Election Day celebrations and despair thread (political games)

[C C]

And polling...

Most of the polls once again undercounted Trump voters by 2-3 percent, just as they did in 2016 and 2020. Supposedly they had adjusted their samples and models, but this year's polling performance doesn't show it.

The most accurate poll this year was relatively little known Atlas Intel, which predicted that Trump would win the popular vote and sweep all the swing states winning 312 electoral votes. But Atlas Intel was widely dismissed as a minor poll and as an outlier, because it's results didn't match those of the democrat-leaning "quality" polls (which proved to be significantly off).

It wasn't a fluke either, since Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in 2020 too.

Another top performing poll this year was Rasmussen. Despite the fact that Rasmussen had been thrown off the 538 polling average on the grounds that it was too "partisan". (And the New York Times isn't?? Or 538 itself, for that matter?) Rasmussen too was dismissed as an outlier because it didn't conform to the polling consensus.

Rasmussen came within half a point of calling the popular vote, while 538 was off by 5 1/2 points...

Tuesday wasn't a good day for the polling industry, which loves to pretend that they are "scientific" (statistics!) while avoiding the fact that how they weight their samples is all intuition.

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1854544657570492894

https://www.themidwesterner.news/2024/11...-industry/

https://nypost.com/2024/11/03/us-news/he...trump-win/

I gather that Rasmussen Reports goes by "most likely voters" rather than not distinguishing that difference in their polling intake, as many of the rest do. "Newsweek also notes that polls of all adults produce results that are more favorable to Democrats than do polls of likely voters. "

Atlas Intel sounds like the one to remember and pay attention to in the next election.

"Bias toward the Republican Party" probably means that if your system outputs them being ahead more than 33% of the time, then it's politically un-kosher. Akin to RCP with respect to news -- if you provide balance (both sides), then you're automatically labeled a misinformation outlet in this day and age.

[Yazata]

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1855114989830631588

[Image: Gb9v6ofWcAAH1C7?format=jpg&name=small]

[Syne]

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1855114989830631588

Yeah, but all that's just the delayed effects of Biden policies.

[Yazata]

Republicans are now at 217 House seats (one away from a majority) while the Dems are still stuck at 208...

[Yazata]

[Image: GcFBIfjWcAAWsHs?format=jpg&name=small]

[Yazata]

Real Clear Politics currently has the House of Representatives at 219 Republicans and 209 democrats, with several House races still to call. 218 seats are necessary for a majority, so the Republican have indeed held the House and the Speakership. The question now is how large the Republican majority will turn out to be.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/electi...024/house/

[C C]

Real Clear Politics currently has the House of Representatives at 219 Republicans and 209 democrats, with several House races still to call. 218 seats are necessary for a majority, so the Republican have indeed held the House and the Speakership. The question now is how large the Republican majority will turn out to be.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/electi...024/house/

EDIT: Okay, the rest truly are deliberately defective. Gosh, this is a unique time, where just about every accusation or conspiracy people could submit about the mainstream and its bias can be stoutly exposed as valid.

I don't know what RCP is going on (calling some of them ahead of time?). Every other live updater still seems to have them below the 218 mark -- at 215, apparently. Yet, even at the latter, it seems unlikely the Dems could catch up.

[Yazata]

I found out today that my Silicon Valley county went 24% for Trump. That might not sound like a lot, but it was only about 17% in 2020. I'm surprised to learn that as many as 1/4 of us were deplorables. Prior to the election I didn't see any Trump signs or MAGA hats.

[confused2]

Despite deploring all of it .. don't quote me on this .. I am quite looking forward to seeing Clark Kent back at the 'Planet, colonies on Mars and aliens from outer space.

[Yazata]

https://nypost.com/2024/11/20/us-news/el...se-second/