Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

(Jan 31, 2026 04:54 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [ -> ]Just don’t think Guard stops if they’re attacked and regime ousted. They would be easy to track, just follow the corpse trail.

Exactly. It would make them the next target. There's no point in the US attacking Iran to stop them killing civilians unless we keep attacking until the mass civilian casualties stop.

Things may or may not be quieting down, temporarily at least. President Trump spoke to a press gaggle aboard Air Force One as it flew from Washington DC to Palm Beach Florida:

"Reporter: “Sir, could you give us an update on where you're thinking is right now with Iran, if you have made a final decision on what you want to do?”

Trump: “I certainly can't tell you that, but we do have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction, as you know. I can't tell you. I hope they negotiate something that's acceptable.”

Reporter: “Saudi Arabia's defense minister reportedly said that if the U.S. backs off a strike, that will only embolden Tehran. What's your reaction to that, sir?”

Trump: “Some people think that. Some people don't. You can make a negotiated deal that would be satisfactory with no nuclear weapons. They should do that, but I don't know that they will. But they are talking to us, seriously talking to us.”

So... it's starting to look like the American objective is less regime-change in Iran than it is in eliminating the nuclear threat, which still exists despite being dramatically set back in June. We knew that Iran is scared of the possibility of an American attack and was indicating that they wanted to talk, and that's apparently happening.

Meanwhile Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are trying to set up formal talks between Steve Witcoff, the designated American negotiator and the Iranians in the Turkish capital of Ankara for later this week. Don't know if that will happen.

The Israeli Army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir just returned to Israel from meetings at the Pentagon. Upon his arrival a big meeting was held including him, the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister and the Mossad chief. And Israeli media is reporting that "sources" tell them that Zamir told Netanyahu that if the Americans attack, it will be two to six weeks away.

Apparently President Trump is in 'Give Peace a Chance' mode right now, after his military buildup communicated to the Mullahs that he really means business. (Negotiating from strength is his thing.)

For their part, the Iranians are talking tough. An Iranian diplomat told the Washington Post:



I'm really starting to think that saying one thing in public and something else privately is a Middle Eastern cultural thing. Some of the Gulf Arabs are saying publicly they will not join an American attack nor allow their territory or bases to be used by the US in an attack, while privately helping the US plan the attack. Iran is privately talking to Trump after pleading for talks, not bombs. While their diplomats say publicly (probably to look strong for home consumption) that talks aren't possible under current conditions.

Meanwhile...

A total of 30 C-17 flights have left Robert Gray Army Air Field at Fort Hood in Texas over the last few days. Of these, 8 have arrived at Ali Al Salim airbase in Kuwait, 8 have arrived at Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia, 7 at Muwaffaq airbase in Jordan and one at Al Udeid airbase in Qatar. The destinations of the other six remain unknown. It's generally believed that these transport planes were carrying many Patriot and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense) anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic-missile batteries. Many of these C-17's appear to be using Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany as a waypoint back and forth to the United States.

Other combat air assets (the F-35's and EA-18 Growlers) that were crossing the Atlantic have arrived in the Middle East CENTCOM area of responsibility using Portugal's Azores islands and Rota and Moron in Spain as waypoints.

Muslims, in general, believe it's moral to lie to the infidel (non-believers). So yeah, it's likely a wide-spread cultural thing.

Interesting media events today in Iran.

The Iranian state run Fars news network reported this morning that Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered that Iran immediately enter into talks with the United States on nuclear and other issues. The report was quickly picked up by many other news agencies.

Then just as suddenly, both Fars and the IRGC-run Tasnim news agencies deleted the stories. There's speculation that the more hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opposes talks with the US.

So there may be divisions inside the Iranian government.

Last I heard, talks between US Negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian representatives (the foreign minister?) are still scheduled to begin this Friday in Istanbul Turkey.

Witkoff is in Israel today where he's meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu. Probably to brief the Israelis on what the US position is so that we are on the same page and there are no surprises.

The anticipated talks did begin Friday, except in Oman and not in Turkey. While President Trump said they went well, I'm skeptical that they will reach any agreement. The talks already appear to have adjourned, with Steve Witcoff and Jared Kushner flying out today to visit the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the ocean offshore from Oman.

The US 'red-lines' appear to be

1. Iran halting uranium enrichment
2. All enriched uranium currently in Iran to be removed from that country
3. Limitations on range and quantities of Iranian ballistic missiles.
4, Iran halting support of its proxies in other countries (Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas and the Iraqi Shi'ite militias.

And realistically, it's hard to imagine Iran agreeing to that. Nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them are what they believe will make them an Islamic super-power, and they won't willingly give up what they perceive as their destiny.

On the other hand, the American military buildup has them seriously spooked and they have indicated that they want to talk. But it's likely that they hope to avoid a US attack by dragging out talks as long as possible.

And President Trump sees himself as a peacemaker and is very loathe to drag the United States and the world into a major war whose course might be hard to predict.

Will Iran launch huge numbers of missiles at Israel, whose missile defenses are rather depleted after the June 12-day war? It's conceivable that Israel's air defense might be overwhelmed and the country might be devastated with great loss of life. And what kind of terrorism could Iran unleash inside the United States? After four years of open borders, the US might be riddled with IRGC sleeper cells. We know that if they are attacked, Iran will want to take the war to us. It might be worse than 9-11.

And if, as is widely rumored, Iran has enough weapons-grade fissionable material for perhaps a dozen Hiroshima sized atomic bombs, and if they can smuggle one of them into Tel Aviv or New York City, all hell might break loose.

Even if those doomsday scenarios don't come to pass, overthrowing the Iranian theocratic regime might leave a failed state in its wake ruled by a whole assortment of local warlords. We saw what the power vacuum in Syria spawned (the crazy 'Islamic State' with its slavery and mass executions) so what replaces the mullahs might be something even worse. Like in neighboring Afghanistan, the US might be forced into a long-term military occupation in order to prop up whatever new government the Iranian dissidents try to create, to try to extend it into all corners of Iran, and generally to keep a lid on.

So... launching a major middle eastern war isn't something to be undertaken lightly. The bright spot in all this is that both the mullahs and President Trump seem to be looking for some kind of off-ramp. Unfortunately, each side's red-line conditions appear to be incompatible.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting this

Meanwhile, a total of 117 C-17 cargo flights have arrived at various middle eastern bases (mostly Muwaffaq in Jordan) with an additional 17-18 en-route. It's believed that most of these flights carried anti-aircraft and anti-missile batteries.

It's important to point out that this kind of buildup doesn't necessarily indicate that an attack on Iran is immanent. It's positioning of assets on the game-board in order to give commanders additional options.

Iranian channels associated with the IRGC have posted a rather well done but quite fanciful video showing them attacking the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group with missiles, drones, little speedboats (!?) and submarines. The Iranians imagine themselves devastating the Americans. There's no depiction of any American return fire and no explanation of how the Iranians were allowed to get so close as to be able to inflict this kind of damage.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2020899578753507731

Iran is preparing its Esfahan underground nuclear enrichment site for attack by plugging the tunnels leading to it.



USAF tankers 'dragging' six F-35A fighter jets are approaching RAF Lakenheath in England. They are expected to continue on to the middle east in a day or two.

I made a post to this thread today, but it seems to have gone missing in cyberspace... So I will try to repeat it more or less.

The nuclear aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush has been operating in the Atlantic off Norfolk VA, conducting training operations. Well, it's been ordered back to port to prepare for deployment to the Middle East within two weeks. It should arrive in the vicinity of Iran in about a month.

And knowing me, you have to expect some Elon news in every post. This time it's word that the US (CIA or whoever) smuggled some 6,000 Starlink terminals into Iran after the demonstrations were put down, so that dissidents can communicate with the outside world despite the government shutting down the internet.

And finally, here's the current order of battle by Defense Geek (who is the editor in chief of the UK Defense Journal).



Most of Iran's aircraft are obsolescent types, some dating back to the days of Nixon and the Shah back in the 1970's. And it's questionable how many of the planes that exist on paper are actually flyable. So here's another X participant's estimate about how many of Iran's planes are actually available for combat with the Americans.



The Chengdu J-7 is a Chinese copy of the old Russian Mig-21. The F-14's are still very good aircraft, but they date back to the Nixon administration without spare parts or modern upgrades. The Saeqeh is a local Iranian made copy of the American F-5.

It's notable that when the Israelis were pummeling Iran during the 12-day war this summer, the Iranian airforce was a non-factor. What the Israelis most feared were the surface to air missiles, which they effectively suppressed with electronic countermeasures. The US has similar countermeasures.

(Feb 13, 2026 04:46 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]The nuclear aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush has been operating in the Atlantic off Norfolk VA, conducting training operations. Well, it's been ordered back to port to prepare for deployment to the Middle East within two weeks. It should arrive in the vicinity of Iran in about a month.

Correction: Indications are that the second carrier dispatched to the Middle East wasn't the USS George H.W. Bush but rather the USS Gerald Ford and its battle group, which had been operating in the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico. These ships are currently headed east across the Atlantic in the direction of Gibraltar.

As of today, some 163 C-17 and C-5 transport flights have flown from the United States to the Middle East, some by way of European bases. At least 98 of the flights landed at Muwaffaq air base in Jordan, 20 at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia, and 18 at Al Salem air base in Kuwait. Almost all of the flights originated at US Army bases and are believed to have transported air defense and anti-missile batteries. So they indicate a dramatically heightened defensive posture. We still haven't seen large scale movement of attack aircraft from the US, though quite potent forces are already at Muwaffaq with many more staged at Lakenheath in England.

The United States never comments on submarine deployments, since they are the ultimate stealth warships. But it's believed that the USS Georgia is in the Arabian Sea, in the vicinity of the Abraham Lincoln battle group. The Georgia is a SSGN, a former ballistic missile submarine converted to carry large numbers of TLAMs (Tomahawk land attack missiles) in its missile tubes. Combined with the abundant Tomahawks on the various destroyers in the Lincoln and Ford battle groups there should be as many as 600 naval cruise missiles available.

Each B-52 can carry 20 air launched cruise missiles, so ten B-52's launched from the United States could deliver 200 cruise missiles. That's 800... each one precision guided. And I'm assuming that our spy satellites and human agents inside Iran are collecting as much targeting data as they can.

So I'm guessing that crewed US aircraft wouldn't even penetrate Iranian airspace until Iranian defenses are suppressed, along with as much of their retaliatory attack capability as possible.

Six very potent F-22 fighter planes have arrived at RAF Lakenheath, after departing earlier from Langley Air Force Base in VA. It's believed that six more will soon follow.

12 US F-16's were photographed today landing in Lages in Portugal's Azores islands in the Atlantic, a commonly used refueling stop.

And two E-3B/C AWACS aircraft departed from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, flew east over Canada and Greenland, arriving at RAF Mildenhall in England.

(The photo below and associated video is purportedly from Mildenhall. The ZZ tail code in the photo indicates this particular plane is based from Kadena in Okinawa Japan. So if it relocated to England, it came halfway around the world, and Elmendorf was just a refueling stop.)