Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

Unconfirmed reports that all aircraft have been evacuated from Al Udeid air base in Qatar, which is heavily used by the United States and occasionally by the UK as well.

President Trump has been at the G7 meeting in Canada, but left a day early this afternoon. Before he left, he told reporters, "I want to see no nuclear weapon in Iran, and we’re well on our way to making sure that happens.” Asked if he believed Israel could suppress the nuclear threat posed by Iran without U.S. help, Trump responded: “It’s irrelevant. Something’s going to happen.” And “We will do something after leaving the G7.”

The President has called an urgent meeting of the National Security Council for this evening as soon as he arrives back from Canada. Vice President JD Vance, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other top officials have been seen arriving at the White House. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the US military to be prepared for combat against Iran, when and if the President gives the green-light.

And Trump, the master troll, is at it again:

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And Iranians have been doing exactly that for several days. Highways leading out of Tehran are choked with cars.

I'm still not 100% convinced that the US plans to enter the war on the side of Israel. All of this might be pressure being applied to soften the Iranians up before negotiations. But it's looking more and more likely that something really is happening.

The question then is whether the US goes big or small. Going small might simply be an attack on the Fordow uranium enrichment plant with strategic bombers (B-2's or B-52's carrying MOPs). The rest might just be a defensive posture in case the Iranians counterattack American forces. Going big might be joining Israel's efforts to destroy the Iranian military, security services, and hopefully bring about regime-change.

Unclear at this point.

[Yazata]

The US National Security Council is meeting in the White House Situation Room as I write this. US strikes against Iranian nuclear sites is "on the table".

Reuters is reporting that US fighter jets are headed towards the Middle East. There are photographs of US aerial refueling aircraft leaving RAF Lakenheath in England, each one accompanied by four F-35A's, all being ferried in the direction of the Middle East. This appears to be happening at multiple air bases around Europe, with aerial refueling tankers departing accompanied by F-35's, F-15's and F-16's.

Unclear whether US aircraft are currently in Iranian air space. My guess is no.

The Iranian internet is about 75% down and Iran appears to be under major cyber attack by Israel or the US.

The scale of Israeli air attacks appears to have increased. My speculation is that some of those US aerial refueling aircraft that left the US a couple of days ago are now assisting Israel to operate more aircraft at long distance as well as allowing Israeli jets to remain over Iran longer without running short of fuel. The Israeli Defense Force says that 60 Israeli planes are over Iran.

All ships at Naval Support Facility Bahrain in the Persian Gulf have put to sea. I'm guessing that is to make them harder to target if Iran launches a retaliatory strike after whatever might happen in coming hours.

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nsNS

[stryder]

To be honest the language used will point at the US being involved even if not.

No mention of the MAGA concerns of a Republican in Office that starts a war... since that wasn't an objective when voted in.

However if Trump did have use force and oust the Iranian leadership, he should at least make sure he pushes a message of:

"Putin, Your next!"

As having the one situation cleaned up could well pressure the other situation at least to a Ceasefire table (unless there is a better option).

[Yazata]

The National Security Council meeting at the White House has concluded.

Israeli media is reporting that the US will enter the war. Not clear whether it's true or how they know it if it is ("sources" and leaks at the Israeli end perhaps). These Israeli media outlets seem to expect US strikes tonight, their time. Which means the next few hours.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in a meeting with his top cabinet ministers for the last two hours.

[Syne]

However if Trump did have use force and oust the Iranian leadership, he should at least make sure he pushes a message of:

"Putin, Your next!"

As having the one situation cleaned up could well pressure the other situation at least to a Ceasefire table (unless there is a better option).

Only a child would suggest one nuclear power try to unseat another.

[Yazata]

To be honest the language used will point at the US being involved even if not.

Yeah, sounded that way to me too.

No mention of the MAGA concerns of a Republican in Office that starts a war...

There's quite a bit of talk about that here in the States. Vice President JD Vance addressed it directly:

https://x.com/JDVance/status/1934996183702704404

"Look, I'm seeing this from the inside, and am admittedly biased towards our president (and my friend), but there's a lot of crazy stuff on social media, so I wanted to address some things directly on the Iran issue:

First, POTUS has been amazingly consistent, over 10 years, that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Over the last few months, he encouraged his foreign policy team to reach a deal with the Iranians to accomplish this goal. The president has made clear that Iran cannot have uranium enrichment. And he said repeatedly that this would happen one of two ways--the easy way or the "other" way.

Second, I've seen a lot of confusion over the issue of "civilian nuclear power" and "uranium enrichment." These are distinct issues. Iran could have civilian nuclear power without enrichment, but Iran rejected that. Meanwhile, they've enriched uranium far above the level necessary for any civilian purpose...

Meanwhile, the president has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens.

He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. That decision ultimately belongs to the president. And of course, people are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy.

But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue. And having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people's goals. Whatever he does, that is his focus."

Vance almost comes out and announces what the US decision was when he says that Iran can't have uranium enrichment and that can be accomplished either the easy way or the "other way". Then he talks about how attempts were made to negotiate a solution while indicating that the Iranians refused to give up uranium enrichment.

Which only leaves the "other way".

[Yazata]

Still no sign of US military action in Iran.

Large explosion a few hours ago southeast of Tehran. Appears that this was an Israeli airstrike on the Khojir guided missile factory that produces many of the missiles that the IRGC uses and supplies to proxies like the Houthis.

Highways out of Tehran are jammed bumper to bumper with people trying to flee the city. Photos of streets in the center show many of them deserted. Even people who haven't fled appear to be staying well away from government buildings/bomb magnets.

We are starting to see anti-government demonstrations in Tehran with crowds burning pictures of the ayatollahs. The fact that they would dare to do that in wartime might be indication that they sense the regime weakening.

There are photos of Iranian teenagers gathered on apartment building rooftops to watch the city being attacked. Some of them seem to be treating it like a party.

The Khojir aerospace plant:

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[stryder]

However if Trump did have use force and oust the Iranian leadership, he should at least make sure he pushes a message of:

"Putin, Your next!"

As having the one situation cleaned up could well pressure the other situation at least to a Ceasefire table (unless there is a better option).

Only a child would suggest one nuclear power try to unseat another.

I guess you don't have children.

[Syne]

Then explain to me how the US is supposed to unseat Putin without risking WWIII and possibly nuclear war.
You know, if you've thought it through any further than a child would.

[stryder]

Then explain to me how the US is supposed to unseat Putin without risking WWIII and possibly nuclear war.
You know, if you've thought it through any further than a child would.

The myth of being untouchable would be broken, if those that perpetuate such myths are proven to be touched.