(Sep 1, 2019 12:49 AM)Leigha Wrote: I’m not one of them. But it could be all the thousands of newbies moving to Florida who think a tropical storm is reason to panic.
Ah, that makes more sense. Newer transplants haven't been seasoned with years of warnings that usually don't amount to anything. It's like tornado warnings in tornado alley. Not that I was in Florida long, five years all told, but I was raised in an area with its own over-hyped catastrophic weather. And whether it's hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, earthquakes, etc., I'm guessing getting use to one is fairly transferable. I wonder if Californians are as desensitized to earthquakes, or if they're just perpetually panicky.
LeighaSep 1, 2019 02:59 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 1, 2019 03:04 AM by Leigha.)
(Sep 1, 2019 02:47 AM)Syne Wrote:
(Sep 1, 2019 12:49 AM)Leigha Wrote: I’m not one of them. But it could be all the thousands of newbies moving to Florida who think a tropical storm is reason to panic.
Ah, that makes more sense. Newer transplants haven't been seasoned with years of warnings that usually don't amount to anything. It's like tornado warnings in tornado alley. Not that I was in Florida long, five years all told, but I was raised in an area with its own over-hyped catastrophic weather. And whether it's hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, earthquakes, etc., I'm guessing getting use to one is fairly transferable. I wonder if Californians are as desensitized to earthquakes, or if they're just perpetually panicky.
I’ve lived here for about eight years and went through Irma which was a much wider spread storm so panic made sense. It came on the heels of Harvey so everyone was in panic-mode but I think Dorian was over hyped and exaggerated when they simply didn’t know enough. “They,” being the weather stations. It’s now going to hit NC? Lol Oookay.
Someone, please burn the phrase “cone of uncertainty.”
YazataSep 1, 2019 04:09 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 1, 2019 05:15 PM by Yazata.)
I'm worried about the northern Bahamas. This thing was just upgraded to category 5, and it's moving very slowly. Current projections put it atop Abaco and Grand Bahama from today through tomorrow. 150 mph winds for two days will devastate those islands and loss of life and structures could be heavy. The Bahamas isn't going to be the same place when this is over.
For the last couple of days the Bahamas government has been advising people on the northern islands to evacuate. But these are islands and transport isn't that easy to arrange at short notice, when everyone else wants it too. So I expect that tens of thousands are still there. Hunkered down in not very strong structures. My impression is that there isn't much panic.
Here's the Bahamas Broadcasting Company's twitter page. ("Only the Sun covers the Bahamas better!") They have people reporting from Abaco but it's unclear how long communications will hold up. It looks like storm surge head of the storm is already inundating the islands. Hurricane force winds are projected to start around now.
(Sep 1, 2019 02:59 AM)Leigha Wrote: I’ve lived here for about eight years and went through Irma which was a much wider spread storm so panic made sense. It came on the heels of Harvey so everyone was in panic-mode but I think Dorian was over hyped and exaggerated when they simply didn’t know enough. “They,” being the weather stations. It’s now going to hit NC? Lol Oookay.
That might be reasonable over on the west side of Florida. It no longer looks like it is going to cross over Florida, right over your heads, and then out into the Gulf.
But the east side has reason for concern. Even if this thing makes a hard right turn after wrecking the Bahamas, and stays well off-shore from the US perspective as it moves north, it's likely to hit most of eastern Florida with storm surge and tropical storm force winds. There will be localized flooding, power outages and so on. (I'm personally concerned that SpaceX's Florida Starship prototype will be destroyed.)
Quote:Someone, please burn the phrase “cone of uncertainty.”
But that's just it. The cone indicates where the center of the storm has maybe a 2/3'ds probability of ending up. Leaving maybe one chance in three that it won't stay within the cone at all. There's lots of variation between different models. And there's lots of variation in a single model as initial conditions are varied. So projecting future storm tracks is like herding cats. The paths all go the same way for the first day or two, then start diverging in different directions.
I've been reading about global warming contributing to the increasing intensity and frequency of these hurricanes. Or are these just typical weather cycles that the earth goes through?
YazataSep 1, 2019 06:08 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 1, 2019 07:44 PM by Yazata.)
Reportedly (the Weather Channel) the eyewall is passing over Marsh Harbour on Abaco. (They should be in the eye somewhere between 3 to 4 EDT.) Marsh Harbour is one of the nicest places in the Bahamas and the eyewall is where the strongest winds are (up to 180 mph they say). I hope its residents survive and that their idyllic little town isn't blown to pieces.
YazataSep 2, 2019 02:56 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 2, 2019 03:12 AM by Yazata.)
Communications with much of Abaco is out. The Bahamas airport authority in the capital of Nassau is unable to establish communications with the Marsh Harbour airport. Last communications were 7 1/2 hours ago. Photos have leaked out showing some Abaco towns totally devastated:
YazataSep 2, 2019 04:39 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 2, 2019 05:45 AM by Yazata.)
Looks like the Florida electric companies are ready for action. Electric companies from all over the Southeast have reportedly sent linemen and trucks to help getting electricity up and running again. They are being staged like a military operation. See here:
Speaking of armies, the Florida Governor has called up something like 2,500 National Guard troops to be ready to deploy wherever needed.
The eye is currently over eastern Grand Bahama island.
Port Canaveral (Cape Canaveral's ocean shipping port, used by the SpaceX fleet, freighters delivering rocket parts, and by many cruise ships, has declared Hurricane Condition Zulu. This is the highest of the hurricane conditions. It was previously in Hurricane Condition Yankee, were all ships and boats were encouraged to flee, and all vessels over 500 tons ordered out. Zulu means the port is cleared and locked down, and closed to all shipping. They warn any ship that didn't heed the Condition Yankee warning to get out of dodge by morning, when the drawbridges are to be locked down.
Julia Bergeron paid her last pre-storm visit to the Starship in Cocoa. There were SpaceX workers there three hours ago with lights on in the large low building. So it isn't evacuated yet and they are presumably doing final preparations. Julia tells Starship, "See you on the other side, girl." As for me, I'm worried that it will be destroyed if the storm is as intense as it threatens to be. The Cocoa starship may have to start over again at the beginning after getting oh, so close.
The Bahamians are estimating that some 13,000 buildings on the island of Abaco alone may be rendered uninhabitable or destroyed. That's probably a majority of the homes on the island. They have dispatched their Royal Bahamas Defence Force (basically a coast guard with several small patrol ships) to survey the parts of the island that aren't responding and are out of touch.
Meanwhile Dorian is slowly moving westward along Grand Bahama towards Freeport, the second largest city in the Bahamas (population about 27,000) and a major vacation resort. The eye is about 30 miles from Freeport and has almost stopped and is only moving about 1 mph (2 kph). We can walk faster.
Freeport reports severe storm surge with water as high as building roofs. People are dying there as we speak.
Bahamians report the first confirmed fatality, a small boy whose family was trying to flee their destroyed house. His sister is missing. Despite only one confirmed fatality at this early date, there's a growing number of missing persons on Abaco. (Many of them are probably ok, just out of touch due to cell phones being down, and their families elsewhere get scared and report them missing.)
Dorian is said to be about 136 miles from Nassau, the Bahamas' capital. But even Nassau is reporting localized flooding and more widespread power outages. The significance of that is that even if Dorian remains offshore while moving up the US east coast, it will probably be closer than 136 miles. So the American coast should be seeing similar impacts.
YazataSep 3, 2019 12:09 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 3, 2019 01:10 AM by Yazata.)
The Bahamian Prime Minister has verified that the US Coast Guard has arrived in Marsh Harbour, Abaco island, and are conducting rescues as we speak. The USCG has sent MH60 helicopters and other aircraft including C-130's to a staging area on Andros island. From there they will fan out to worse hit areas. That seems to be Abaco right now, since conditions in Freeport and the rest of Grand Bahama are still too dangerous for helicopters.
These are generally low flat islands, so the big storm surge can basically make the islands seem to submerge into the ocean. Here's a local guy's front yard:
Conditions in Freeport (pop 27K) are reportedly pretty bad. Everyone who couldn't/wouldn't leave were told to go to several designated shelters in strong buildings. So the shelters were already crowded. Then several of them flooded. Moving from one shelter to another in 150 mile per hour winds through ten foot deep storm surge is impossible. So...
The hurricane has reportedly stalled out and isn't moving. Its evil eye just sits there 25 miles from Freeport and the inner bands batter the town over and over and over and over... It has declined from a category 5 to "only" a category 4 though.
Sep 1, 2019 02:47 AM
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