Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Zinjanthropos]

Agree on a time period then take all the Jews in Israel, trade them for all the Muslims in UK and some (or all?) Muslims in America. .Straight swap. Only talking 7.5m people per side. Maybe level Jerusalem as a parting gift. Let the ME kill each other for as many centuries as they want….

Then I woke up, Always dream before I do.

[Syne]

Yeah, we don't want to play this game where Iran lets it's own tankers through, likely bound for China, or gets to fund itself extorting shipping companies with exorbitant tolls.

A while back the mission objective was to stop Iran from making a nuclear bomb. A suggestion at the time was to bomb any facility that looked like it might be used for making nuclear weapons .. aka  'mowing the grass' - this had the benefit of being a contained military response to a perceived military threat. And now Trump wants to stop Iranian oil from reaching China - does this make any sense or is this just mission creep caused by Trump wanting to show "I am the greatest and I can do anything I want"?

The expressed goal is to defund the regime, which facilitates every goal of the operation, not deprive China. China not getting oil is just a geopolitical bonus, especially when, if they were stronger at the moment, they might be tempted to take Taiwan.

[confused2]

Any odds on whether Trump will start WWIII before he leaves office?

[Syne]

Any odds on whether Trump will start WWIII before he leaves office?

Rational, knowledgeable people know his moves are actually staving off any larger conflict.
Peace through strength. If Biden were still in office, China would have already moved to attack Taiwan, Iran would have had and used a nuclear weapon, Hamas would still fully control Gaza, etc..

Any odds on whether Starmer ever finds a pair?

[Yazata]

JD Vance’s final offer to Iran in Islamabad included strict red lines, according to U.S. officials:

•End all uranium enrichment
•Dismantle major nuclear facilities
•Hand over highly enriched uranium
•Accept a broader regional security framework
•End funding for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
•Fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls

I'll comment that we are already well on our way to achieving several of those, whether the Iranians agree or not.

We have already badly damaged their nuclear program, including uranium enrichment. It remains unclear how quickly they could reconstitute it, especially if they had to do that while avoiding the unblinking stare of American spy satellites. They seem to be in little position to fund or otherwise support their proxies right now. The US is well on its way to taking over control of the Strait of Hormuz, and thereby choking off Iran's vital oil exports, particularly to China.

[Yazata]

I'm hearing talk that as many as 100 supertankers that otherwise would have gone to the Persian Gulf are heading to the Gulf of America instead, to fill up with Texas crude.

[confused2]

And so it begins..
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/s...-1-1973360

Published 14 April 2026, 07:12
A sanctioned Chinese tanker has defied the US blockade to exit the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
Tracking data from MarineTraffic, LSEG and Kpler showed the 35,400-dwt Rich Starry (built 2015) as the first vessel to leave the Middle East Gulf since the US military’s action began against Iranian-linked ships on Monday.