Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Magical Realist]

So you're saying they just never enriched and stockpiled weapons-grade uranium for the 8 years after Trump pulled out of the JCPOA? Bullshit. That makes no sense.

[C C]

These were investigations that pertained to Iran's status in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which long preceded the JCPOA (going back to the 1970s). Earlier investigations took place before JCPOA was instituted.

But below is the NPT related investigation that began the year that the US pulled out of the JCPOA. Since it occurred or extended afterward, it accordingly was not a factor in why JCPOA was dropped by the US.

IAEA Investigations of Iran's Nuclear Activities
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/i...activities

EXCERPT: The IAEA’s second investigation into Iran's past nuclear activities began in 2018 and is focused on evidence suggesting that Iran failed to declare all nuclear materials and activities from its pre-2003 nuclear program as legally required by its safeguards agreement. The investigation does not re-open the military dimensions file [an earlier investigation]: it is focused on Iran's nuclear material accountancy obligations under its safeguards agreements.

As part of this investigation, the IAEA visited three undeclared locations in 2019 and 2020. Environmental samples taken from all three sites indicated that processed uranium had been present at all three locations. Iran has yet to provide the IAEA with technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium at two of those sites, Turquzabad and Varamin. In a May 2023 report, the IAEA said it had no further questions regarding the third site where uranium was detected, Marivan. The IAEA assessed that Iran conducted “explosive experiments with protective shielding in preparation for the use of neutron detectors.” Iran claimed that a third-party state operating a mine and chemical lab at the site contaminated the area with uranium. The IAEA said this was a "possible" explanation.

The IAEA investigated a fourth location, Lavisan-Shian, but said in a May 2022 report that had no more questions regarding past activities at that site. In the May 2022 report, the IAEA assessed that Tehran should have declared the activities related to uranium metal that took place at the site under its legally-required safeguards agreement.

Although this safeguards investigation is separate from the JCPOA and subsequent nuclear negotiations, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said in August 2022 that Iran will not return to compliance with the JCPOA until the IAEA’s investigation is closed. Subsequent statements from Iranian officials suggest Tehran is looking for sanctions relief and/or an agreement with the United States before it will fully resolve these accountancy issues.

The "first" NPT investigation was closed down as a requirement to implement the JCPOA the following year (2016):

The IAEA’s December 2015 report concluded that a “range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device were conducted in Iran prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort, and some activities took place after 2003.” The report further assessed that there were “no credible indications” of activities relevant to weaponization after 2009 or any diversion of nuclear materials for military purposes. The agency indicated in its report that Iran did not fully answer all of the IAEA's questions but provided enough information to address the inquiry. Following the report, the IAEA’s Board of Governors passed a resolution in December 2015 closing the military dimensions investigation. Closure of the investigation was required to implement the JCPOA.

[Syne]

So you're saying they just never enriched and stockpiled weapons-grade uranium for the 8 years after Trump pulled out of the JCPOA? Bullshit. That makes no sense.

I'm saying they wouldn't have been as far along if the JCPOA had mandated full access and Obama/Biden hadn't sent them $1.7 billion to fund it.

[Yazata]

President Trump says:

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The Iranians say:

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Larak island

[Yazata]

[Image: HJM0bfpWwAAlRYf?format=jpg&name=large]

[Magical Realist]

IOW, Trump and his goons are lying about any such "deal". That's what I thought. That's what happens when you surround yourself with yes men who are too scared to speak the truth.

[Syne]

Trump hasn't said that Iran agreed to the deal. Only that Israel and some surrounding Arab countries (which could provide extra pressure on Iran) have.
Please learn to read.

[Magical Realist]

Trump is a liar. He said the deal was "largely negotiated". Nothing on that above chart suggests it's "largely negotiated".

[Syne]

If you read more than what you think affirms your bias, you'd know that it's "largely negotiated" with our regional allies.

[Magical Realist]

You didn't even read that chart did you?