Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

Reports that the IRGC is searching for Starlink terminal emissions and have announced that possession of a Starlink terminal is a national security threat. With cell networks shut down, a functioning Starlink antenna is like a homing beacon.

[Zinjanthropos]

Ironic how the Iranian government can funnel guns, rockets, and explosives to any terrorist group in the Middle East that needs them. But Iranian citizens can't get squat in that department.

It's why the United States has the Second Amendment.

The government monopoly on firearms guarantees that the people can't effectively rise up against the regime, even if 90% oppose it.

Opportunity knocks! What if Trump dropped weapons instead of bombs?

[Syne]

Opportunity knocks! What if Trump dropped weapons instead of bombs?

Considering Iranian citizens have been disarmed since 1979, it would be unlikely they would be proficient in their use.

[stryder]

Opportunity knocks! What if Trump dropped weapons instead of bombs?

Considering Iranian citizens have been disarmed since 1979, it would be unlikely they would be proficient in their use.

Considering guns were designed for stupid people to use (Quick to use and become familiar with so as to reduce training times when dealing with conscription and war), I doubt proficiency would be that much of an issue, especially if it's superior numbers.

People power requires a bit more than just brute force and ignorance. The chaos of protests could be used to move things into position, however the likelihood is if/when the protests run out of steam (from the number dead, dying or arrested) the regime would likely strike back hard rounding up people. Thats when any resistance systems would need to be activated, as you are no longer just looters and ruffians attacking people, you're defending people from the harsh response of a regime.

With the right leadership that builds to be an actual proper resistance and chance of leadership change if it proves to be effective.

[Syne]

Opportunity knocks! What if Trump dropped weapons instead of bombs?

Considering Iranian citizens have been disarmed since 1979, it would be unlikely they would be proficient in their use.

Considering guns were designed for stupid people to use (Quick to use and become familiar with so as to reduce training times when dealing with conscription and war), I doubt proficiency would be that much of an issue, especially if it's superior numbers. 

Apparently you've never handled a gun. There's a reason you have to be taught/train the manual of arms for specific weapons.
Proficiency in firearms is a force multiplier, where a smaller number of proficient fighters can readily take on magnitudes greater numbers on inept ones.

[Yazata]

Israeli media are reporting conversations between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding joint US-Israeli action against Iran to include military strikes, employment of secret cyber weapons, increased sanctions and aid for anti-regime elements inside Iran. Unfortunately, not enough American military assets are currently deployed to the area to make a large intervention work.

(Edit Source: the Jerusalem Post. They say that President Trump has already decided to help the Iranians, but not yet how or when. His military people have presented a range of options. So Israeli input is being sought.)

So it still doesn't sound like anything will be happening in the immediate future, perhaps not for weeks. So the Iranian protests will probably be silenced by regime gunfire before whatever happens, happens. Hospitals all over Iran are already overflowing with dead. The Iranian people can't keep it up indefinitely.

But even if the Iranian Revolutionary Guards can suppress the demonstrations for now, popular anger and hostility against the regime won't go away. So if/when the US acts, the Iranian people will probably be back on the streets again.

[C C]

Israeli media are reporting conversations between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding joint US-Israeli action against Iran to include military strikes, employment of secret cyber weapons, increased sanctions and aid for anti-regime elements inside Iran.

But it still doesn't sound like anything will be happening in the immediate future, so the Iranian protests will probably be silenced by regime gunfire before it happens. Hospitals all over Iran are already overflowing with dead.

Yep, opportunity missed. Just jot it down as another rerun fail, as the title suggests. (Much ado about nothing, again, apart from the tragic body count.)

[Syne]

Well, if the US does nothing, Trump has squandered his "will do what he says" reputation that he established in the Iran nuclear strike and taking Maduro.

[Yazata]

Yep, opportunity missed. Just jot it down as another rerun fail, as the title suggests. (Much ado about nothing, again, apart from the tragic body count.)

Well, if the US does nothing, Trump has squandered his "will do what he says" reputation that he established in the Iran nuclear strike and taking Maduro.

I don't think that the US will do nothing. But it will take weeks to get into position to do whatever something is being contemplated. And that will give the Iranian Revolutionary Guards plenty of time to massacre people in the streets. So these massive Iranian street demonstrations will probably sputter out before the US can aid them in toppling the Iranian regime.

But shooting everyone so that people are afraid to turn out won't make those people love the regime that did it to them. Opposition to the regime will continue to boil even hotter under the surface. So when/if the United States (and Israel and...?) acts, the people will be ready and willing to rise up again.

---

Reports say that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have deployed military jammers to jam Starlink transmission and currently about 80% of Starlink upload and download traffic to and from Iran is disrupted.

[Yazata]

It looks like Iran is getting scared.

President Trump said this to reporters on Air Force One:

"Iran called to restart nuclear talks, but I don't know if we can wait.

Maybe we'll meet with them.

Iran wants to negotiate. I mean a meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening."

If I was President Trump, I'd tell Iran that any meeting is conditional on them no longer shooting demonstrators, ending the communications blackout etc. And I'd order very visible preparations for military intervention such as moving an aircraft carrier battle group (or two) into the northwest Indian Ocean and large quantities of Air Force aircraft into the region. Make sure that the Iranians can see it coming. Tell Tehran that if they shoot pro-democracy demonstrators, the Americans (and Israelis and who knows else) will be unleashed against any and all regime government and military assets. Meanwhile provide what assistance we can to the pro-democracy elements, like Starlink terminals and so on. Maybe arms as well. (If Iran can arm Hezbollah in Lebanon, we can arm anti-regime elements in Iran.)