Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Syne]

That's how threats work. They have to be threatening. No, talking about the death of the civilization... of the Iran regime... is not genocide.

9_9

[C C]

The problem here is that Trump seems to be flirting with the very thing he once criticized previous administrations of doing: Revealing their operations, the time/date, and what they were going to attack in advance. Rather than generating surprise and ambiguity and poorer preparation.

If this was all a decoy for actually facilitating something else, then he would still be consistent. But there doesn't seem to be any alternative options for crippling Iran other than what his threats are proposing (power plants, bridges, weapon sites and headquarters concealed by civilian cover, etc). Giving Iran time to set up sky-aimed defenses at those places, and move things and leaders to safer spots, and set-up generators and alternative power sources for whatever few missiles and military affairs and equipment that aren't already independent of the public grid.

[Syne]

The feint is likely an attack on Kharg island. We've already been removing more of its defenses lately. So sure, go ahead and shore up defenses at power plants, bridges, etc..

Let's face it, there's so many targets available that they can't possibly defend them all.

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[stryder]

The problem here is that Trump seems to be flirting with the very thing he once criticized previous administrations of doing: Revealing their operations, the time/date, and what they were going to attack in advance. Rather than generating surprise and ambiguity and poorer preparation.

If this was all a decoy for actually facilitating something else, then he would still be consistent. But there doesn't seem to be any alternative options for crippling Iran other than what his threats are proposing (power plants, bridges, weapon sites and headquarters concealed by civilian cover, etc). Giving Iran time to set up sky-aimed defenses at those places, and move things and leaders to safer spots, and set-up generators and alternative power sources for whatever few missiles and military affairs and equipment that aren't already independent of the public grid.

I'm pretty sure the boombastic approach is to try to insense Iran further and goad them into defensive stances at those locations because currently they've likely kept a majority of their assets hidden hoping they can out wait Trumps attacks before fielding them.

You can only spout how many "wins" you have in minivictories if the environment is target rich enough, otherwise you're just going to have problems defending the level of attack on a bunch of goat herders.

[Magical Realist]

No, talking about the death of the civilization... of the Iran regime... is not genocide.

No..there's nothing remotely the same between surgically bombing a fanatical Muslim regime ruling Iran and the death of the whole Iranian civilization. One is called "regime change" and the other is simply "genocide". Trump, and you apparently, need to invest in a good dictionary, if he ever read anything that is.

[Yazata]

A short time ago the Arak Aluminum company, Iran's largest aluminum producer, was attacked. (Notice that electricity is still operating and the lights are still on.)

[Image: HFVF-STWIAAuQab?format=jpg&name=medium]

[C C]

A short time ago the Arak Aluminum company, Iran's largest aluminum producer, was attacked. (Notice that electricity is still operating and the lights are still on.)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HFVF-STWIAAu...ame=medium

Well, if instead they went after all the manufacturing plants, that impedes the regime's ability to replenish weapons. Lots of worker casualties, though they would eventually notice the pattern and know it is the factories that need to be evacuated.

List of military equipment manufactured in Iran
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mi...ed_in_Iran

In recent years, the Iranian government states that it has self-sufficiency in essential military hardware and defense systems.

[Yazata]

Just hours remain before President Trump's deadline. Reports are that negotiations are going full-blast, facilitated by Pakistan's army chief-of-staff, Asim Munir. The Iranians are clearly scared, but they are defiant too.

Iran had earlier turned down a cease-fire and opening Hormuz, and now it sounds like that's what they want.

While little or no information is leaking out of the negotiations, expectations (perhaps unrealistic) around the world are high that a deal can be reached some time today. There's only a few hours left though, before Trump's bombing campaign against Iranian infrastructure targets is due to start.

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Pakistan's prime minister has reached out to the United States asking for a two-week extension on Trump's deadline on attacking Iranian infrastructure targets. Iran is a master at playing for time like that. The US should say no extension without a cease fire and opening Hormuz.

A problem I see is that Iran's government is disrupted after so many leaders were killed or put out of action. Many lower level people are trying to move up, so there are lots of rivalries and knives are out. So even if the Iranian negotiators agree to a cease fire, they might have little influence over the IRGC and the hard liners might not honor it. It's unclear who, if anyone, is in a position to make decisions for the whole country right now.

[Syne]

US strikes Kharg Island military targets, American official confirms to 'Post'
The strikes included attacks on Kharg Island's air defenses, a US official confirmed to Walla on Tuesday.

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So even if the Iranian negotiators agree to a cease fire, they might have little influence over the IRGC and the hard liners might not honor it. It's unclear who, if anyone, is in a position to make decisions for the whole country right now.

^This.

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No, talking about the death of the civilization... of the Iran regime... is not genocide.

No..there's nothing remotely the same between surgically bombing a fanatical Muslim regime ruling Iran and the death of the whole Iranian civilization. One is called "regime change" and the other is simply "genocide". Trump, and you apparently, need to invest in a good dictionary, if he ever read anything that is.

If you could read... you'd see he didn't say "the whole Iranian civilization."
IOW, it's your strawman.

9_9

[Magical Realist]

US strikes Kharg Island military targets, American official confirms to 'Post'
The strikes included attacks on Kharg Island's air defenses, a US official confirmed to Walla on Tuesday.

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So even if the Iranian negotiators agree to a cease fire, they might have little influence over the IRGC and the hard liners might not honor it. It's unclear who, if anyone, is in a position to make decisions for the whole country right now.

^This.

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No, talking about the death of the civilization... of the Iran regime... is not genocide.

No..there's nothing remotely the same between surgically bombing a fanatical Muslim regime ruling Iran and the death of the whole Iranian civilization. One is called "regime change" and the other is simply "genocide". Trump, and you apparently, need to invest in a good dictionary, if he ever read anything that is.

If you could read... you'd see he didn't say "the whole Iranian civilization."
IOW, it's your strawman.

9_9

He actually said "“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again". That means the whole Iranian civilization dumbass. Which is genocide. Muslim regimes are not "whole civilizations".

"What does civilization mean in a sentence?

Civilization means that a society has a division of labor, a surplus of food, an organized government and religion, and a writing system.

What is a civilization in simple words?

Simply put, a civilization is a society that has defined cultural habits, social structures, and a government that lives and works together.

What is a civilization example?

Examples of civilizations include Mesopotamia, Khmer, Maya, Egyptians, Minoan, and the Inca. These civilizations all had urban areas, a surplus of food, a government and/or religion, and a writing system."

https://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is...ments.html