Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

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It seems that the newly appointed Supreme Leader of Iran has been a frequent visitor to London where he owns several high end luxury homes, including one very near the Israeli embassy. The one adjacent to the Israeli embassy was purchased in 2014 for 50 million pounds, by a shell company registered on the Isle of Man. The funds are believed to have been sanctioned Iranian oil money.

Intelligence experts suspect that the home might have served as a surveillance station, able to pick up the embassy's wireless networks and similar things.

[Magical Realist]

Footage confirms Americans blew up girls' school in Tehran..

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1830213647685229

[Syne]

That doesn't confirm where the missile came from.

[Magical Realist]

Yes it does. Americans are the only ones using Tomahawk missiles.

"A US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near a primary school in southern Iran where Iranian authorities said 168 people, including around 110 children, were killed, expert video analysis shows.

A video published yesterday by Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, which BBC Verify has confirmed as authentic, shows a missile moments before it struck an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base next to the Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in Minab.

BBC Verify has previously established through satellite imagery, verified videos and expert analysis that the area near the school was hit by a series of strikes.

Experts who have seen this latest video told us the presence of a Tomahawk missile, along with evidence the area was hit with multiple strikes, indicates this was a US operation. Neither Israel nor Iran are known to possess Tomahawks, experts said.

It would also make the scenario of a single Iranian missile hitting the site at the same time and causing such a high reported death toll highly improbable, an expert told BBC Verify."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo

[Yazata]

Iranian photograph of a Shahid Soleimani-class corvette operated by the IRGC navy (administratively separate from the Iranian navy) being blown up by a US laser guided bomb off the Iranian coast in the Persian gulf.

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[Syne]

Yes it does. Americans are the only ones using Tomahawk missiles.

"A US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near a primary school in southern Iran where Iranian authorities said 168 people, including around 110 children, were killed, expert video analysis shows.

A video published yesterday by Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, which BBC Verify has confirmed as authentic, shows a missile moments before it struck an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base next to the Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in Minab.

BBC Verify has previously established through satellite imagery, verified videos and expert analysis that the area near the school was hit by a series of strikes.

Experts who have seen this latest video told us the presence of a Tomahawk missile, along with evidence the area was hit with multiple strikes, indicates this was a US operation. Neither Israel nor Iran are known to possess Tomahawks, experts said.

It would also make the scenario of a single Iranian missile hitting the site at the same time and causing such a high reported death toll highly improbable, an expert told BBC Verify."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo

See where there's only actual evidence of striking an IRGC base? No? Still can't read simple English, huh?

Ans about the geolocation:

Overall, we rate Bellingcat Left-Center biased based on story selection and positions that moderately favor the left. We also rate them Mostly Factual for reporting due to proper sourcing.; however, they have a false claim that resulted in a lawsuit.
- https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bellingcat/

[Yazata]

An Iranian ballistic missile apparently targeting the US Incirlik air base in Turkey was successfully intercepted by a missile that is believed to have been fired by a US Arleigh Burke class destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey isn't happy about its territory being targeted, but I think that the chances of Turkey entering the war are remote. It's more likely that Turkey would act through Azerbijan as a proxy if provoked.

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[Magical Realist]

Can't get around the facts:

"Experts who have seen this latest video told us the presence of a Tomahawk missile, along with evidence the area was hit with multiple strikes, indicates this was a US operation. Neither Israel nor Iran are known to possess Tomahawks, experts said."

[Yazata]

About the girl's school...

I think that it it's very possible that it was blown up by a US cruise missile. Does that mean that the US was targeting the school out of some crazy blood-lust to kill kids? That's almost impossible to believe. Even if the US navy target selection people are as satanic as Iran (and MR) seem to believe that they are, they would surely want to avoid the bad publicity.

I think that what happened is that the school (assuming that's what it was) was relatively new and for some incomprehensible reason was located within the perimeter of an established IRGC base. Perhaps it was intended to serve the children of IRGC personnel or something. The school occupied a building that previously was used by the IRGC for some other purpose.

So I'm inclined to believe that the United States didn't know that the building had (supposedly) been converted into a school. It was targeted as a part of targeting the IRGC base.

Ultimately this whole thing is just a propaganda exercise. What did or didn't happen to the school has no real military impact on eliminating Iran's nuclear or ballistic missile programs. It's all about protecting those programs by media manipulation of domestic public opinion in the United States, where I don't think that it's having the impact that Iran and the American left hoped it might have. It hasn't gained any political traction and there's no powerful anti-war movement rising because of it.

[Syne]

I agree that it very well could have been a US missile that hit the school. Like Yaz says, obviously not an intentional targeting of a school. But I won't call it "verified" on the word of unnamed "experts." That video (again, relying on geolocation from a left-leaning source) could show the admitted strike on the IRGC buildings in that compound.

But assuming the US did hit a school, the IRGC, like Hamas, basically used school children as human shields, perhaps for the express purpose of a PR victory. Considering the only news about who hit the school, the casualties, etc. is coming from Iran regime controlled media, there's no reason to accept that on good faith, as they have every reason to promote propaganda.

But even if true, the collateral damage is dwarfed by a regime that executes tens of thousands of innocent citizens over one protest.