Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

I'm getting really tired of this back and forth where Iran supposedly wants to deal, and then announces that its nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.

My impression is that President Trump really doesn't want to attack Iran by wrecking the electrical grid and internal road and rail communications, such that it causes the Iranian people severe hardship. He knows that the democrats would just accuse him of war crimes, the same way they have turned on Israel.

But I also think that President Trump is tired of feeling like he's being played by the Iranians. Whenever he hints at a more kinetic military campaign, they tell him that they are ready to deal and an agreement is just days away. So Trump calls off the strikes and the Iranians back away... and the whole thing just repeats over and over. (The Iranians watch US politics and hope the democrats gain some power in the midterm elections, so the IRGC wants to hold out till then.)

A complicating factor is countries like Qatar and Turkey, who want the US to make a deal. So they add to the chorus of "we're close, we're close". And that influences Trump, since he hopes to be the great peacemaker of the Middle East and really wants to keep them on board, so he feels that he needs to listen to them.

[Syne]

The vacillating is starting to make me wonder who, with inside knowledge, is profiting from the market response. I really hope that is not involved.

I'm still hoping that Trump's plan is to make sure, one way or another, that the US economy booms near enough to the midterms that no one has time to forget or start to think it's the baseline norm.

If it's just about a deal, Trump needs to realize that there is no deal with the regime/IRGC. They believe that one day Islam will rule the entire world, so they definitely have the patience to delay or agree to whatever while they wait for the next pussy Democrat to take office. Trump has already made every effort to prove that he wants a diplomatic off-ramp. Now it's time to prove to the IRGC that they have no future.

If we can do it with minimal risk, ideally that means taking control of Kharg island, so we don't have to destroy any infrastructure. If not, I'm sure the Iranian people are willing to lose bridges, power plants, and oil refining/shipping facilities until they can be rebuilt by a free Iran.

[Yazata]

Shehbaz Sharif (Prime Minister of Pakistan) says:

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I remain doubtful. I worry that the United States is being played by those who want to drag things out for as long as possible, by suggesting that they are ready to agree to things that they have no real intention of agreeing to.

Even if Pezeshkian (Iranian President) and Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister) are sincere, I'm not convinced that they are really the ones making decisions in Iran. The real rulers are Ahmad Vahidi and the hard-line leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who are the source of Iran's maximalist demands.

[Syne]

Yeah, I don't trust Pakistan (China cutout) nor any Iranian political class, as I agree, they have not demonstrated any power within Iran.
You cannot expect any real deal from people who have lied so frequently and so long.

I'd hate to see Trump have a Neville Chamberlain moment.