sanction: Russian vodka removed from store shelves.

Day 3 Situation Report

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...3-summary/

As third day of war winds down in Ukraine, there has been little change in the situation on the ground. There appear to have been no new attempts to penetrate Kyiv like last night. Biggest event in the Kyiv area was a massive fire at a Ukranian fuel storage depot a few miles west of the city, apparently caused by Russian missiles. Fuel and food supplies in the city of 2 million are starting to become a worry.

The one area where Russians made gains today is northeast of Crimea. A Russian column from out of Crimea is traveling along the highway there, bypassing the Ukrainian strongpoint at Berchansk and has almost traversed the whole north shore of the Sea of Azov almost to the Separatist area. The last major Ukrainian position on that stretch is heavily fortified Mariupol. But most of the defensive positions there face the Separatists to the east and this new Russian column is approaching from the opposite site, the west. To the northwest of Crimea, the Ukrainians have reinforced their garrison in Kherson which is still holding out and a second attack on Mykolaiv has been repelled, the second Russian failure there in as many days. (More photos of blown up armored vehicles.)

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...0781456397

An interesting development is that Russian infiltrators might have been living in Kyiv for months, renting apartments there. They have recently been activated and one of their tasks has been to spray-paint direction markings on buildings to aid Russian soldiers who have never been there and don't know their way around. The Ukranian civilian volunteers have been painting out the markings.

In a similar vein, highway road signs are being spontaneously repainted "Welcome to Hell" all over Ukraine. Locals know their way around, Russians don't.

And there's this:

https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/stat...3293266944

Elon has already responded. More satellite coverage heading to Ukraine now.

(Feb 27, 2022 05:41 AM)Syne Wrote: [ -> ]Elon has already responded. More satellite coverage heading to Ukraine now.

Just a recap before the conflict started Russia did a weapons test to take out satellites using missiles which put the ISS in jeopardy. They obviously had plans to blind anyone intending on surveilling.

I'd actually query as to if Russian intelligence had actually been viewing communications (Hacked email servers etc?) from the Ukraine and that something said in confidence was likely cherrypicked and reported to Putin by some Russian nationalist extremists and that is the real reason for his need to push in there.

I'd be concerned that their strategy now is just a grab for some parcel of land (Or split the country in two like with Korea or Vietnam) to hold when there is a ceasefire to claim some form of victory rather than trying to storm the whole country, with the intention of continuing to chip away at the country in the future.

A recent big event was Russian airborne troops pushing out from the Antonov airport in Hostomel where they were reinforcing by air, towards Kyiv.

To get there, they passed through a fairly large exurban town not far (~10 mi) outside Kyiv called Bucha.

Video of their armored column entering Bucha.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497838808104116227

And video of what happened to it

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...1172310017

It's unclear who occupies Bucha now or whether the soldiers in the video are Russian or Ukrainian, they wear very similar uniforms. But one soldier had an armband and the Ukrainian soldiers often seem to sport yellow armbands. (All Slavs look alike to me.)

But the video of the destroyed column suggests at least 100 Russian KIA in this one short stretch of road.

It's increasingly apparent (to me at least) that anti-armor weapons have achieved a rather decisive advantage over armored vehicles. While armored vehicles are good protection against small arms, they appear to be death traps against more specialized weaponry. And the Russian generals seem to have conceived of their attack on Ukraine as a World War II style armored attack, hoping that it would be a quick blitzkrieg. (Generals always seem to be fighting yesterday's war.) Well, I don't think that it's working out quite like they anticipated it would.

Russia might be able to crush Ukraine simply through strength of numbers, but that kind of victory will only come at a tremendous cost in lives. Thousands of young Russian conscripts will be coming home in coffins and Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity is going to take a huge hit. That will tempt political rivals to rise and challenge him. That probably explains the obvious pressure that Putin appears to be under in his latest appearances.

(Feb 27, 2022 08:05 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ][...] Russia might be able to crush Ukraine simply through strength of numbers, but that kind of victory will only come at a tremendous cost in lives. Thousands of young Russian conscripts will be coming home in coffins and Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity is going to take a huge hit. That will tempt political rivals to rise and challenge him. That probably explains the obvious pressure that Putin appears to be under in his latest appearances.

If nothing else, Russian jets (or guided missiles) could start bombing the cities to rubble like they did in the Syrian intervention a few years back (Aleppo, etc).

Military had no qualms about eradicating Middle Eastern civilians by the ####load, but perhaps they could be more timid about exploding fellow Slav innocents to bits. Depends upon how secure or insecure Putin is about his masculinity image.

I'm more confident than I was about the Ukrainian capacity for guerrilla warfare after the cities have fallen. Thanks to incohesive gun laws, average citizens may have illicitly owned more guns in the past than declared by stats. Which is to say, maybe they're not as propaganda-crippled and psychologically skittish about handling guns as much of the European population. Contemporary Ukrainians aren't as accustomed as Afghans to a rough life without conveniences, though.

And sadly, the world's largest conventional transport aircraft (by some measures like volume and length) the Antonov An-225 Mriya ('Dream') built in the 1980's during the late Soviet Union is confirmed destroyed in fighting at the Antonov airport at Hostomel. It was supposed to be the Soviet Union's answer to America's C-5 Galaxy, but the collapse of the Soviet Union aborted that and only one was ever built.

Antonov is/was perhaps Ukraine's largest industrial company, certainly the best known, a major world manufacturer of cargo aircraft. So the fate of Antonov is of interest to the entire world aviation community.

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/...0008547332

Here's the Day 4 Situation Report

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...4-summary/

Around Kyiv, the Russian thrust into Bucha was repulsed and the Ukrainians are in control of the town. the survivors of the Russians that tried to move through it towards Kyiv are back at the Antonov airport at Hostomel. But another Russian column has left the airport, penetrated south instead of towards the capital, and has cut the highway leading from Kyiv to the west. Ukrainian forces are responding and engaging these Russians as we speak.

The Russians have been trying to advance on Kyiv out of Belarus both east and west of the Dnepr river. To the west they came through the Chernobyl radiological zone and advanced to near Kyiv where they took the Antonov airport after which the Ukrainians have stopped them in a number of battles. On the east of the river, the Kyiv-Belarus road passes through the provincial capital of Chernihiv. This city was attacked on day 1 and has held out for 4 days now. A real Ukrainian Hero-city. They are under severe pressure but won't let the Russians through.

In the south, Russians heading west from out of Crimea still haven't taken Kherson and continue to try to take the shipyard city of Mykolaiv, so far without success. Russians are spreading north up through the rural farmlands areas up to the Dnepr which is widened into a series of reservoirs that create kind of a moat behind which are the Ukrainian defenses. And to the southeast, the Russians from Crimea have taken almost the entire north shore of the Sea of Azov and have almost joined up with the Separatist Areas. Berchansk has surrendered.

In the northeast, the Russians have come across the border at several locations. They are still trying to take the provincial capital of Sumi, which has fought heroically but according to some reports (contradicted by others) has been surrounded. Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, has been penetrated by Russian forces which made it to the city center, but have been forced out to the outskirts again with heavy losses. Considerable urban street-fighting in Kharkiv. Lots of destroyed/abandoned Russian vehicles. But the Russians have been having more success moving through the rural farm areas east and west of Kharkiv where their area of control is growing.

The US is believed to be sharing satellite imagery with the Ukrainians. Defensive weaponry such as additional anti-tank rockets are being sent in, though distributing supplies to the Ukrainian troops across the country will be a big challenge without control of the air and with roads and rail dangerous. But Russia is getting visibly frustrated by their slow and costly progress and Putin is making dark noises about putting nuclear forces on alert in hopes of intimidating the West to keep their hands off.

Over the last 4 days, more than 1/3 million Ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children, have crossed the border into Poland. Many more will follow, I'm sure. The roads in western Ukraine are clogged with cars headed west, many abandoned on the shoulder of the road when they run out of gas. People are walking, carrying children and all of their remaining possessions, in bitter February cold. Europe hasn't seen scenes like this since the 1940's.