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+--- Thread: Hurricane Dorian (/thread-7538.html)
Hurricane Dorian - Yazata - Aug 29, 2019
A couple of days ago it was just a tropical storm that threatened to become a weak category 1 hurricane as it passed Puerto Rico, then was expected to weaken into a tropical depression over the Bahamas.
But now that its a category 1 hurricane that's hitting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it threatens to strengthen into a major hurricane by the time it hits Florida. Increasingly scary.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
![[Image: 000122_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/000122_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Leigha - Aug 29, 2019
I live in Florida, but on the west coast, and hope by some miracle, Dorian's path swerves out to the right of the state, and into the ocean. But, I'm not one of those who run to the store, and buy a three months supply of perishables and water bottles. Irma was two years ago, and that was a scary event, but nothing happened in my area, really. I think if you live inland, things usually aren't as bad as if you live near or on the ocean and intercoastal waterways.
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Yazata - Aug 30, 2019
Very good article about the uncertainties in Hurricane Dorians's path.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/08/confidence-in-hurricane-dorians-track-is-extremely-low/
There are a variety of models that (given the same initial conditions) all show Dorian striking the east coast of Florida. Not clear where though. (The tendency does seem to be drifting southwards away from Cape Canaveral more towards Palm Beach.
The different models
![[Image: aal05_2019082918_track_early.png]](https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/aal05_2019082918_track_early.png)
But... the data isn't precise. If one just picks a single model and runs it several times with slightly different initial conditions, things look very different. The tracks all cluster together initially and put the hurricane in roughly the same place in a day. In two days, the cluster is looser. In three days the tracks go all over (like herding cats). Chaotic dynamics. That's just one model with slightly different initial conditions.
Illustration of the same model with slightly different initial conditions
![[Image: AL05_2019082912_ECENS_0-120h_large-1.png]](https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/AL05_2019082912_ECENS_0-120h_large-1.png)
Then there are lots of uncertainties about the forces that will steer this thing. The atmospheric pressure ridges are weak and it's uncertain how they will evolve.
So bottom line: The only thing that people are sure about is that they can't be sure about any of it. The hurricane may be relatively weak and overhyped. Or it may be a category 4 or 5. It could strike anywhere in Florida. What it does after that is even less certain. It will probably turn north and then east, but nobody can say when and where.
The (automatically updated) National Hurricane Center's cone -- which still includes the possibility that the storm's center could end up anywhere in Florida (except Pensacola).
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Yazata - Aug 31, 2019
As it gets closer to Florida, the projected paths are converging towards a more rapid right turn. It now looks like the west coast of Florida is no longer in the potential bullseye. If this trend continues, the center of the storm may remain offshore and eastern Florida might only experience its edges.
That's my hope.
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Leigha - Aug 31, 2019
I'm hopeful it will stay on course to remain more in the ocean, taking an eastern turn. It was a nice thing to wake up to this morning, but it makes me wonder...how is it that one weather event affecting just one or two states, using up so many resources? (gas and water running out here in Florida) I'm on the west coast, and gas stations are running out of gas...and closing. Sure, better safe than sorry, but think the media jumped the gun with creating wide spread panic, because now with gas stations out of gas, where will ambulances, fire trucks, etc get their gas? It's like everyone is ready for a storm that likely won't impact us much here on the west coast, but the resources are used up.
RE: Hurricane Dorian - stryder - Aug 31, 2019
(Aug 31, 2019 06:35 PM)Leigha Wrote: I'm hopeful it will stay on course to remain more in the ocean, taking an eastern turn. It was a nice thing to wake up to this morning, but it makes me wonder...how is it that one weather event affecting just one or two states, using up so many resources? (gas and water running out here in Florida) I'm on the west coast, and gas stations are running out of gas...and closing. Sure, better safe than sorry, but think the media jumped the gun with creating wide spread panic, because now with gas stations out of gas, where will ambulances, fire trucks, etc get their gas? It's like everyone is ready for a storm that likely won't impact us much here on the west coast, but the resources are used up.
I would guess the fuel isn't just sold off to people. There is a high likelihood that the petrol stations actually have it pumped back into tankers so that it can be stored some place else, this stops it potentially being turned to pollution if the underground tanks are overflowed with water from flooding as well as reduces losses through theft when a the depot is evacuated. (There is also the point that to put the fuel back in trucks to move it somewhere else and then to eventually move it back also means the price of fuel will be pushed up stock wise not just locally)
Ambulance/Fire/Police likely all have a reserve they can access (probably through the National Guard)... if all else fails though you could try to escape on deepfry fat or you could try farms and marinas for fuel surplus.
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Syne - Aug 31, 2019
No, it's the volume of people fleeing that is causing the fuel outages: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/30/hurricane-dorian-gas-stations/2162882001/
I don't remember Floridians being that panicky when I lived there.
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Leigha - Sep 1, 2019
I’m not one of them. But it could be all the thousands of newbies moving to Florida who think a tropical storm is reason to panic.
RE: Hurricane Dorian - RainbowUnicorn - Sep 1, 2019
(Aug 29, 2019 03:35 AM)Leigha Wrote: I live in Florida, but on the west coast, and hope by some miracle, Dorian's path swerves out to the right of the state, and into the ocean. But, I'm not one of those who run to the store, and buy a three months supply of perishables and water bottles. Irma was two years ago, and that was a scary event, but nothing happened in my area, really. I think if you live inland, things usually aren't as bad as if you live near or on the ocean and intercoastal waterways.
Florida is the Zimmerman state
odd mix of holiday homes, tourist business transient temporary short term tourist staff, hospitality short term staff and buss loads of blue-wrinses
do elderly tip really poorly ?
such a strange cacophony teenage workers on terrible wages serving old rich people who don't tip in a tourist town that looks like a buss stop on a drivers strike day amidst a grey sky and looming hurricane.
all to the sound of endless star spangled banner playing in the background with everyone yelling "capitalism" like a battle cry while they desperately hope for socialism.
intermingled with health insurance Agents dressed like game show hosts taking random old people out to extravagant lunches while attempting to extract personal health info about clients so they can cancel their insurance policy's...
(Aug 31, 2019 06:35 PM)Leigha Wrote: I'm hopeful it will stay on course to remain more in the ocean, taking an eastern turn. It was a nice thing to wake up to this morning, but it makes me wonder...how is it that one weather event affecting just one or two states, using up so many resources? (gas and water running out here in Florida) I'm on the west coast, and gas stations are running out of gas...and closing. Sure, better safe than sorry, but think the media jumped the gun with creating wide spread panic, because now with gas stations out of gas, where will ambulances, fire trucks, etc get their gas? It's like everyone is ready for a storm that likely won't impact us much here on the west coast, but the resources are used up.
what irony this demand and supply capitalism is when you have such illustrious intellectual leadership governing how entire citys should be run.
the capitalist response to your question is "who cares its sold and thats a good thing, you need to be in first if you want the good deals"
the irony is the sound made by alt-right capitalists claiming some type of dictatorship of private business assets and goods as if they can take control of them like a socialist policy then claim they are in fact helping to provide AID to the civilians.
its such a mockery.
like the destitute looking civilians shoveling sand into bags with bad backs and ill health (and too fat).
"if they cant do it themselves its not worth a damn" ... "not worth a damn in hell" ...
footnote
the longer is stays straddling the coast line, the more flooding it will cause as it pushes sea water in via the low pressure wave and longer sitting rain cycling water up and then down onto the land.
i desperately hope quaky bugal pants (with non webbed feet)will morph into some intelligent being and stride into a position of knowledge and leadership... but alas.. its always all about pretending and dodging as much decision making as possible to preserve the ability to be seen as not doing anything to avoid losing votes...
... want to be leader of a country but dont know shit about how to run a crisis centre(control room) ...
probably washes well for an ex actor who can point missiles in different directions and make the occasional scream and finger point yelling dirty commys.
... the fat kid in the corner acting spoilt is only here for the free pies... just ignore him.
and so now the majority of the people just ignore the leadership because that is how they have acted...
(Aug 31, 2019 10:48 PM)stryder Wrote:(Aug 31, 2019 06:35 PM)Leigha Wrote: I'm hopeful it will stay on course to remain more in the ocean, taking an eastern turn. It was a nice thing to wake up to this morning, but it makes me wonder...how is it that one weather event affecting just one or two states, using up so many resources? (gas and water running out here in Florida) I'm on the west coast, and gas stations are running out of gas...and closing. Sure, better safe than sorry, but think the media jumped the gun with creating wide spread panic, because now with gas stations out of gas, where will ambulances, fire trucks, etc get their gas? It's like everyone is ready for a storm that likely won't impact us much here on the west coast, but the resources are used up.
I would guess the fuel isn't just sold off to people. There is a high likelihood that the petrol stations actually have it pumped back into tankers so that it can be stored some place else, this stops it potentially being turned to pollution if the underground tanks are overflowed with water from flooding as well as reduces losses through theft when a the depot is evacuated. (There is also the point that to put the fuel back in trucks to move it somewhere else and then to eventually move it back also means the price of fuel will be pushed up stock wise not just locally)
Ambulance/Fire/Police likely all have a reserve they can access (probably through the National Guard)... if all else fails though you could try to escape on deepfry fat or you could try farms and marinas for fuel surplus.
are American paramedics highly trained ?
cant imagine they will be wanting to send out a half million dollar ambulance with un replaceable staff on board into a hurricane.
that use to be a really big problem with Americans
refusing to evacuate because the government was hopeless but then expecting to be rescued in the middle of it and claiming they are being abandoned.
additionally, no evacuation transport for civilians
evacuation orders should take control of trains and busses and ferrys and simply reimburse the passenger fair to the company from the central government..
but they play budget games with thousands of peoples lives
trying to avoid being the one to use their budget to do anything.
its all quite psychopathic
operationally these usa things always seem to look like a handbag fight in a nunnery full of drunk nuns
RE: Hurricane Dorian - Leigha - Sep 1, 2019
I don’t live in a touristy place, Rainbow. All of Florida isn’t made up of tourists and elderly people lol But, it’s becoming over crowded and I would like to live somewhere that has a change of seasons and culture. But not tons of snow.
And no hurricanes!
