Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

Photo of an Iranian submarine being blown up

It's telling how just about all of the Iranian naval vessels destroyed have been destroyed in port. Neither the regular Iranian navy or the IRGC navy seem to have made any attempt to sail out and engage the Americans. (While suicide bombers are a thing, suicide sailors don't seem to be.)

It's not going anything like how the IRGC imagined it:

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2020899578753507731

(US DoW photo)

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[Yazata]

Today, for the first time, three of the B-1's located at RAF Fairford in England, launched an air-strike on Iran directly from British soil.

Keir Starmer relented and allowed combat missions to be flown from the UK for "defensive" purposes. And given the bashing that British friends like the UAE were receiving in the Persian gulf, he decided that strikes on Iran's missile and drone programs were indeed defensive.

Starmer's decision is not popular with the left on either side of the Atlantic.

(Times of London photo)

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(Military Air Tracking Alliance graphic)

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Photos purporting to be of bombs being prepared for loading into the B-1's lead some observers to believe that they are BLU-121B bombs.

Military Periscope says:

"The BLU-121/B is a 2,000-lb (910-kg) thermobaric penetrator warhead developed under the Hard Target Defeat program for the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency. It is a successor to the BLU-118/B thermobaric warhead that entered Air Force service in 2001. The BLU-121/B is designed to attack tunnel targets. It also provides some penetrating capability while delivering significant blast overpressure, according to the Air Force."

The fact that Iran stores many of its missiles and drones in tunnels in hopes of protecting them from air attack explains the value of bombs specifically designed to attack tunnel targets.

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[Yazata]

According to 'Defense Geek' (the editor of the UK Defense Journal):

--- Operation EPIC FURY ---

RAF Fairford now has the following US Air Force bomber aircraft available for #OperationEpicFury, following the arrival of 4 additional B-1B "Lancer" aircraft this afternoon:

B-1B 85-0064 #AE6BD3 (DY) "Eliminator"
B-1B 85-0088 #AE6BE1 (DY) (No nickname identified)
B-1B 86-0107 #AE6BEF (WA) "Dragon Slayer"
B-1B 86-0140 #AE6C0B (DY) "Last Lance"
B-1B 86-0120 #AE6BFA (EL) "Whiskey Pete"
B-1B 86-0121 #AE6BFB (EL) "Symphony of Destruction"
B-1B 86-0139 #AE6C0A (EL) "Drifter"
B-1B 86-0108 #AE6BF0 (EL) "Alien with an Attitude"
B-52H 60-0023 #AE587C (MT) "Bomber Barons"
B-52H 60-0060 #AE5895 (MT) "Iron Butterfly"
B-52H 60-0007 #AE5871 (MT) "Guardians of the Upper Realm"
B-1B 86-0138 #AE6C09 (EL) "Seek and Destroy"
B-1B 85-0072 #AE6BD6 (EL) "Polarized"
B-1B 86-0102 #AE6BEB (EL) "Bad Moon Rising"
B-1B 86-0129 #AE6C02 (EL) "The Black Widow"

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[Yazata]

Photos from Iranian dissidents inside Iran

IRGC/Basij operating out of a kindergarten in Tehran

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Apparently they have moved their internal security operations into school buildings and hospitals after the US and the Israelis started targeting more easily identifiable IRGC facilities and police stations in hopes of weakening their grip on their own people. And we know if we target schools and hospitals, the Iranian regime will scream 'Dead Children! War Crime!' and a great deal of the media in the US and Europe will amplify that narrative.

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[Syne]

I guess the Ayatollahs win, huh MR? Just give up and leave the poor Iranians to the retaliations?

[Zinjanthropos]

Never know what to believe. Have read that Israel closes their schools during wartime whereas Iran keeps their’s open. Is this true? AI seemed to think so but I realize it can be wrong. AI said it was to maintain normalcy, whatever that means. Would need an honest Israeli or Iranian to tell us the truth but those may be hard to find also.

[Magical Realist]

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[Yazata]

Never know what to believe. Have read that Israel closes their schools during wartime whereas Iran keeps their’s open. Is this true?

I have no idea. All I can go by are the photos above, that show IRGC/Basij personnel but no children visible. So I'm guessing the schools are closed. Though if we or the Israelis bombed one of these schools turned police stations, we would get the '150 dead children' story with no actual evidence of dead kids at all.

Would need an honest Israeli or Iranian to tell us the truth but those may be hard to find also.

Yeah, everybody has a narrative that they are putting out.

[Zinjanthropos]

All I can go by are the photos above, that show IRGC/Basij personnel but no children visible. So I'm guessing the schools are closed.

Good observation and I’m sure the US/Israeli forces can see this too. You’d think they’d all be easy targets but just the idea of hitting a school seems to be enuf to deter an attacker. Is the court of public opinion dictating where they can bomb?

[Yazata]

This is/was the Jask naval base in Iran

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Iran's attacks on Israel have been significantly less intense in this 2026 war than in the 2025 12-day war.

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Etienne Marcuz, a French think-tank guy from frstrategie.org explains it this way ("MRBM" = medium range ballistic missile, "SRBM" = short range ballistic missile.)

One of the probable main reasons for the drastic drop in launches toward Israel would also be the fact that Iran's MRBM stockpile had been heavily depleted during the 2024 and 2025 strikes, while also being one of—if not THE—preferred targets of aerial attacks during the Twelve-Day War.

Moreover, production sites had been seriously damaged, preventing a rapid restocking of the inventory.

In contrast, the SRBM stockpile was largely intact at the start of the war on February 28, since it had barely been used in June 2025 (except for the limited retaliatory strike following Operation Midnight Hammer). It had furthermore probably not been—or only minimally—targeted by Israel, given that SRBMs posed no threat to them and were thus far down the priority chain.