Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

In keeping with the buildup theme, at least six US Air Force B-2 stealth bombers have flown from the US to the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian ocean. Israeli observers note that these bombers are capable of attacking highly defended airspace and delivering the massive GBU-57 MOP-Massive Ordinance Penetrator bombs, which might be the only non-nuclear bombs able to collapse Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

Chances are that this is a message being sent from Washington to Tehran that it might be in Iran's interest to reach a deal.

B-2's photographed in the United States (USAF photo)

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[Yazata]

Tension is buildng.

CNN is reporting that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is coming to Washington DC next Monday. Unconfirmed as yet.

And for the last few days, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (the entrance to the Persian Gulf) have been reporting GPS jamming, presumably coming from Iran.

There's also unconfirmed indication that military aircraft from Al Udeid air base in Qatar have also encountered GPS jamming and spoofing seemingly coming from Iran.

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[Yazata]

The "Supreme Leader" of Iran, Ali Khamanei, has placed the Iranian armed forces on "high alert" due to the possibility of an Israeli/US attack.

Reuters is claiming that Iran has issued warnings to Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, warning them that if they allow US and/or Israeli forces to use their bases or overfly their territory in an attack on Iran, then Iran will consider it an act of war.

Yesterday, a US Air Force C-5M strategic heavy-lift transport aircraft from Ramstein in Germany landed at Nevatim air base in southern Israel. Saudi media (Al Arabiya) is claiming that the huge plane was delivering an additional American THAAD antimissile defense battery to Israel (one is already there, crewed by US Army but integrated into the Israeli air defense system) along with two Patriot missile batteries. This remains unconfirmed. Other observers believe that it is more likely that the American plane was just delivering additional missiles for the THAAD battery that's already in southern Israel.

And it is confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be visiting Washington DC tomorrow (Monday).

[Yazata]

Today more than a dozen US Air Force transport planes arrived in various friendly Middle East countries delivering an unknown number of Patriot surface to air missile batteries. Several of the flights reportedly originated in Osan in South Korea indicating that Patriots from Korea are being repositioned.

Netanyahu is in Washington DC. He spent the morning discussing trade, then he met with President Trump in the afternoon. I'm reasonably certain that various military topics were discussed.

The Iranians refuse to negotiate with the Americans. But indirect talks are happening with Oman serving as intermediary. Unfortunately, those indirect talks appear to be going nowhere. Which isn't surprising, since Iran is so close to nuclear weapons it's hard to imagine them ever giving them up.

So the US appears to be exerting pressure with military movements - carrier strike groups, B2 bombers with the world's largest bunker buster bombs, and anti-aircraft and anti-missile missile batteries.

I bet the US is offering Iran lucrative trade deals too. Classic carrot-and-stick.

But I don't expect it to work, Iran isn't going to give up their atomic bombs.

[Yazata]

The USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East and is located in the Arabian sea off the coast of Oman

It's carrying the new(ish) F-35C stealth fighters

[Yazata]

The French Navy has released dramatic video of one of their Aquitane class frigates under Houthi drone attack. It looks pretty intense. This is real combat out there in the Red Sea.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1913147259174199497

Strangely, the French are trying to engage drones with their main gun, a 76mm OTO Melara. This gun can fire either guided or unguided rounds. Unguided rounds would seemingly be of little use against fast moving drones. (Much more effective against other ships.) They do appear to have hit one drone, but a second zips right past the frigate's bridge. They are very lucky it missed.

The US Navy would have used a Close In Weapon System (CIWS), a super-fast firing machine gun that fills the air in front of the drone with lead.

[Yazata]

The Houthis can (kind of) claim a US F-18, which fell overboard from the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman while the ship was maneuvering violently while under Houthi drone attack. (Carriers can maneuver violently?) Luckily all crew are accounted for.

Reportedly the aircraft and the tractor towing it were on one of the elevators that lifts planes from the hanger deck to the flight deck. Standard procedure is to avoid sharp turns while planes are on the elevator and to avoid using the elevator during maneuvering. But the Captain or the OOD (Officer of the Deck) has the authority to order the ship to make sudden moves when it is necessary to protect the safety of the ship.

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[Yazata]

And the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, one of their most important, has been obliterated by a huge explosion. The Iranians say ~1000 casualties, dead and wounded.

Drone video in the X post below. (Watch on full screen with the sound on. It's mind boggling.) Note the giant crater and the total devastation. It almost looks like a small nuclear weapon went off.

Initial indications are that the US and Israel weren't responsible. The explosion appears to have been the result of mishandling of a shipload of chemical ingredients for solid rocket fuel, imported from China.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1916944843680424163

It reminds me of that giant Beirut explosion a few years ago.

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs

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[Yazata]

While everyone is focused on the LA riots, rumors are swirling of immanent war in the Middle East.

President Trump had a secret meeting with America's top generals and admirals at Camp David a few days ago. When asked what it was about, all the White House would say is 'Very Important Stuff'.

Now today, the US has apparently started evacuating military dependent families throughout the Middle East/Persian Gulf area. The US Embassy in Baghdad Iraq is being evacuated as well.

Asked today about the evacuations, President Trump just said "You'll have to see, thank you". Asked again later, he said "Well, they are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place, and we'll see what happens. Iran can't have a nuclear weapon, very simple.”

The US has also ordered all American embassies in striking distance of Iran, including those in the Middle East and parts of Eastern Europe and North Africa, to convene emergency action committees and send cables back to D.C. about what measures they are taking to mitigate risks.

Israeli sources report movements of additional air defense missile batteries around Israel.

So speculation is getting much louder that Israel (but perhaps not the US) is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear program. If it happens, it's expected to happen in the next few days. The US is still having negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, though the next meeting scheduled for this weekend in Oman appears unlikely to happen due to "rising tensions".

My Machiavellian speculation: The talks have predictably been going nowhere, since there's no way Iran will give up nuclear weapons which would make it a regional superpower. So there's a possibility that the US is using Israel to exert pressure on Iran. 'Look, we don't want them to hit you, but we can't stop them. So if you don't agree to give up nuclear weapons, then things could get ugly'. I don't expect the Iranians to fold though.

On the other hand, I'm not convinced that Israel alone has the conventional capability to destroy Iran's nuclear program. It's well dispersed around the large country and many of the uranium enrichment centrifuges are deep underground. Only the US could exert the necessary force over the full breadth and depth. So it's unlikely that Israel would try it unless the US is participating as well.

The Washington Post reports, " 'We are watching and worried,' said one senior diplomat in the Middle East. 'We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.' "

Iran certainly seems to think so.

The New York Times is reporting that Iran is readying hundreds of ballistic missiles for a counter strike at Israel similar to their October 2024 attack. It's unknown whether Iran has any deliverable nuclear warheads, probably not but it remains a possibility. And if Israel is nuked, they will almost certainly nuke Iran.

Al Arabiya is reporting that Iran is delivering additional missiles to pro-Iranian Shi'ite paramilitaries in Iraq. These Iranian proxies are also thought to be preparing to attack US assets in Iraq. (Hence the Embassy evacuation.)

CBS News is reporting that Israel is "fully ready" to launch an operation into Iran.

The leader of one of the Iraqi Shi'ite militias put out a defiant statement a few hours ago that seems to be suggesting that if war breaks out, the Shi'ite militias will try to overthrow the government of Iraq.

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[Yazata]

In perhaps related OSINT (open source intelligence) news, pizza parlors close to both the Pentagon and the White House are experiencing a huge surge in very late (eastern time) orders, perhaps suggesting additional staff securing grub prior to pulling all-nighters.