Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Day 6 Situation Report

There haven't been any dramatic changes since yeterday. The biggest has been a noticeable Russian frustration with their slow progress and the dead and wounded they have been taking, leading to a new gloves-off violence. They have been firing lots of artillery and rockets into Kharkiv, including residential areas. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second biggest city and this morning saw a devastating missile strike on the provincial government building on the main square, with considerable loss of life. A huge almost tactical nuclear sized fuel-air explosive bomb was used against an unspecified military installation in Chuhuiv outside Kharkiv. I doubt is many of the Ukrainians at that facility survived. The Russian attitude might be a reaction to the destruction of all of those armored columns and seems to be - You are killing us, so we will kill as many of you as we can.

All around the country there have been renewed cruise missile attacks on Ukranian held cities.

And that "40 mile convoy" heading for Kyiv didn't move at all today. The reason is unknown but American military officers suggest that the whole thing looks botched to them. The Russian attack has been plagued by bad logistics from day one, with vehicles running out of fuel and being abandoned, soldiers not being fed and all sort of problems probably including ammunition shortages.

It's still unclear if the Russian plan is to enter Kyiv or to surround it and starve it out.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...6-summary/

I think John Mearsheimer is right in saying that we’re at fault due to the EU and NATO expansion, and the promotion of democracy. His talk was in 2015, and at this time, he thought that Putin was too smart to invade Ukraine. He makes a good point about our sanctions. When security interests are at stake, countries will suffer enormously before they throw their hands up. Russia is not going to back down and we’ve had plenty of warnings.

He said that they made it clear from the mid-1990’s that they were adamantly opposed to NATO’s expansion, but they were too weak at the time to do anything about it. A declaration was made during the Bucharest Summit welcoming Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. "We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO." Russia said that this was a huge mistake that will have serious consequences. The war between Georgia and Russia in 2008 was a consequence of this because Georgia thought that we were sending them a clear signal that they could get uppity with Russia, and that we would back them up, but that’s not what happened. The Russians clobbered them.

In 2014 Yanukovych started negotiations with the EU to form an association. At this point, the Russians were willing to do a deal involving the EU, IMF, Russia, and Ukraine, but the idea of Ukraine doing a deal exclusively and the Russians being left out in the cold is not something that Putin is willing to accept. Putin said that he spoke to Bill Clinton in 2000 and asked him, "How would America feel about Russia joining NATO?" He said Clinton’s reaction was very restrained. Putin spoke about his biggest concerns and worries about the fundamental threats which irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely and unceremoniously from year to year.

Is there anything that Putin said that's not true?



Like Mr. Mearsheimer said, we’re playing a losing hand because Ukraine is a vital strategic interest to Russia, but not to us. We’re risking a nuclear war over a piece of real estate that is not a vital interest to the U.S. We’ve encouraged the Ukrainians to play hardball with Russia and our American exceptionalism has gotten us into another tight spot. We’ll either be drawn into a World War lll or we'll keep Ukraine from entering NATO and their country will be destroyed. My best guess is that we’ll do the latter. If we don’t abandon NATO's expansion and come up with an economic rescue plan that includes Ukraine and Russia, we’re toast.

Well put SS. Putin mourned the breakup of the USSR, but NOT the effective dissolution of communism. The 'West' has a far slicker, far more polished pr machine than the kludgy equivalent of their enemies.
And that battle-for-hearts-and-minds advantage counts for much. Although modern Russia has little in common politically with its USSR era incarnation, that slick 'Western' pr machine has successfully managed to convince various former USSR client states they face a demon wanting to return them to oppressive communist rule in effect. Putin is hamstrung by the long memories heritage still running strong in the minds of many Poles, Estonians, Ukrainians etc. etc.

PS - Not pretending Putin is a saint. The odds are good he really has arranged for 'retirement' of various political foes. But like with Hungary's Orban, he with some justification realizes they are targeted by clever operatives for integration into a world superstate to be micromanaged by an unelected elite. In other words, they prefer that Hungarians decide Hungary's future, and similarly for Russia. This apprehension - wariness of and determination to crush Soros managed 'spontaneous protests', breeds a certain level of unavoidable paranoia. The recurring cycle of freedom loving heroes turning into the oppressors they overthrew.

Excellent post by SS. Hm. Looks like 'we' should be discouraging Ukranians from fighting a lost cause - not what we're doing right now.

(Mar 2, 2022 12:42 PM)confused2 Wrote: [ -> ]Excellent post by SS. Hm. Looks like 'we' should be discouraging Ukranians from fighting a lost cause - not what we're doing right now.

But still not as much folly and [relished] spectator cruelty as imploring an unarmed population (that's also often conditioned with an attitude that even looking at or touching a gun is akin to giving the Devil a handjob) to rebelliously free themselves from an already existing yoke that they're oppressed under.

Vague impressions of American pundits, soapbox agitators, statesmen, politicians, and legislators urging such in the past -- over the course of various different strife situations, seem to flicker to mind. But it's surely just false memories, a conclusion all the more buttressed by the blurry identities of these supposed individuals (unclear faces, voices, and names). 

(Mar 2, 2022 08:22 AM)Secular Sanity Wrote: [ -> ][...] Like Mr. Mearsheimer said, we’re playing a losing hand because Ukraine is a vital strategic interest to Russia, but not to us. We’re risking a nuclear war over a piece of real estate that is not a vital interest to the U.S. We’ve encouraged the Ukrainians to play hardball with Russia and our American exceptionalism has gotten us into another tight spot. We’ll either be drawn into a World War lll or we'll keep Ukraine from entering NATO and their country will be destroyed. My best guess is that we’ll do the latter. If we don’t abandon NATO's expansion and come up with an economic rescue plan that includes Ukraine and Russia, we’re toast.

Retaining some scant items from the background murmuring over the years -- like not even expressing token or superficial mock sympathy for Putin's concerns about how expat or dislocated Russians (via Soviet collapse) in Ukraine were being treated, I agree that the indifferent West has done its part in contributing to this scenario. (In contrast to the old pragmatic days, when the US arguably accommodated sphincter tyrants more often, as long as there was quid pro quo, before the hauteur of both [crypto] cultural Marxism and neoconservative idealism set in.)

But considering the times that Putin dolefully waxed in early interviews about how the dissolution lazily allowed Ukraine to go its own way, that seemed to revolve around cultural ties wistfulness, erosion of Russian importance as a player, and other what-not -- rather than just later heightened security concerns... He's got to be a little privately overjoyed that we've accommodated him with both a stimulus for action and fodder for constructing an apologist template, for instituting his wish fulfillment.

One wayward thing to consider. What if Putin has already got plans for a world reset, where he has for years been building a bunker, tricking it out with supplies and deciding who's on his guest list. With the actually intension to literally burn the world. We assume that M.A.D (Mutually Assured Destruction) was a way to stop nuclear powers throwing them round everytime they have a tandrum, but what if the madman actually plans to wipe the (world) slate clean and start afresh. (Less people, less problems. more meglomanic control etc.)

Who are we kidding? We’re just as bad, if not worse. Like Professor Mearsheimer said, the Monroe Doctrine is central to U.S. foreign policy. It held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the U.S. Just imagine them setting up shop in Canada, South America or even Mexico. We shouldn’t be surprised at all by his actions, but I bet you, if you asked any college students about the crisis, none of them would have a clue. We are what he said we are, and our leaders need to pull their heads out of their ass and come together on this, correct our mistakes, and quickly, or the only division between the left and right will be in our footsteps…your left your left your left right left.

(Mar 2, 2022 08:05 PM)stryder Wrote: [ -> ]One wayward thing to consider.  What if Putin has already got plans for a world reset, where he has for years been building a bunker, tricking it out with supplies and deciding who's on his guest list.  With the actually intension to literally burn the world.  We assume that M.A.D (Mutually Assured Destruction) was a way to stop nuclear powers throwing them round everytime they have a tandrum, but what if the madman actually plans to wipe the (world) slate clean and start afresh.  (Less people, less problems. more meglomanic control etc.)

It's "fun slash interesting" to ponder -- or maybe "recreational fear" is a better way to frame it, like choosing to watch a horror movie.

Back in the Cold War days, this would be another Prague Spring, Hungarian revolt of '56, and so-forth that the Soviet military would rush forces in and quell.

In reaction, lots of righteous preaching from the West for show, and the fallout shelter markets enjoying a good boom in sales. But most citizens in that retro world would still be sipping cocktails slash smoking their dope (60s) or listening to Elvis and Frank (50s) as if no big deal. (Cuban missile crisis a possible exception.)

Granted, Ukraine isn't already annexed or an Iron Curtain satellite in this case. Yet over 3 decades of being without various Cold War routines and expectations has spawned a younger and older amnesiac population that deems this as radically novel, unsettling, and apocalyptic.

OTOH, it is kind of invigorating to have an excuse for tasting what the vintage folks did -- to get into that Chicken Little groove, of mimicking the flailing beat on the dance floor, that the sky is falling. "Hey, look -- that crow's feet cougar you brought in here isn't overly hoity-toity for these moves after all!"

Dialing back time a bit, in 2019 Italian police caught a Far-right group with a air-to-air missile and a bunch of Nazi memorabilia. It turned out they have been fighting in the Eastern Donbass region of the Ukraine. It seems that while neo-Nazi's did exist in the Ukraine, they were actually not Ukrainian and were actually fighting side by side with Pro-Russian seperatists.

(It's likely Russian FSB again used far rights groups as pawns in a long game. That's the worrying concern about countries allowing their security services to commit illegal operations setting up such groups as pawns. )
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48987723