Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Syne]

Yeah, any foreign national could be intent on harming America.

The US has deported people to willing third countries, but I think that's only legal when their home country refuses to accept them.

[Zinjanthropos]

Yeah, any foreign national could be intent on harming America.

The US has deported people to willing third countries, but I think that's only legal when their home country refuses to accept them.

No verified reports of weapons grade uranium smuggled into USA by Somalis. However I saw an article from 2017 that said the Somali Militant group al-Shebaab had in their possession surface exposed uranium deposits that they were transporting to Iran. I dunno, makes one wonder if it’s goes to Iran, is it here in NA? Anyways if the ICE operation in Minny is a smoke screen for obtaining pertinent information from suspected al-Shebaab members or entire community re nuclear, it might make govt and its agents a bit jittery.

Seems these federal agents have a licence to kill. Just how important is the Somali operation? Just feel there is more to it than meets the eye. All this for illegal immigrants?

[Syne]

It's a leftist conspiracy theory that the ICE operations in Minnesota are a cover for other activities, distractions, or pressure campaign.

[Yazata]

The flow of American military assets into the Middle East has picked up again after being slowed by winter weather here in the US.

Six F-35A's from the USAF 158th Fighter Wing have been photographed by Portuguese plane spotters landing at Lajes field in the Azores, headed east. They were accompanied by a reported two KC 46A aerial refueling tankers along with a KC 135, all of them flying out of Roosevelt Roads Puerto Rico.

Four KC 46A aerial refueling tankers left Homestead AFB in Florida, headed east. They were joined by a single KC-135R tanker flying out of Roosevelt Roads naval station in Puerto Rico. They were probably "dragging" unidentified combat aircraft across the Atlantic as well.

Nine C-17's have departed from Robert Gray Army Airfield at Ft. Hood Texas, believed to be carrying anti-aircraft/anti-missile batteries, headed east.

Another four KC-46A tanker aircraft departed from Pease ANGB in New Hampshire accompanied by six EA-18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft, headed east.

An RC 135 Rivet Joint electronic intelligence aircraft is said to have deployed. And...

Significantly, a combat search and rescue unit has deployed, tasked with rescuing downed airmen. This is the 71st Rescue Squadron flying the HC-130J Combat King II out of Moody AFB in Georgia.

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Israeli media (IsraelHayom) is reporting that intelligence agencies in the US, UK, France and Israel, assisted by three unnamed Gulf Arab countries, are working on a target list for the Americans to hit in Iran. IsraelHayom notes that some of the Gulf Arabs publicly oppose an American strike, while privately they are helping to plan it.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/01/30/u...el-allies/

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Iran is getting jumpy and anxious.

Publicly they are talking tough, saying that even if the US only launches a small token attack, they will launch full retaliation directed not only against US bases in the region, but also against Israel. Privately, they seem to be asking for talks, provided that they are guaranteed no attacks while the talks are underway.

An Iranian airliner operated on behalf of the government and used to carry high ranking officials has left Tehran and is making its way towards Moscow. Unknown who is on it or why.

Tehran has announced that subway stations and underground car parks will be designated bomb shelters in the event of an attack.

And just in the last few minutes, loud detonation sounds were heard and flashes of light were seen in Tehran. Turns out it was just an exercise that had been announced beforehand.

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2017011402599195065

[Syne]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/nx14l7kyR6M

[Yazata]

The American Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Delbert Black passed southwards through the Suez canal a day or two ago, and turned up in the Gulf of Aqaba today, anchored off the small Israeli port of Eilat, at the far southern tip of Israel. This warship carries the highly capable Aegis radar/fire control system and is able to launch surface-to-air missiles able to engage missiles and drones. So I'm assuming that the ship is there to provide air defense support to southern Israel.

The USS Delbert Black off Eilat today

[Image: G_5kqTRWIAA_C1P?format=jpg&name=small]

[Yazata]

CENTCOM says:

"TAMPA, Fla. – Yesterday, Iran announced that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is conducting a two-day live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz scheduled to begin on Sunday.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) urges the IRGC to conduct the announced naval exercise in a manner that is safe, professional and avoids unnecessary risk to freedom of navigation for international maritime traffic. The Strait of Hormuz is an international sea passage and an essential trade corridor that supports regional economic prosperity. On any given day, roughly 100 of the world’s merchant vessels transit the narrow strait.

U.S. forces acknowledge Iran’s right to operate professionally in international airspace and waters. Any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near U.S. forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization.

CENTCOM will ensure the safety of U.S. personnel, ships, and aircraft operating in the Middle East. We will not tolerate unsafe IRGC actions including overflight of U.S. military vessels engaged in flight operations, low-altitude or armed overflight of U.S. military assets when intentions are unclear, highspeed boat approaches on a collision course with U.S. military vessels, or weapons trained at U.S. forces.

The U.S. military has the most highly trained and lethal force in the world and will continue to operate with the highest levels of professionalism and adhere to international norms. Iran’s IRGC must do the same."

[Zinjanthropos]

Is there a danger should the regime fall? Will the Islamic Guard, surrender and lay down their arms if that happens? I figure no way in hell and there’s a good possibility of the Guard inflicting thousands of civilian casualties.

[Syne]

They've already inflicted thousands of civilian casualties. They do every time the people try to protest too vigorously.

[Zinjanthropos]

They've already inflicted thousands of civilian casualties. They do every time the people try to protest too vigorously.

Just don’t think Guard stops if they’re attacked and regime ousted. They would be easy to track, just follow the corpse trail. One of the decisions Trump might have to make. It’s a tough one….how many civilian casualties is it going to take? Price for freedom usually results in a big body count but that’s the way it is unfortunately.