Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[stryder]

Trump has given Iran a deadline of two weeks to surrender.

So an Offensive is about putting the opposition on the back foot from the get go, if you dawdle, you lose your initiative and that can be costly.
So giving a two weeks to RSVP isn't the smartest play unless you've got your intelligence services on overtime watching every rogue nation border and financial transaction.

Thats two weeks to:

• move funds (to buy weapons, hire mercs, encourage lone gunmen etc)
  
• throw a spanner in the works from the UN (Which they've already been trying to do)
  
• try to croon their allies into defensive action should something happen. (Russia/China/Pakistan have already interjected via the UN)
  
• setup something defensive or at the very least make it costly when attacked etc.
  

So it could mean that it's all a ruse or end up being one, as the alternative is costly.

[Syne]

Trump doesn't want to get the US involved, but Iran cannot get nuclear weapons. Israel has take out every other facility except the deep bunker at Fordow, including Iran's ground to air missile defenses. Since Israel is continuing to attack missile sites as Iran exposes them by launching, there's very little chance Iran can rearm within two weeks. The MOAB missile strikes that the US would do on Fordow are not something Iran can even prepare for... without exposing more enriched uranium and missiles to attack, if moved.

Money cannot buy their way out of this within two weeks, Trump doesn't give a crap about the UN, all of Iran's allies have already either signaled they aren't helping (Russia) or remained quiet, and every time Iran launches more missiles they're just exposing more targets for Israel to strike.

[Yazata]

Unconfirmed reports say that B-2 stealth bombers have taken off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Unknown yet how many or whether this is a combat deployment.

More news on this:

The Wall Street Journal, NBC and Reuters have all confirmed that four to six B-2 bombers took off from Whiteman and immediately took on fuel from aerial refueling tankers. This itself is unusual and occurs when the bombers are very heavily loaded.

Then they headed west and again refueled near Hawaii. They are using the callsigns MYTEE11 FLT and MYTEE21 FLT.

Reuters says that "US officials" tell them that the bombers are headed to Guam and that no orders have been given for them to proceed towards the Middle East. (I wouldn't expect them to publicly announce it if they were.)

Meanwhile, Reuters again is reporting that Israel is exploring options for attacking Fordow by themselves if the US doesn't help them. I'm skeptical about how much damage they could do if the Iranian uranium enrichment centrifuges are deep underground along with whatever fissionable material they already have. Unless the Israelis can get in there and destroy all that, the Iranian nuclear weapons program will still be a threat. Destroying buildings on the surface (probably offices, machine shops, electrical supply and stuff like that) will only delay the Iranian bomb.

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[Syne]

I've read that Israel does have the possibility of destroying Fordow, but it would take many more passes with their penetrating bombs in the hopes of reaching the depth of that reinforced bunker.

Maybe in conjunction with a ground operation?

[Yazata]

The United States has struck Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites!

The B-2 movement to Guam appears to have been a very successful diversion while other B-2 bombers were preparing to go without anyone noticing elsewhere. Very good operational security! Caught everyone by surprise!

Communications in Iran are almost completely down nationwide, internet, cell, everything. GPS is jammed throughout Iran. The US appears to have really leaned into a powerful cyber and electronic warfare attack coinciding with the B-2's going in.

Fordow was hit with six Massive Ordinance Penetrator bombs which suggests three B-2's, since they carry two each. Natanz and Isfahan were hit by 30 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles launched by an American submarine. US spokesmen appear to be confident that the attacks were successful in destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program.

All American aircraft are now safely outside Iran.

President Trump will be giving a nationwide TV address at 10 PM EDT

The Iranian state TV network is saying that all the nuclear bases had been evacuated. While they might have been able to move their weapons grade uranium, there's no way that they could have moved all of their enrichment centrifuges.

The big question now is what, if anything, Iran does in retaliation.

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[Syne]

Great job!

[Yazata]

Iran is firing an unknown number of missiles into the Tel Aviv area in reply. Sirens are howling. Interceptor missiles launched, booms in the sky.

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About 25-30 missiles fired and about 10 impacts

about 15 miles north of Tel Aviv

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Tel Aviv suburbs

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[Syne]

They just keep giving Israel justification for further bombings. Not only the missile batteries they expose when they launch but probably those responsible for giving the orders as well. Even if Israel wasn't originally intending to take out the ayatollahs, a continued threat is likely to change that.

[Zinjanthropos]

USA showing some of their might and tactics. Cyber attack was a smart ploy.

I figure boots on the ground will be needed at some point. American boots or Israeli?

[Yazata]

It looks like the US attack might (or might not) have been larger than initially reported. Reports are now saying as many as 14 Massive Ordinance Penetrators which would imply up to seven B-2's.

There's general agreement that they left Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, flew east over the Atlantic, passed southern Spain and Gibraltar, were refueled over the Mediterranean by some of those aerial refueling tankers that flew to Europe the other day, then proceeded on to Iran where they encountered no Iranian air defense. After dropping their precision guided bombs and safely exiting Iranian airspace, they again refueled and flew home.

There's also uncertainty about how completely Fordow was destroyed.

Satellite imagery of Fordow from Maxar showing six MOP entrance holes. That's consistent with the earlier report of six MOPs. There's internet speculation that the grey coloration on the ground might be concrete dust, which would suggest that the MOPs did reach the underground tunnels.

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From Planet Labs, with outline of the underground tunnels superimposed

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Isfahan

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Natanz

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