Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Again, fuck off you evil piece of shit worthless excuse for a theist, much less a human being.

Ignoring insane hypocritical provocations that are unchecked by hierarchy here.....
While Jeffrey Sach's analysis of the true origins of the Ukraine conflict in terms of US/NATO long term hegemonic strategy is quite good, there is more to it (like - who runs the US/NATO/Ukraine):
https://www.unz.com/estriker/onward-chri...n-ukraine/

It appears that the Ukrainians did send reinfotcements into Avdiivka. After the Russians pushed quickly down several streets in southern Avdiivka after defeating a Ukrainian strongpoint a few days ago, the Ukrainians replied strongly with tanks, which the Russians admit are being used very skillfully.

The Russians have succeeded in preventing this Ukrainian counter attack from pushing them backwards, but the Ukrainian counter attack did succeed in stopping the Russians from advancing any farther. So there's been little change in either side's positions for the last week or so.

The Ukrainian position in Avdiivka has continued to deteriorate over the last couple of weeks.

In south Avdiivka the Ukrainians have continued to halt Russian advance past the Tsarska ohota fortification they captured several weeks ago. But reports just coming in suggest that the Russians have captured or are in the process of capturing fortifications at a former air defense facility to the west of Tsarska ohota. This particular facility anchors a string of fortifications that the Russians have so far failed to breach, and that whole stretch of front is now in jeopardy. There's talk the Ukrainians are pulling their forces out of these positions and geolocated photos show Russians in some of them.

To the east of Tsarska ohota, the Russians may or may not have captured a water treatment plant that the Ukrainians have been using as a strongpoint. The Russians claim they have, but there's no verification as yet.

The big news is in north Avdiivka. The city is kind of a strip, long and narrow. The industrial zone is at the north end and the downtown and residential areas are to the south. The Russians have punched straight across town from east to west, separating the industrial district from the residential. The American spooks confirm this. And it appears that the Russians have cut the main road out of south Avdiivka which runs north across the area the Russians seized. There are some 1,500 to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers in what threatens to become a surrounded pocket. As of now they can still escape to the northwest, but that's mostly farms.

We are starting to hear that maybe Ukraine should evacuate its forces from Avdiivka. And large amounts of copium are being consumed, since the narrative is now that Avdiivka isn't all that important and the Russians gain nothing but dead soldiers taking it. Except that it's the last of the large Russian annexed city of Donetsk's inner suburbs still occupied by the Ukrainians and capturing Avdiivka would push enemy forces back away from the large city, the largest city in the four oblasts the Russians annexed. That's why Avdiivka is so important to the Russians and of so much emotional value to Zelensky and his people.

Rybar's (a generally credible independent Russian source) version:



The Institute for the Study of War's (an American source with close ties to the CIA and the Pentagon) version:

Latest independent Ukrainian reports suggest that the developing mile-wide pocket around and behind the air defense facility (crosshatched area in the circle below) has totally collapsed. Ukrainian sources are saying that some Ukrainian forces got out, others were captured.

Ukrainian forces are rushing to prepare defenses in the fields to the west of Avdiivka in hopes of preserving a supply/evacuation route in and out of the increasingly threatened town.

And that's it...

The Armed Forces of Ukraine Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyy announced the decision of the AFU command to withdraw from Avdiivka in order to save the lives of Ukrainian troops.

"Based on the operational situation around Avdiyivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines."

https://twitter.com/CinC_AFU/status/1758642687417417845

Most Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka have retreated from the city in the last few hours or are pulling out under fire as we speak but there are still isolated Ukrainian units who appear to be setting up booby traps. Some of the last remaining Ukrainians might be out of communication with their commanders and are unaware of the withdrawl order.

Intuitively it feels ominous for Ukraine. Appears there are Russians either willing or forced to fight. Narrative seems to be changing over at YouTube and there more vids showing Russian victories, seems to me at least. Same goes for Hamas vs IDF.

Well, on February 22, 2024 the Ukraine war has entered into its third year.

A year ago, in February 2023, the mood was very different. The Ukrainians had fought off the original Russian attempt to take Kyiv in a blitzkrieg. Then the Ukrainians routed the Russians east of Kharkiv. The Russians withdrew from Kherson to take up more defensible positions. So Ukraine was on a roll and felt kind of invincible. They were receiving large amounts of advanced Western weaponry and their grand spring offensive was widely anticipated. Everyone seemed to assume that Ukraine's NATO trained and equipped forces would just slice through the Russians and it would be another rout.

Now a year later the mood is far more somber. The Spring offensive failed miserably, only advancing maybe 20 km here and there at the cost of thousands of men and hundreds of armored vehicles. The Russians' Surovikin Line held. Ukrainian reserves were depleted and their Western suppliers proved unable to supply arms and ammunition at the rate the Ukrainians were expending them. Then the Israel war intervened and Ukraine was no longer the center of their patrons' attention. The Russians even notched a few small victories in Bakhmut, Marinka and Avdiivka. All in all, the front line has been pretty static throughout 2023, with little change on the battle map.

So it seems that the Ukrainians have gone over from offense to defense. They appear to be constructing their own version of the Surovikin Line. Ukraine is building trenches, tank-traps, minefields and bunkers as fast as they can, largely in Donetsk oblast facing the Russians.

Here's a map by Clement Molin showing roughly where the new Ukrainian fortifications are.

(Feb 25, 2024 10:45 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ][...] So it seems that the Ukrainians have gone over from offense to defense. They appear to be constructing their own version of the Surovikin Line. Ukraine is building trenches, tank-traps, minefields and bunkers as fast as they can, largely in Donetsk oblast facing the Russians. [...]

About time. Problem is, now nobody may want to give them weapons for defense, due to fear that they will switch to offensive mode again and squander them as before. All fury and no good sense makes Uke a lonely orphan.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz has revealed that the British military has personnel inside Ukraine assisting the Ukrainians in operating British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Scholtz is being widely condemned for violating operational secrecy in revealing this. It's long been rumored that British forces are in Ukraine in small numbers as advisors, but this is the first authoritative confirmation. (I've heard that the British are also helping Ukraine with their drone-boats but have seen no verification of that.)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...af-scholz/