Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

https://youtu.be/F6qFpk7nXug

VIDEO EXCERPT: We are at the beginning of a revolutionary moment. But many times in Iran, we have seen this and the regime has been as brutal as necessary to stop the protests.

This time seems to be the biggest threat to the regime because everybody is involved. The capital, smaller towns, old people, young people.

Until we know whether the Revolutionary Guard continues to support the regime with all its force or not, we don't know what will happen next...

https://youtu.be/F6qFpk7nXug

The protests continue to escalate and are happening in hundreds of places all around the country. Reportedly several government buildings have been burned, though these are in provincial locations.

The regime has responded by shutting down the internet in Iran. Land line and cell telephones are dead. Even electical power is out in some locations. There's a trickle of information getting out over Starlink. (Iran hasn't approved Starlink, but SpaceX has activated it in Iran anyway, to serve the small number of Starlink terminals that have been smuggled in.)

Reports leaking out speak of panic bank-runs and say that Iranians are unable to make withdrawals from bank accounts. This might be the result of the internet being down, since things like bank branches and ATMs probably communicate by internet. If this is widespread, it will only increase opposition to the regime.

Reportedly demonstrations in a couple of smaller provincial cities were so large that local security forces couldn't handle them. But reinforcements from the central government weren't available because of the nationwide nature of the demonstrations, so those local security forces were forced to retreat. But that said, these seem to have been regular police, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps hasn't been called out in force yet.

And reportedly, the security forces have fired on demonstrators in some places. Dead seem to be in the double digits so far, but it's very hard to know given the communications blackout.

If they do call out the IRGC and blood flows in the streets, one wonders what the US would do. There hasn't been a visible buildup like we recently saw in the Caribbean, but America already has lots of forces (particularly aviation) located in the general area. Israel, Saudi Arabia or the UAE may or may not help. I wouldn't expect American or other ground forces to go in (apart from some special forces operations, perhaps) but air strikes would probably be on the agenda.

And (take this with a boulder of salt) there are rumors that Supreme Leader Khomeini has fled the country. This is totally unverified and probably untrue. But people are saying it. We know that he had contingency plans to flee but it's unlikely that they have already been put into effect. The situation doesn't seem bad enough yet to justify it. (Hopefully it continues to worsen.) But there are indications that what happened to Maduro in Venezuela really spooked him, and he's feeling very insecure right now.

Just imagine if Iran could become a modernized country again, like it was in the 60s & 70s.

The Official news agency says six members of the security forces were killed in the city of Hamadan, and "several more" in the capital of Tehran.

Opposition sources are saying (it's been confirmed) that the security forces in Tehran are firing into the crowds with live ammunition and claim that there are already more dead in Tehran than died in the Twelve-Day War with Israel. Update Iranian opposition sources say that the death toll nationwide is at least 2,000 dead.



There are currently crowds of 100-200,000 in the streets of more upscale and anti-regime north Tehran. They seem to be in the downtown area too where the government offices are.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Trump Administration is holding "preliminary discussions" to select targets in Iran that should be hit if President Trump decides to follow through on his threat to strike if the regime starts killing demonstrators.

President Trump just posted this



It's unclear what "help" means in this instance. There has been no large movement of US military assets into the area of Iran recently. Just routine rotations. Update Two C17's from Ramstein and Zweibrucken in Germany are currently in the air headed to Saudi Arabia. Two planes isn't much, unless it is the beginning of something bigger. (Remember the large airlift of what looked like US Special Forces into RAF Fairford in England a few days ago. I believe they moved on to Ramstein in Germany. Maybe it's time for them to get moving again.)

Trump had warned Iran against killing protesters, so we'll see if they meet the threshold to call his bluff (which I'm betting isn't a bluff).

An opposition source just wrote this:

Assessment from contacts on the ground in Tehran: people can hold out at most two more nights. A lot of people are killed in the south Tehran(poorest part of Tehran). If outside assistance is coming, it must come now. People need to see tangible, kinetic action to sustain hope.

Report leaked out of Hamadan says there were large demonstrations in that city Thursday and Friday, but few if any on Saturday because the streets are controlled by armed regime enforcers ready and willing to shoot. A general strike is still in effect and almost all businesses are closed.

Photo taken 11:39 PM Saturday night local time in Shahrak Banafsheh west of Tehran

---

Ironic how the Iranian government can funnel guns, rockets, and explosives to any terrorist group in the Middle East that needs them. But Iranian citizens can't get squat in that department.

(Jan 11, 2026 02:58 AM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]Ironic how the Iranian government can funnel guns, rockets, and explosives to any terrorist group in the Middle East that needs them. But Iranian citizens can't get squat in that department.

It's why the United States has the Second Amendment.

The government monopoly on firearms guarantees that the people can't effectively rise up against the regime, even if 90% oppose it.

Same problem in Venezuela.