Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[confused2]

I suspect Israel were very pleased to be able to blow up parts of Lebanon under US protection - I don't think they'd have stopped (if they have) unless Trump forced them to. Getting the dogs of war back on a leash is a minimum requirement for a lasting peace.

[Syne]

I suspect Israel were very pleased to be able to blow up parts of Lebanon under US protection - I don't think they'd have stopped (if they have) unless Trump forced them to. Getting the dogs of war back on a leash is a minimum requirement for a lasting peace.

Not Lebanon, Hezbollah (which began as Palestinian refugees from Jordan), which the Lebanese government want removed (and why other Muslim countries don't accept refugees). The US was not protecting Israel from Hezbollah in Lebanon, as Hezbollah had already lost support/rearming from Iran, who had their own problems. Lebanon and Israel hadn't had official talks in decades, but Trump helped bring them together.

So you either have to credit Trump or Israel. Personally, I credit both, as I don't think Lebanon would have come to the table without Israel proving it could and would handle their Hezbollah problem for them.

[Syne]

Transcript @19:34
"The Council of Peace proves a new model, shared responsibility. By the way, I haven't had a chance to tell you about what's happening with Lebanon on Lebanese television. Today, for the first time, there is a Lebanon flag and an Israeli flag behind the anchor. And Israel is now telling Fox News this morning that the the negotiations that are going not only for peace, but they may end in the Abraham Accords. You get them into the Abraham Accords, all bets are off, everything changes."
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cE3eI-_UNk

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[Yazata]

Things aren't going all that well on the Iran diplomatic front.

It appears that what Pakistan says the Iranians are telling them isn't consistent both with what Iranian media is saying publicly and with what Iran is actually doing in the Strait of Hormuz.

On one hand, President Trump was told that the Iranians were willing to allow free transit on the Strait of Hormuz, were willing to hand over their enriched uranium, and were willing to halt support for Hezbollah and the Houthis. Which made it sound possible that a peace agreement could be signed this weekend in Islamabad Pakistan.

But the Iranian state broadcaster says that none of that is true, and the speaker of the Iranian parliament (a man with close IRGC connections) agrees it's false.

Iran was continuing to insist that ships wishing to enter or leave the Persian gulf need to pay a toll to Iran and get IRGC permission to pass. And today the Indian crude oil tanker M/T Sanmar Herald was fired on by the IRGC as it attempted to proceed east through the Strait of Hormuz, despite having paid the toll and having permission to pass.

Unknown what damage, if any, the Sanmar Herald suffered. Apparently the IRGC approached the tanker in three small civilian-style speedboats carrying men with small arms. (That kind of makeshift maritime force would stand no chance against the US Navy.) (Update The Sanmar Herald turned around and didn't attempt to pass through the Strait. It reports no injuries among its crew.)

And the IRGC has just announced that they are enforcing a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and will no longer be issuing permission to pass and that any vessel that attempts to pass through the Strait will be treated as hostile.

I'm getting the impression that since the (Israeli?) decapitation strikes early in the war, the Iranian government is disorganized. There are apparently moderates in the Iranian diplomatic apparatus that want very badly to reach a deal with the US and are willing to make concessions to do it. But it's the IRGC hard-liners who are actually in command in Iran (and not the government ministries or the Islamic clerics). And it remains unknown what the regular Iranian military thinks or what their role is in all this. With the destruction of the Iranian air force and navy, and heavy damage to many army bases, they are quiet right now.

For his part, President Trump who was very upbeat yesterday (Friday) predicting a quick end to the war, is holding a meeting in the White House situation room this morning (Saturday). While nothing official has emerged from that meeting, rumor is that unless Iran cooperates, the current ceasefire will end (it's due to expire Tuesday April 21) and the war will resume.

Unknown what that will look like. There are lots of options.

The US could attack electricity and transport and basically reduce Iran to a medieval-style subsistence economy without effective communications between IRGC commanders and their men. That strategy would cause great hardship to Iranian civilians.

The US could simply continue to blockade the Iranian coast and start convoys through the Strait protected by US and allied warships. (By allied I don't mean Europe, who are kind of useless, but rather the Saudis and Emiratis). While a few small speedboats don't present much of a threat, drones might, if Iran launches enough of them at once. Of course if Iran is launching hundreds at once, the US could locate where they are stored and hit those locations with airstrikes and/or quick in-and-out raids by Marines.

Or if the CIA thinks there is enough moderate sentiment in the regular military, they might try to pry the military apart from the IRGC and set them against each other. Hard to say.

[Syne]

Not really surprised. No one was sure if who was negotiating had any control within Iran, and we've yet to find a good faith negotiating partner. So whether they're lying about a deal or lying about their status in Iran, it still comes down to the Iran regime persistently lying.

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[Yazata]

This guy is Vahid Shahcheraghi, who goes by the nom de guerre Ahmad Vahidi. He's the current commander of the IRGC and de-facto dictator of Iran. The men in suits at the foreign ministry and the negotiators they send out aren't in position to actually make decisions, and neither are the ayatollahs or the country's ostensible president. While the officials and the clerics do have influence, the IRGC is in command and officials' actual clout apparently is a function of how close they are to the revolutionary guards.

The US and Iran aren't going to reach any deal soon, unless it's with these guys.

And the hard-liners apparently want more war. Former Iranian Deputy FM Mohammad-Javad Larijani said on Iranian TV "The American blockade is piracy, and Iranians don't let pirates off. The Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control. This will not change. Nuclear talks with the U.S. are a big mistake."

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Now that talks appear to have broken down, there are lots of (unsubstantiated) rumors in Iran that the IRGC and regular military have been put on alert in anticipation of some kind of American ground incursion. I find the US doing that implausible, but that's the talk.

CENTCOM did post some photos of US Marines practicing their skills on landing ships off the Iranian coast, but I don't believe that their mission will be to invade Iran. Rather, America seems to be readying to actually board and seize any Iranian ships that leave their harbors or are carrying Iranian cargoes on the high seas. No more orders to turn around. Iranian supertankers will become US property and we will sell the oil they contain and keep the money.

[Syne]

April 18 (Reuters) - A French soldier was killed and three others wounded while clearing a road in southern Lebanon in an attack that UNIFIL peacekeepers and French officials said on Saturday was likely carried out by ​Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-eas...026-04-18/

[Yazata]

In Lebanon, the ceasefire still seems to be holding, more or less. But Hezbollah is talking tough. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem says, "We will stay on the battlefield until our last breath, never surrender. We will capture enemy soldiers. Northern Israeli towns will never be safe."

But Hezbollah seems to wearing out its welcome with the legitimate Lebanese government (whose army is outgunned by Iranian armed Hezbollah). Lebanese President Joseph Aoun delivered a nationwide address on Lebanese TV, seemingly issuing a message directed at Hezbollah without naming it: "To those who gamble with Lebanon's fate and the lives of its citizens, I say, enough!"

These men's names kind of give it away: Naim Qassem is a highly radicalized Lebanese Shi'ite, as anti-Israel as they come and a very willing Iranian proxy. While Joseph Aoun is a Lebanese Christian, more Westernized and much more apt to see Israel as a natural ally. If the Lebanese Christians (a minority inside Lebanon) had their way, they would be in the Abraham accords in a heartbeat.

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And now for something kind of scary... It's probably nothing... but...

President Trump posted a video clip of Frank Sinatra singing: "I did it my way.”

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2045724852468785343

And unusual code-group traffic is being broadcast by the US Navy E-6B TACAMO "Doomsday planes":

https://x.com/neetintel/status/2045723639140540520

The unusual code groups might just be an exercise or a test (that does happen occasionally) and they might have nothing to do with Trump posting the song (maybe Trump just likes the song)... but...

If they really are emergency action messages, they probably aren't nuclear attack authorization to ballistic missile submarines. But it might (just conceivably) be an attack order to US Ohio class cruise missile attack submarines, at least one of which is believed to be on station in the Indian ocean off the Iranian coast. Each of these nuclear powered submarines carries 154 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles, which could do a lot of damage if directed against bridges, railways and electric power plants.

If I was Iran tonight, I'd be worried.

[Yazata]

Multiple posts on X are reporting atypical radio broadcasts from U.S. Navy E-6B Mercury "Doomsday" aircraft. The US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) networks have started putting out rare 12-group messages. Observations include heavily reduced ADSB/Mode C data, two EAMs (Emergency Action Messages) not prefaced with "Exercise, Exercise, Exercise," and E-6B aircraft flying with their transponders off.

[Yazata]

OK, it's starting to become clearer what all that weirdness last night was. In response to inquiries, Offutt Air Force Base in NE, home base of the US Strategic Command, has confirmed that a nuclear command and control exercise was/is underway. Certainly no mushroom clouds have appeared anywhere.

Details here: https://neetintel.substack.com/p/the-nuc...ning-right

The most dramatic development is that an Iranian cargo ship that failed to turn around when ordered to do so by a US Navy destroyer, was fired upon and disabled and then seized by US Marines.

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Touska photographed years ago in Hong Kong

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