Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

#2 seems to be the choice of fanatical martyrs.

“The Iranians Are Hurting”: “They’re Getting Pretty Desperate, Want To Reopen the Strait” ... https://youtu.be/9z0Q-Bmgl6Q

Not too desperate if they're unwilling to give up nuclear weapons. There is no negotiating whether Iran gets nuclear weapons. Period.

(Apr 28, 2026 04:03 AM)Syne Wrote: [ -> ]Not too desperate if they're unwilling to give up nuclear weapons. There is no negotiating whether Iran gets nuclear weapons. Period.

The simplest way to deal with nukes in the future is to update the "M.A.D." response with a "Decimation" response. Thats where every country on the planet, no matter allegiance, no matter which treaty or what alliance all mutually agree to destroy the country that should ever launch a nuclear weapon as an act of war.

No fucking country would therefore be stupid enough to launch one in the future and it would undermine the very need for them in defence.

It's just getting countries to take that methodology on board and make sure they stick to it like both their countries and the other countries in the world lives depended on it.

Today (May 4) the ceasefire seems to be breaking down. The proximate cause was the United States announcing what it calls Project Freedom. This is what I've been predicting for some time, US protected convoys through the Strait of Hormuz.

The IRGC-navy predictably declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and also declared an Iranian control area in the Strait that includes a couple of important ports in the United Arab Emirates. (Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah)

The US kind of tested the waters by escorting two US flagged ships out that had been trapped in the Persian gulf since February. Iran fired ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at the ships, but all were successfully intercepted. Iran also sent out six small crewed speedboats, all of which were sunk by US helicopters. Meanwhile, at least two US guided missile destroyers transited through the strait the other way, into the Persian gulf.

Iran isn't just shooting ineffectively at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, they have also resumed firing at the United Arab Emirates. Sirens have been sounding in Dubai and explosions have been heard in the distance. The UAE defense ministry says that the explosions were their air defenses intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. Iran has successfully struck several civilian ships at anchor off the Emirati port of Ras Al Khaimah and has hit the major oil terminal at Fujairah, which the UAE uses to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. There's a big fire at the terminal and reportedly five Indian nationals working there were injured.

But while Iran shoots at the UAE with its remaining short range weaponry, as yet there have been no new attacks on Israel, Iran's hated enemy. Israeli readiness remains high and some in Israel expect US/Israeli air operations against Iran to resume within 48 hours.

For its part, I think that what would trigger a resumption of US air strikes on Iran would be if they succeeded in sinking/damaging an American warship.





The oil terminal at Fujairah

(May 4, 2026 08:50 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]The US kind of tested the waters by escorting two US flagged ships out that had been trapped in the Persian gulf since February. Iran fired ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at the ships, but all were successfully intercepted. Iran also sent out six small crewed speedboats, all of which were sunk by US helicopters. ...

U.S. Central Command Commander Adm. Brad Cooper described the actions by Iranian forces as “Iran initiating aggressive behavior” on a call with journalists Monday.
...
“You typically see between 20 and 40 small boats in a pack coming out,” he said. “Today we saw six and eliminated them quickly. I think this is an example of the degradation of their capability. That doesn’t mean it’s all gone, but it’s highly degraded.”
- https://www.dailywire.com/news/iran-targ...-ceasefire

The US appears to be flying combat air patrols over the Strait of Hormuz. A mix of USAF air tankers, including KC-46A 'Pegasus' tankers flying out of Tel Aviv-Ben Gurion and KC-135R's flying out of Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia are busy refueling them.

According to CBS news, the two US destroyers that passed through the Strait of Hormuz today from east to west, into the Persian gulf, were the USS Truxtun (DDG-103) and USS Mason (DDG-87). According to these reports the two ships were under almost constant attack by missiles, drones and by small boats. They had US air support overhead the whole time and they report that none of the Iranian fires succeeded in hitting them.