Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

A series of massive explosions shook Tehran this morning. A local resident says, ""There were 4 terrifying bombs, worse than ever before. The sky was perfectly clear, but now you can’t see a thing (zero visibility). I went onto the roof and in just 10 seconds my entire body was covered in white [dust/ash]"

No word yet on what was hit, but just from the amount of material thrown into the air, I'd guess that these were large penetrator bombs (probably American made) meant to root out underground bunkers where the remaining leadership may be operating. Hopefully collateral damage wasn't too great, but probably a lot of people in the general area were killed as well. I'm guessing that this was the Israelis' work, since they are most interested in killing the Iranian leadership in Tehran, while the US concentrates on the nuclear sites, military units and missile and drone industries all over the country.

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Meanwhile, fuel storage at Kuwait's international airport was targeted by Iranian drones and a fire is burning.

A large fire is burning in Bahrain as well, reportedly in an industrial area.

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The Wall Street Journal is reporting

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The WSJ is also reporting that the United Arab Emirates is lobbying for the 'island strategy' that I outlined in an earlier post, in which the US seizes islands near the Strait of Hormuz ... that just coincidentally I'm sure, the UAE claims.

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Something might be happening: President Trump is set to address the nation tonight at 9PM "to provide an important update on Iran".

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But from his remarks today, it isn't clear that President Trump wants to commit American ground troops to open a waterway that's of greatest economic importance to Asia and to a lesser extent Europe.

[Magical Realist]

Iran's President releases an open letter addressed to all Americans. Hmmm...

https://www.facebook.com/reel/4416688118619915

[Syne]

The US didn't destabilize Iran, leading to the ayatollahs.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/3oIQD5bYqJM

[Yazata]

The Iranian city of Karaj, a large place about 20 miles west of Tehran and part of the greater Tehran metropolitan area, came under heavy air attack today. Multiple loud explosions reported. A major target (there's credible talk that it was the US that hit it) was the B-1 bridge across a deep canyon outside Karaj, the largest bridge in Iran.

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Meanwhile, Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel. Site of a missile impact somewhere in central Israel

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Iran state TV (which surprisingly is still on the air) has started describing dissidents as enemy combatants and demonstrations as hostile action. State TV is putting out dire warnings against revealing the location of officials hiding among the civilian population. (I'm noting a hint of desperation, perhaps.) While the Iranian people appear to be afraid to confront the armed Basij and IRGC in the streets, I'd be willing to bet that the CIA is busily cultivating networks of informants among the Iranian dissidents and the Israeli Mossad is likely doing the same.

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Bahrain has proposed a resolution in the UN Security Council authorizing the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It's due to be voted on Friday, but China and/or Russia is expected to veto it. France may or may not vote against it too.

[Yazata]

Airstrike at the west Tehran airport. Reportedly what was hit was a helicopter repair facility.

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The control tower at the Tabriz airport in northwest Iran

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Iranian missile hitting the Israeli city of Petah Tikva last night. (It's adjacent to Tel Aviv.) It landed in an open area near some big-box warehouse style buildings, which appeared to have received little or no damage.

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And in Tehran, the former US embassy (of Iran hostage crisis fame) that was since turned into the headquarters of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" (Iran and its proxies) was blown up.

[Yazata]

Big news today is that a US Air Force F-15E fighter jet has been shot down over Iran. This is the first US aircraft shot down over Iran, after a month and thousands of sorties. It remains unclear what kind of Iranian weapon struck the plane.

There were two crew members on the plane and both ejected. Combat search and rescue helicopters were immediately dispatched into Iran to find and recover the crew. They successfully found and rescued the pilot, but the weapons system officer ('wizzo' in air force speak) is still unaccounted for and the search continues.

A bit of good news is that this occurred over Iran's Khuzestan province, in the southwest corner of the country near Kuwait. So combat search and rescue hasn't had to penetrate very deep into Iran. But it's still an extraordinarily dangerous job performed by the special operations people.

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Initial word that a US UH-60G 'Pave Hawk' helicopter was struck by ground fire while searching for the second crew member. Nobody aboard was injured and it made it safely out of Iran. Video has come out of Iran showing a C-130 refueling two Pave Hawks over Iran. That's what the probe in the front of these specially modified helicopters is for, it plugs into a drogue trailed by the C-130 for probe-and-drogue refueling.

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The Iranians have soldiers in the area searching and reportedly have offered a reward for capture of the wizzo. Which is good news in a way, since it indicates that they haven't captured him yet.

Video has emerged from Iran showing police officers/basij firing rifles into the air at several American helicopters passing overhead one at a time. This kind of fire might be what punctured the helicopter referred to up above.

[Yazata]

Photos released by Iranian state TV of the tail markings of the fragmentary wreckage of the shot-down F-15 indicate that it was one of the F-15's from the 494th Fighter Squadron "LN" normally based at RAF Lakenheath in England.

[Yazata]

A drone has struck the oil ministry building in Kuwait and it's on fire

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[Zinjanthropos]

A drone has struck the oil ministry building in Kuwait and it's on fire

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That building looks like an old cigarette lighter.

[Yazata]

Heavy Search and Rescue activity in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province Iran. It's night there and there apparently are lots of helicopters and jets in the air.

Extremely unconfirmed reports on the internet that the missing American airman has been located and some kind of operation is underway to get him out. It may or may not be true.

There's speculation that he might be hard to find because local Iranians are hiding him. The regime is very unpopular in that area and there were massacres there during the recent uprising. Unfortunately, it's crawling with IRGC precisely for that reason. That's just speculation though.

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Still nothing from the US military or government, but lots of unconfirmed stuff on X that may or may not be true, including video from out of Iran. Reports that the missing American was indeed being aided by the locals in the city of Dehdasht. (Population ~57,000) The IRGC was closing in and crowds of hundreds of locals went into the street and blocked the approaching IRGC vehicles. Video shows American helicopters overhead, illumination flares lighting up the ground and the sound of jet engines up above. Some reports are saying that US Special Operations soldiers got into an intense battle with the IRGC. Unclear if any of this is true, or if it is, whether all the Americans were able to get out safely. (If it is true, the US government might not want to say anything until all of our personnel are out of Iran.)

If it does turn out to be true, it could be made into a movie.