A huge (100,000+) anti-regime demonstration is occurring in Isfahan in central Iran this evening local time. There are reports that the regime has replied with gunfire and that Isfahan is a battle zone.
ISW (which has informal connections to the Pentagon and intelligence agencies) is reporting that Iran has asked for aid from Iranian-armed Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq. ISW interprets this to indicate that the demonstrations in Iran are stretching regime manpower thin. As yet, there's no indication that the regular military has been called upon, perhaps because their loyalty to the regime is questionable. The demonstrations are being confronted by the 'Law Enforcement Command' (national police), Basij (the large IRGC-affiliated religious militia that arrest women for not wearing hijabs) and the real regime muscle, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (an alternative military force of regime fanatics). But the three of them combined are apparently in need of backup.
Meanwhile the regime has called for a pro-regime demonstration in Tehran. They claim turnout was 100,000+, but the video they displayed turned out to be old video from several years ago.
The Iranian regime has started calling the demonstrators "terrorists" and says that these demonstrations are organized from abroad and that they are the latest chapter in the "12 Day War" against Iran by the US and Israel. ISW interprets this to be an attempt to gain patriotic support in the regular military, where there seems to be quite a bit of sympathy in the ranks for the demonstrators.
As for the United States, word is that planning for military action is "advanced". But this consists of a spectrum of options and reportedly President Trump has not made a decision which one to go with. Evidence supports this, since there is no clear evidence of military movements consistent with a military intervention plan. US military facilities in the middle east are reportedly going into a defensive posture in case Iran lobs missiles at them or something.,
And the Wall Street Journal is reporting that there are deep divisions inside the Trump administration between those that favor diplomacy and those that favor military action. (Neo-Con vs America First factions of MAGA?)
That said, the Trump administration has proven repeatedly (the 12 day war, the Maduro operation) to be very good at operational security and deception. So they may already have a plan underway and are putting out misleading information as "leaks" to establishment journalists (who live on "sources" and leaks) who lap it up and write what the Administration might want Iran to think.
Though again, I think that the real 'tell', difficult to hide or fake, would be actual military movements, which we haven't seen.
(Jan 12, 2026 10:58 PM)Yazata Wrote: And the Wall Street Journal is reporting that there are deep divisions inside the Trump administration between those that favor diplomacy and those that favor military action. (Neo-Con vs America First factions of MAGA?)
CNN is reporting that the Democrats are just as divided on this as the Republicans.
There's a pro-intervention faction and a 'let the Iranians sort it out for themselves' faction in the US, and it doesn't divide up according to party loyalty.
Jan 12, 2026 05:17 AM
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