Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

Talk is that the United States is still considering what kind of aid to give Israel when they attack Iran's nuclear program.

Based on what happened last time Israel struck Iran in October, that aid will almost certainly include aerial refueling for Israeli jets along with intelligence sharing, satellite imagery and stuff like that.

It's likely as well that US anti-missile batteries will help defend Israel against Iranian missile attack.

The problem that I see is that the Israelis by themselves probably lack the offensive capability to do fatal damage to the most important hardened Iranian nuclear weapons sites. So for Iran's nuclear weapons program to be destroyed, the US would probably have to participate in the strikes with our most advanced conventional weaponry.

I suspect that whether to do that, and how to do it, is the topic of current discussion and debate within the Administration and the Pentagon.

It's a big part of President Trump's doctrine to keep the US out of foreign wars. And it's another big part that Iran not acquire nuclear weapons. The difficulty seems to be that those two policy objectives might not be achievable at the same time.

[Syne]

Since we're evacuating embassies in the area, I assume we'll, at the very least, give Israel the needed weapons to pull it off.

The US wants to cripple any hopes Iran has of nuclear weapons, we just don't want to start a protracted war ourselves. Israel seems willing and able to do so.

[Yazata]

It's On

Operation Rising Lion

Israeli aircraft are attacking Iran as I write this!

Multiple explosions in the Iranian capital of Tehran. Several of these appear to be targeted strikes on residential high rises and speculation is that Israel is going after high value targets like senior political and military officials. One appears to have targeted Iranian military chief of staff Mohammed Bagheri. (Edit: Israel says that they believe that he is dead.)

Netanyahu gave an address saying that Iran's main uranium enrichment site has been hit. (My understanding is that it's deep underground, so I don't know how Israel could have destroyed it. But Israel must have a plan...) He says the attacks will continue for as long as it takes to eliminate the threat.

Explosions are being reported at the Natanz and Fordow nuclear weapons plants.

Israeli sources are reporting that Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has produced enough weapons grade uranium for 15 atomic bombs and had started assembling it into weapons. That's why Israel attacked.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that the US is consulting with our partners in the region, is not participating in the attacks on Iran and is warning Iran not to attack Americans.

Iranian air space has been closed and many commercial airliners are turning around.

The Israeli leadership is in its bunkers. The entire Israeli population has been warned to stay close to bomb shelters.

[Yazata]

Iranian state media says that Hussein Salami, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been killed. He's the guy who ran all the Iranian proxy armies like the Iraqi Shi'ite militias, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

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The commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian general staff has been killed, as has the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

One of Israel's targets in the first wave of attacks was Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to Iran's "supreme leader" Khamenei and head of the Iranian nuclear program. Still no word on whether Israel succeeded in killing him.

There are rumors, unconfirmed naturally, that Israeli mossad agents and army special forces units are active inside Iran. I'd guess that they are conducting targeted assassinations and providing targeting information for air strikes.

At least five explosions heard in the northwest Iranian city of Tabriz, as the second Israeli wave hits military facilities there.

Americans in Israel are free to make their own security plans, but the US embassy is advising them to shelter in place. Embassy staff have been ordered to shelter in place.

So far, there has been no Iranian counter attack. Perhaps because the Iranian leadership is in a state of confusion right now. Iran is putting out defiant statements though, saying that both Israel and the United States will pay a heavy price.

The initial wave of Israeli attacks seemed to have been tapering off, but a second wave is reportedly being prepared and launched. The Israelis say that they are just getting started. I'd guess that when planes return they are refueled, reloaded with ordinance, perhaps tired pilots are swapped out, and relaunched.

All hospitals in Israel have been placed on the highest state of alert. Some are already moving patients and departments into underground parking garages.

Israel has closed its airspace to all civilian aircraft. All flights in and out are cancelled.

nsNS

[C C]

[...] The Israeli leadership is in its bunkers. The entire Israeli population has been warned to stay close to bomb shelters.

They had better be (just in case intel on Iranian progress was a touch behind). Jerusalem might be too holy and close to the West Bank for even a Muslim state to nuke. But Tel Avia or someplace will still be sufficient to derail a country as small as Israel.

In TV shows since the days of "24" back in the 2000s, you have these terrorist nuclear explosions take place in cities like LA, London, and so-forth... And it's almost as if no big deal, only part of the metropolitan area damaged, no extensive evacuations from surrounding areas due to radiation, etc. A few weeks later, everything almost back to normal. Crazy.

Statement by PM Netanyahu ... https://youtu.be/Vsj5pw4QPls

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Vsj5pw4QPls

[Yazata]

[...] The Israeli leadership is in its bunkers. The entire Israeli population has been warned to stay close to bomb shelters.

They had better be (just in case intel on Iranian progress was a touch behind). Jerusalem might be too holy and close to the West Bank for even a Muslim state to nuke. But Tel Avia or someplace will still be sufficient to derail a country as small as Israel.

Yeah, Israel is so small geographically, that just a small handful of nuclear weapons could effectively wipe it out.

I worry that Israel won't be able to eliminate the fissionable material, which is likely to be well protected deep underground. So that Iran will just be slowed down in its quest to fashion it into a bomb, rather than stopped.

Given the way these initial strikes seemed aimed at the leadership, maybe the Israelis are thinking 'regime change'. We know that the Iranian theocracy is very unpopular with much of the Iranian people and that there have been huge demonstrations in the past that were brutally put down. So if the security services are weakened enough, maybe the people can successfully rise up this time.

If the Iranian government can be made to implode, if it loses its grip on much of the country, maybe Israeli commandos and/or US special forces can be inserted to actually clean out the nuclear sites and take charge of the fissionable material. Either that, or cut off electricity and air ventilation to the tunnels, seal the entrances, and entomb the Iranian bomb technicians along with their uranium.

[Yazata]

Israel's Ben Gurion international airport outside Tel Aviv is closed. All Israeli airlines, including El Al Israel's flag carrier, have temporarily suspended operations and are flying all of their aircraft out of Israel to protect them if/when Israeli airports are targeted by Iranian missiles.

Iranian TV says Israel will be flattened. But there have been no Iranian strikes on Israel to this point and things are still rather peaceful in Israel.

The Israeli air force has conducted over 300 strike sorties and they are continuing. There is a constant flow of jets in and out of Iran.

Israeli embassies around the world have extra security measures in place and have been told to be ready for anything.

Ali Shamkhani, senior adviser to the Iranian "supreme leader", was critically injured in the first wave of attacks and has now died.

The Iranian foreign affairs ministry says: “The aggressive actions of the Zionist regime against Iran could not have been carried out without coordination with and approval of the United States. Thus, the U.S. government, as the main supporter of this regime, will be held responsible for the dangerous consequences of Israel's adventurism.”

[Zinjanthropos]

Sounds as if Israel believes it had 2 options……do nothing and eventually be wiped out by Iran or attack Iran first and survive.

[Syne]

All good news so far. Hopefully the Iranians can keep worse from filling the power vacuum, if or when Israel completely decapitates Iran's leadership.

I was reading that Mossad had a secret drone base setup within Iran, that took out their ground-to-air missile defenses before the attack started.

[Yazata]

When Israeli attacks began last night, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps air force (separate from the regular Iranian air force) convened an emergency meeting of its top commanders. Which the Israelis knew about (damn, Mossad is good!) and hit with an air strike, wiping out the IRGC air force leadership. That might be one reason why we haven't yet seen any Iranian counterattack. Many of Iran's missile and drone forces belong to the IRGC.

Israel does expect an Iranian counterattack though, which might prove to be devastating. Israeli army reservists are being called up and are being organized into countless urban search-and-rescue teams. Soldiers are also being sent to patrol the borders against infiltrators.

The Israelis are boasting that the Natanz uranium enrichment plant is "totally destroyed". I don't believe it though. Satellite photos show scattered buildings and a transformer yard (which probably supplied power to the underground centrifuges) wiped out, but most of the facility is intact.

There's also unofficial talk in Israel expressing hope that now that Israel has softened up Iran, that the US might join Israel and bring in the heavy weapons to collapse the centrifuge galleries for good.

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