While it's just sitting motionless on the northern shore of Grand Bahama island (continuing to beat the crap out of Freeport) it's weakening. Now it's a category 3.
YazataSep 4, 2019 12:52 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 4, 2019 03:18 AM by Yazata.)
Hurricane Dorian has arrived at Cape Canaveral and the outer bands are passing over Cocoa and its Starship.
Reports from the scene suggest that it looks worse on the weather radar than it does on the ground. Weather is gusty but nothing scary or dangerous at this point at least. (Photo by Julia Bergeron)
Edit: Later report from the Weather Channel suggests that rain has picked up considerably but still not a whole lot of wind.
Edit 2: Eye now directly off Cape Canaveral. Wind picking up quite a bit, strong and continuous. Still not as bad as one would expect from a hurricane though. Maybe tropical storm force. Points nearby on the coast are reporting sustained wind speeds in the 40's (mph) with gusts in the 50's.
It could be worse.
This was once Marsh Harbour on Abaco. It used to be one of the nicest places in the Bahamas. (Just from the looks of it, I fear that loss of life might be heavy in places like this. Makes me sad.) This wasn't 40 mph winds, this was 180 mph wind-from-hell.
Reports that the British Royal Navy auxiliary supply ship RFA Mounts Bay is nearby and will be delivering food and relief supplies to Abaco in a day or so.
YazataSep 4, 2019 07:29 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 4, 2019 08:08 PM by Yazata.)
Current Cape Canaveral weather drizzly with occasional gusts. Businesses in Cocoa and the other towns are starting to reopen. The Cape Canaveral evacuation order has been lifted. There are some 300,000 people in Brevard County and only some 2,000 are without electricity this morning.
OCISLY the east-coast landing-barge/drone-ship was the only part of the SpaceX fleet that remained in Port Canaveral. It was photographed this morning and it looks fine and no damage was visible. (The Octagrabber was aboard! When people say "Get a grip!!", the Octagrabber knows precisely what to do.)
YazataSep 5, 2019 06:41 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 6, 2019 04:17 PM by Yazata.)
Dorian is now off the coast of South Carolina. It's right on the cusp between category 2 and category 3. Winds aren't all that strong on shore, maybe tropical storm force, but there's some storm surge flooding in Charleston and other coastal towns:
As Dorian's effects on the US prove to not be as bad as feared, the Coast Guard seems to be shifting assets to the devastated Bahamas. There are now 10 Coast Guard helicopters there and three CG cutters, with more on their way. The British naval supply ship has arrived with one helicopter along with small boats and is distributing aid.
RFA Mounts Bay reports that it is serving as a refueling station for the USCG helicopters, allowing them more flight time over Abaco and Grand Bahama without having to fly back to Andros island where their forward operating base is.
YazataSep 6, 2019 04:08 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 6, 2019 05:49 PM by Yazata.)
Dorian has come ashore in North Carolina's outer banks, where winds up to 100 mph are reported along with storm surge up to five feet deep in places. It's described as potentially "life threatening".
The ships of the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group were already on maneuvers off the Carolina coast when Dorian approached. They are standing clear of Dorian and are prepared to lend assistance to the Carolinas if needed. They are also ready to deploy to the Bahamas. This includes the USMC 26'th Marine Expeditionary Unit.
The Amphibious Assault Ship USS Bataan (one of those mini-aircraft-carriers) includes a 600 bed hospital and a very high capacity water distillation unit able to produce 200,000 gallons of drinkable water a day.
But in order to deploy to the Bahamas, they need a formal invitation from the Bahamian government and as of now that hasn't been received. The Bahamas are ok with the US Coast Guard and have even granted them exemptions from various Bahamian emergency restrictions on travel to the disaster areas. (As of now, every private flight to the stricken islands needs approval.) But thousands of US Marines might look more like an invasion to them.
There are also complaints from private humanitarian aid organizations that have flown supply flights to Nassau that their aid is just sitting at the airport waiting for Bahamian approval to deliver it to the stricken islands. It sounds like the Bahamian government, never the most efficient in the best of times, is simply overwhelmed. They don't know how to transport large aid shipments to the islands given the almost total destruction, what points on the stricken islands are equipped to receive it, or even where it's most needed. There seem to be multiple Bahamian offices that don't seem to be communicating effectively. One office will approve a shipment, while another denies it.
Reports that two US Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor VTOL aircraft from the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group have already arrived in the Bahamas though. They were transporting a US Air Force airfield recovery team from Homestead Air Force Base tasked with getting Bahamian airports on Grand Bahama and Abaco up and running again in minimal fashion so that they can receive aid flights in larger fixed wing aircraft. So the problems above are starting to be addressed, I guess.
Homestead says, "The base quickly shifted from preparing for dangerous Hurricane Dorian, to a logistical hub to facilitate the movement of humanitarian commodities and personnel throughout the Bahamas. Under Foreign Disaster Relief Authority, USNORTHCOM is conducting assessments of critical transportation nodes to facilitate humanitarian assistance and maximize the flow of disaster relief into the area."
YazataSep 6, 2019 05:16 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 6, 2019 05:22 PM by Yazata.)
Check this out. Some guy in Jacksonville Florida spent almost $50,000 of his own money to buy 100 generators at Costco, for shipment to the Bahamas. He wants to remain anonymous but says "We have to help each other out. It's better than just sitting there. You see a need and you fill it." Getting his generators to where they are most needed might take some doing, given the chaos in the Bahamas.
C CSep 6, 2019 05:40 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 6, 2019 05:48 PM by C C.
Edit Reason: added "paranoia"
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(Sep 6, 2019 04:08 PM)Yazata Wrote: [...] But in order to deploy to the Bahamas, they need a formal invitation from the Bahamian government and as of now that hasn't been received. The Bahamas are ok with the US Coast Guard and have even granted them exemptions from various Bahamian regulations, approvals and restrictions on travel to the disaster areas. (As of now, every private flight to the stricken islands needs approval.) But thousands of US Marines might look more like an invasion to them.
There are also complaints from private humanitarian aid organizations that have flown supply flights to Nassau that their aid is just sitting at the airport waiting for Bahamian approval to deliver it to the stricken islands. It sounds like the Bahamian government, never the most efficient in the best of times, is simply overwhelmed. They don't know how to transport large aid shipments to the islands given the almost total destruction, what points on the stricken islands is equipped to receive it, or even where it's most needed. There seem to be multiple Bahamian offices that don't seem to be communicating effectively. One office will approve a shipment, while another denies it.
And yet in the months ahead it might be the outside international community (primarily the US, its administration, etc) that will be blamed for the aggravated woes actually resulting from the Bah-gov's sluggishness, ineptitude, and paranoia. Volunteer humanitarianism on a large scale rarely goes unchastened? (brother's keeper)
(Sep 6, 2019 05:40 PM)C C Wrote: And yet in the months ahead it might be the outside international community (primarily the US, its administration, etc) that will be blamed for the aggravated woes actually resulting from the Bah-gov's sluggishness, ineptitude, and paranoia. Volunteer humanitarianism on a large scale rarely goes unchastened? (brother's keeper)
I don't want to be too critical of the Bahamas. Logistics in the wake of a disaster like this is a real problem.
The Red Cross or somebody flies a planeload of relief supplies to Nassau. Then the supplies have to get to Freeport. But how? The Freeport airport is out of action. The supplies could maybe be sent by boat. But are there any port facilities left in Freeport? What if the aid is needed more urgently someplace else? Is there any road transportation on these islands? Is there anybody to organize things?
So maybe the idea of flying helicopter surveys, then landing a team at Freeport airport (or wherever is most promising) to clear the runway and get some generator powered ground to air radio going at the very least, might be a legitimate way of attacking this. Then the supplies that are accumulating in Nassau could be flown in by smaller fixed-wing transport planes able to land in the relatively crude conditions.
But the Marines would certainly add valuable capabilities. They would be able to bring ashore heavy military vehicles by landing craft, able to traverse otherwise impassable roads and reach outlying settlements. The hospital on the USS Bataan would obviously be useful since I'd guess that there are lots of injured people. The water distillation plant could supply many of the people on the stricken islands with drinking water. And there's even a security aspect since there's no law-and-order left in some of these places and people are desperate.
YazataSep 6, 2019 08:40 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 6, 2019 09:13 PM by Yazata.)
Dorian has cleared the Carolinas and is back out at sea.
Interestingly, it now seems headed for... Canada! The US National Hurricane Center's 2 PM EDT Friday 9/6/19 cone projects it striking Halifax head-on while still at hurricane strength. (It's called karma, Kim Campbell...) Most of Nova Scotia is under hurricane warning and the rest is under both hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. Prince Edward Island is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning and there's even a hurricane watch for the west coast of Newfoundland! (Hurricanes... in Newfoundland?!)
Halifax looks to me to be about the same size, population and geography as Charleston South Carolina (rivers/inlets on both sides of a peninsula shaped city site) so Halifax might experience some flooding from surge if water is forced back up into its harbour. Dorian was stronger in the warm waters off Charleston, but it was out at sea. It will be weaker by the time it reaches Nova Scotia, but if it passes right over Halifax... Both cities are historical, atmospheric and attractive, with lots of old buildings, so I hate to see either one damaged.
Hopefully Dorian either veers off or else weakens into just a big rain storm by the time it hits Nova Scotia.