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Full Version: Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)
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Marine protesting Iran war is wrestled out of Senate chambers and gets his hand broken:

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1842265869824655

Quote:It's amazing how much mileage Trump continues to get out of that, after a decade. Get Democrats to hate him so much that they substitute reasoning with the automatic simplicity of "just support anything Trump is against" and "be against anything that Trump is for or behind". Triggering the Party to choose (appearance-wise) unauthorized migrants over citizens, to become pro-Hamas, pro-Maduro, pro-Iranian, goading New Yorkers to vote in a socialist, etc.

The crap Trump keeps pulling is forcing everyone to revisit their political first principles, which isn't really a bad thing. Democrats are simply becoming the core peaceloving, anti-fascist, pro-palestinian leftists they've always been. I myself am considering unleashing my own inner anarchist, running thru the streets with a molotov cocktail and a rose between my teeth. Viva la revolucion! It's like being born again.
(Mar 5, 2026 06:34 PM)Magical Realist Wrote: [ -> ]Marine protesting Iran war is wrestled out of Senate chambers and gets his hand broken:

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1842265869824655
Former marine and current Green Party candidate for Senate, likely ginning up attention for his campaign.

Quote:
Quote:It's amazing how much mileage Trump continues to get out of that, after a decade. Get Democrats to hate him so much that they substitute reasoning with the automatic simplicity of "just support anything Trump is against" and "be against anything that Trump is for or behind". Triggering the Party to choose (appearance-wise) unauthorized migrants over citizens, to become pro-Hamas, pro-Maduro, pro-Iranian, goading New Yorkers to vote in a socialist, etc.

The crap Trump keeps pulling is forcing everyone to revisit their political first principles, which isn't really a bad thing. Democrats are simply becoming the core peaceloving, anti-fascist, pro-palestinian leftists they've always been. I myself am considering unleashing my own inner anarchist, running thru the streets with a molotov cocktail and a rose between my teeth. Viva la revolucion! It's like being born again.

(Mar 5, 2026 04:55 PM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]Essentially, reflexively "shoot first" due to Trump and later invent and select justifications that make it look like there was a more complicated process behind the decision. Rather than the initially motivated, emotionally-driven kernel that the structure was built around.
As just demonstrated. 9_9
Quote:As just demonstrated. 9_9

LOL Coming from a MAGA dolt who rationalizes and defends everything Trump says and does..
(Mar 5, 2026 08:46 PM)Magical Realist Wrote: [ -> ]
Quote:As just demonstrated. 9_9

LOL Coming from a MAGA dolt who rationalizes and defends everything Trump says and does..

You only think that because of your knee-jerk TDS.

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(Mar 5, 2026 07:50 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Update The Washington Post says that US defense officials tell them that the F-15 shootdown story above isn't true.

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The fact that Iran is expending most of its remaining energy attacking the Gulf Arabs - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain - while the United States fights alongside them and defends them is contributing to a dramatic political realignment of the Middle East! It builds on the momentum created by President Trump's Gaza peace plan a few months ago. At one time these countries tended to be hostile to the United States because of our support for Israel. But today they all find themselves fighting alongside the United States and Israel! I expect that the Abraham Accords might expand when this is over. Americans in Dubai are talking about how friendly and pro-American the locals are. That's not something that we are used to seeing in the Arab world.

Combined with the obvious impacts on Russia and China, it does look like 4-D chess.

Already, just six days in, the Iranian military is reeling. The top leadership of the regime is decimated. The #1 US objective is destroying the Iranian nuclear program and while it's been slowed down, it isn't dead yet. So that still needs work. The #2 objective is destroying the ballistic missile program. Today about 80-90% of Iran's missiles are destroyed along with many of the factories that make them. Drones are another concern and they have been harder to eliminate, That still needs work as well. The #3 objective is halting Iranian support for its radical proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and various Shi'ite militias in Iraq - the Israelis have already pretty much taken care of Hamas). That third goal has pretty much been completed since Iran is no longer in much of a position to support them.

So bottom line is that the US has already achieved most of its goals, with the exception of ensuring that the nuclear program is well and truly dead. Meaning that less than a week in, the United States is starting to approach the point where we could just declare victory and stop attacking. At that point it would be up to the Iranians whether they want to keep fighting and continue being pounded, or whether to accept a de-facto cease fire. Meaning that the United States has a big, wide, well-lit off-ramp to avoid being trapped in a forever-war.

That leaves what might be objective #4 - regime change. That one was always a 'nice to achieve if we can get it' kind of deal, rather than a red-line demand. But it would have to be achievable without large numbers of US troops on the ground. (Small special forces incursions to secure/destroy the nuclear sites might be a different proposition... something that might happen in coming days, when Iranian forces are weakened sufficiently.)

But regime change will have to depend on what the Iranian people do. They seem kind of scared right now, after some 30,000 were killed by regime enforcers, enforcers that still remain in their communities. But the regime does seem to be very unpopular with the Iranian people. I guess the hope now is that if we can weaken the government and its enforcers enough, working our way down the organizational chart killing leaders at all levels, if we can crush the military, IRGC and even the Basij if we can get a bead on them, a tipping point might be reached where the balance shifts and the people return to the streets.
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Australian media is reporting that there were two Royal Australian Navy officers embedded in the crew of the American nuclear submarine that torpedoed and sank the Iranian corvette in the Indian Ocean. Australians have started to be embedded in US and British nuclear submarine crews to give Australia experience in nuclear submarine operations before they acquire their first nuclear submarines as part of the AUKUS program.

Actual photo of the Australians on the sub after sinking the Iranian ship

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