Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

There now appear to be 35 USAF F-15E's at Muwaffaq Air Base in Jordan. C-17's continue to fly back and forth between Ramstein and RAF Lakenheath and the Middle East. (Just today 4 to Muwaffaq and one interesting one from Balad Air Base in Iraq to Al Salem AB in Kuwait, and then back to Ramstein. And there are 3 MQ-4C long-range naval surveillance drones at Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi UAE. There are rumors that the United States is moving Patriot and THAAD anti-aircraft/missile batteries to the region.

In addition to 3 tankers accompanying President Trump in Air Force One to Davos, an additional 11 KC-135R aerial refueling tankers left California and Maine today headed east towards Europe.

Today's aircraft movements/locations

[Image: G_F6CxDXkAA1HoI?format=png&name=large]

[Yazata]

Lots of internet talk tonight, perhaps plausible, perhaps not, that an attack on Iran might be just hours away.

The British Ministry of Defense confirms that No. 12 Squadron RAF has deployed to the Middle East. This consists of four Eurofighter Typhoon's to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, four more in Saudi Arabia and three at RAF Akrotiri, a British base in Cyprus, for a total of 11. There's also a British aerial refueling tanker at Akrotiri.

Iran has gone on alert and is threatening all-out war if attacked.

The Commander of the US Central Command is in Israel, though officially the visit has nothing to do with Iran. Israel is on alert.

The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has reportedly entered the Arabian Sea.

British Airways, KLM, Lufthansa and Air France have all canceled flights to the entire Middle East. There are reports that some of those airlines are evacuating their employees from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. They evidently have heard the rumors and are heeding them.

In addition to the 35 F-15E's at Muwaffaq in Jordan, there are reportedly an unknown number of A-10's there too.

There's a squadron of American F-16's in Saudi Arabia at some undisclosed location.

There are US KC-135 aerial refueling tankers at Moron Air Base in Spain, speculatively rumored to serve as a refueling point for possible B-1, B-2 or B-52 strategic bomber attacks launched from the United States.

(People often say that 1950's era B-52 is outdated. Its saving grace is its massive payload. That's why the US Air force keeps them around and has no plans to retire them any time soon. Each B-52 can carry approximately 20 air launched cruise missiles. So just 5 B-52's can unleash 100 precision-guided stand-off weapons with large warheads. It's true that the B-52 is slow and presents a huge radar target, but it can also launch a devastating strike from safely outside enemy airspace.)

[Yazata]

Well, the rumored attack on Iran didn't happen this weekend. Talk now is that if it comes, it might come next weekend. (Talk again is that weekends are preferred, since markets will be closed and economic impacts reduced.)

Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has reached its station in the Indian Ocean south of Iran. More aircraft movements from the United States are expected, particularly more 5th generation stealth aircraft and more anti-aircraft and anti-missile batteries.

[Image: G_jwyn_bcAAxbFo?format=jpg&name=small]

[Yazata]

According to the "senior defense reporter" of Israeli channel 14 (unclear how reliable this is, since Israeli news media are as bad as here in the United States):

Summary of the meeting between CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper and senior IDF officials:

-- No date for an attack on Iran
-- The Americans will need time to build up significant force
-- US also for an immediate strike if necessary
-- The Americans want a clean, swift, and inexpensive operation
-- The objective - focus on those who harmed civilians and protesters
-- Ready to replace the regime in Iran

Defense Geek says:

Looks like sometime this week then...

In the 24hrs up to the start of ops, I expect we'll see:
- Tankers moving more fast-jets into the region (maybe F-35A from RAF Lakenheath)
- Any remaining C-17s in the ME moving out to Ramstein/Chania
- Tanker moves on US East Coast

I'll add that I'd expect to see AWACS and electronic warfare aircraft arriving as well.

Here's Defense Geek's current (as of Sunday 25th) order of battle graphic:

Note that there's a very formidable American fighter force at RAF Lakenheath in England. 35 F-15E and 54 F-35A 5th generation stealth fighters. I would expect to see these move forward prior to any attack on Iran. British plane spotters will probably report any large-scale departure of these jets.

[Image: G_hyCANWAAEggIN?format=jpg&name=medium]

[Syne]

[Image: 621419985_17930503770179051_793561077076...e=697E0D72]

[Zinjanthropos]

[Image: 621419985_17930503770179051_793561077076...e=697E0D72]

Where was that pic taken? Are those American protesters?

Will ICE be guilty of murder if deportees executed in Iran?

https://reason.com/2026/01/23/the-trump-...n-in-iran/

[Yazata]

[Image: 621419985_17930503770179051_793561077076...e=697E0D72]

Where was that pic taken?  Are those American protesters?

I'd guess that it's a demonstration in the US or Europe, where lots of exiled Iranians live. It could even be Canada.

My question is 'Who is she addressing?' Who is supposedly staying silent?

So we can be fairly certain that the sign and the sentiment it expresses are directed at the United States. The country that the rest of the world loves to hate, condemn and feel superior to... except when they need help. Then it's 'Where are the Americans??'

Israel might fight alongside us, not because they care all that much about the Iranian people, but because they (correctly) see Iran as an existential military threat to themselves. Their emphasis will be on taking down the Iranian ballistic missile program.

The US is more interested in going after the Iranian leadership and the IRGC/Basij, I think. But the latter will be very hard to eliminate on the local level, even if we decapitate the theological leadership. So what happens if the central government is weakened/eliminated, but the repressive apparatus remains on the street level?

Iran is a large country and it could become a huge power vacuum and anarchical failed state. The anti-regime demonstrators in Tehran and some other places might try to set up a new government, but would they be able to extend their power nationwide to places where the IRGC remnants and Islamist fanatics still hold power? I can see pressure growing on the United States to commit 'boots on the ground' to help establish a new regime's authority. Which might get us stuck in another endless Middle East civil war like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And it could get a lot worse than that. There were rumors that Iran had enough fissionable material for perhaps a dozen low-yield atomic bombs that they removed from their enrichment plants before the US hit them. If they have already been turned into bombs and if whatever remains of the Iranian regime is out for revenge, things could get very dangerous. A nuclear armed failed state would be something new for the world to contend with. I wouldn't want to live in Tel Aviv, London or New York in that case.

[Syne]

Where was that pic taken? Are those American protesters?

The FB post didn't say.

[C C]

Where was that pic taken? Are those American protesters?

There were signs like "They kill us in your silence" back in 2022 during the Mahsa Amini global protests.

https://retriever.umbc.edu/2022/10/woman...-iranians/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/m...e/14065354

Will ICE be guilty of murder if deportees executed in Iran?

https://reason.com/2026/01/23/the-trump-...n-in-iran/

Thanks to measles, the gay couple missed that flight.

Trump admin deports Iranians for first time since brutal crackdown on protests
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/26/politics/...s-iranians

EXCERPTS: The Trump administration sent about a dozen Iranians back on a deportation flight Sunday, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.

[...] CNN reported Friday that dozens of Iranians were expected to be deported as soon as Sunday. However, it appears a number of Iranians who were told that they would be on the flight were not on it because of measles exposure.

[....] At least two of the Iranians slated for deportation, who were not on Sunday’s flight, claim they’re gay, so they fear execution if sent home.

[...] Bekah Wolf, the lawyer for two Iranians who had been told they would be on board the flight, said her clients had been put into quarantine because of the highly infectious virus and were not on Sunday’s flight.

However, it is only a temporary reprieve for the two men, who are gay and face “an extremely high chance” of being executed if they are forced to return to Iran, Wolf told CNN on Friday.

[Zinjanthropos]

If you don’t wish to be deported to Iran then claim exposure to pathogens/diseases. Loopholes are interesting, can’t think of everything. Don’t think being gay works other than getting a sympathetic judge who won’t send you to face having a grenade taped to your head.

Yaz mentioned in another post that there might be enuf fissionable material in Iran to develop a dirty bomb or worse. Is there a group of people who will smuggle nuclear weapons into USA? Iranian nationals too obvious but how about the Somali’s? Could the Somali shakedown in Minny actually be a disguised search for trafficked components and material to build a nuke? Or perhaps suspected smugglers?