Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[C C]

[...] Apparently the US believes that it has more or less achieved its objectives for the war... So the President didn't hold back and posted this:

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran," Trump's post read. "There will be nothing like it!!!"

"Open the F----- Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!" read Trump's message to Iran's leaders. "Praise be to Allah."

Israeli media is reporting that Israel is working with the US to draw up a target list of infrastructure (electricity grid, transport and perhaps oil industry) targets. Israel has always taken a hard line on the war (go for a knockout blow) while the US wanted to avoid attacking things that would crash the Iranian economy and make the Iranian people suffer. Throughout the first five weeks of the war, lights have remained on in Iran. They might be about to go out on Tuesday and roads and bridges might be cut as well. That could conceivably cut off water (which sometimes depends on electric pumps) and halt food from reaching markets. [...]

It was always going to be some extreme that Israel wanted at the start, so just get it done already. The show needs to be closed down well before the mid-terms to give the economy a chance to stabilize, and encourage amnesia to incrementally creep in. Do the Republican candidates and incumbents a favor, which includes keeping a hand out of the war and fossil fuel disruption cookie jar for the rest of the year.

Granting that Iran will let the US and Israel quit after this. They may keep lobbing an occasional missile and drone attack at American bases and Israeli cities for months. The new military regime could be crazy or drunk enough on power to not allow the conflict a curtain fall.

You sound more and more like you've been drinking from the horseshoe-right/left antisemitic conspiracy theories.

I agree that it needs to wrap well before the midterms, but I think you give people's memories far too much credit. It could easily go another 2 months, with plenty of time for the economy to kick back up into high gear... especially if my theory about Trump dropping all the tariffs to boost the economy is also correct. If anything, right now, the war is working in Trump's favor for the midterms. If enough of the tariffs couldn't be maintained long enough, the war tamping down the economy does the same job.

The trick is making sure no one has time to think a booming economy is the status quo before the midterms, but enough for Republicans to campaign on it. But even with the war and tariffs, jobs numbers, etc. continue to beat expectations.

And there's only one way to ensure that Iran doesn't continue to be a thorn in the international side, no matter how small. That's to finish the job. An engagement that lasts 2 or 3 months is a small price to pay for more lasting peace and prosperity in the region... which would be historic.

#Background (an Israeli plan that the US was following): David Barnea devised a plan to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran by galvanizing the Iranian opposition after several days of U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassinations, prompting them to riot and rebel against the government, leading to its collapse. [...] According to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, Israel had been planning to strike Iran in mid-2026, however the timetable was moved earlier to February in light of the widespread 2025-2026 Iranian protests which had been ongoing since 28 December 2025 [...] On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched attacks on various Iranian military sites and leaders...

#Lack of uprising (regime change redefined to having been accomplished or was never an objective to begin with): On 20 March, Netanyahu said that "You can't do revolutions from the air" and therefore "There has to be a ground component as well," of which "there are many possibilities," and expressed hope that "the Iranian people will exploit the conditions we are creating for them to take to the streets." Trump meanwhile emphasized that the killing of Iranian leaders was in itself "regime change." [...] Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, downplayed the regime change element, asserting that "our objectives here from the very beginning had nothing to do with the leadership."

Since sufficient ground troops to accomplish an overthrow seems to be where the US is going to draw the line when it comes to listening to Israel...

Trump's April 1st speech echoes Rubio: "Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death. They’re all dead. The new group is less radical and much more reasonable."

But sure, let's get out prematurely, abandon the Iranian people to retaliation, and go right back to the decades-old status quo within a year or two. 9_9

Again, if the next round of "we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard" still somehow does not completely eliminate Iran's urge and capacity to occasionally launch attacks on Israel, US military bases, and refineries in the overall region, then... The desire for extended conflict could well be fulfilled right up to the mid-terms and beyond.