Russian Ukraine Invasion

Yazata Offline
US and Ukrainian delegations met today in Geneva. The Ukrainian delegation was reportedly headed by Ukraine’s Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. US participants included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, State Dept Counselor (Rubio) Michael Needham, US Amb to Ukraine Julie Davis, Deputy NSA Andy Baker, NATO Supreme Allied Commander and head of US European Command General Alex Grynkewich and Special Advisor Jared Kushner.

A participant told Jennifer Griffin:

“Talk this morning started with coordination meetings at the Intercontinental hotel. Most of those were unilateral and we had some bilateral talks. As the day progressed the Ukrainians and US delegation got together to have detailed discussions about the peace agreement. It was productive and even conclusive in some areas. There’s a formal meeting between the two delegations where they will be ironing out the details of the agreement.”

After the meetings concluded, Rubio addressed the press and said that he believes it was the “most productive and meaningful meeting so far.”

CBS News is reporting that U.S. and Ukrainian officials are discussing a potential trip by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington this upcoming week, as part of a serious push by President Donald J. Trump to achieve an agreed-upon peace settlement in Ukraine by Thanksgiving, though officials say the trip is dependent on the outcome of today’s peace negotiations in Geneva.

Which apparently are making at least some progress.
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confused2 Offline
The BBC's correspondent Steve Rosenberg reports on what the Russian papers are saying ..

Extracts ..

Quote:If an agreement is signed it won't be executed on the ground since this is only possible if there occupational patrols on the streets of Kyiv. So we continue fighting.

Quote:A future clash seems inevitable unless during the "breather" one of the participants is so weakened by internal turmoil that it exits the battlefield without war.

https://x.com/i/status/1992868169464402326

Steve Rosenberg
https://x.com/BBCSteveR
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C C Offline
Halperin: Some Trump officials "very optimistic" there'll be Ukraine peace deal, and Maduro out by 12/31
https://youtu.be/t0P5xjneNfc

VIDEO EXCERPT: So where this goes next is a little unclear, and there's lots of attention on the chaos -- of whose plan it was and how it's being adjusted, and of course how much the President is putting pressure on Ukraine. Back on Truth Social on Sunday, his saying that the war is Ukraine's fault and the Ukrainians better make this deal.

So is there a deadline on Thursday? How much pressure, on what the Europeans are saying? But the momentum is towards a deal. And whether the White House has planned all this out -- good cop, bad cop -- and floating the plan, changing the plan -- I don't know whether it's purposeful.

But there are people in the administration who are very optimistic that there's going to be a peace deal by the end of the year. Maybe not by Thanksgiving, but perhaps by Christmas.

And increasing pressure on Venezuela and increasing talk that Maduro will be out also around the same time. Imagine, and I'm not predicting it, but imagine if there's a peace deal that the Ukrainians accept. That seems like under the circumstances the best available on offer, and that Madura is removed without the loss of American life.

People say Donald Trump is currently on all this foreign policy emphasis that is threatening to disappoint or anger his America first coalition.

But again, Trump has never been against aggressive use of American power and even military force overseas. As long as there's no loss of American life and as long as US interests are being served. And clearly, American interests are served by ending this war between Russia and Ukraine. Obviously, Maduro being replaced by someone friendly to the United States would be a positive...

https://youtu.be/t0P5xjneNfc

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/t0P5xjneNfc
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Yazata Offline
Lots of unconfirmed reports are swirling after the US/Ukraine meeting in Geneva.

The meeting seems to have involved using the 28-point plan, which was drawn up in consultation with the Russians and basically consisted of what Russia would agree to, as a basis for negotiations with the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians seem to have proposed multiple changes to the plan to make it something that they are willing to agree to. Reportedly the plan no longer consists of the same 28 points as reported earlier.

But nobody is saying anything officially and all this is based on rumors and "sources".

Now the big rumor (it's being reported by Reuters, the AP and CBS News) is that US Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll is meeting (as I write this) with a Russian delegation in the United Arab Emirates to officially present the Geneva-adjusted plan to Russia. Those talks in Abu Dhabi started last night and have been going all day today.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will say only that Russia is in possession of the latest draft of the plan, but said Russia got it from "unofficial sources" (Russian intelligence?) and not directly from the US or Ukraine. “Our American colleagues have not yet provided us with the version the media are speculating about,” Lavrov said in Moscow. (That's reportedly happening right now in Abu Dhabi.)

Lavrov also did not concretely answer whether reports on the alleged Abu Dhabi talks were real or not, but did offer, “we have permanent channels of communication with the Americans.” The Russian news agency Tass is reporting on the Abu Dhabi talks.

Lavrov appeared to indicate that Moscow was pleased with the pace of the ongoing talks. He described the current state of the peace agreement, which is reportedly being continuously edited as negotiations continue, as positive in the eyes of the Russian government. “Our assessments remain in effect in that the key provisions of Trump’s plan are based on the understandings reached in Anchorage during the high-level Russia-US meeting in August,” Lavrov said. “We welcome the fact that these principles are enshrined in the plan.”

Reports surfaced late on Monday that Ukraine had agreed to the latest modified version of the peace proposal that emerged over the weekend from Geneva, so American diplomats were now trying to convince Moscow to sign on. “The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal,” an anonymous U.S. official supposedly told ABC News on Tuesday. “There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal.”

The big question there is whether Kyiv agreed to "the peace deal" or "a peace deal" substantially different than the 28 points. Zelensky might feel that he has to agree to something, so as not to appear to be the obstacle to peace.

Prior to the Geneva meeting, Zelensky made an address on Ukrainian media saying, “Now is one of the most difficult moments in our history,” Zelensky declared. “Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice: either the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Either the difficult 28 points, or an extremely difficult winter — the hardest one — and further risks.”

After the Geneva meeting, Ukrinform is reporting that the 28 points are down to 19 points. Given the fluid nature of the talks, it is unclear which points remain in the proposed agreement or precisely how they are worded.

“We will absolutely not give the enemy any reason to say that Ukraine does not want peace,” Zelensky asserted last week, “that Ukraine is disrupting the process or that Ukraine is not ready for diplomacy. That will not happen.”
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Yazata Offline
Reports/rumors are swirling that Russia rejects the 19 point version of the peace plan that incorporates Ukraine's demands.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is said to have said, "“After Anchorage, when we thought these understandings had already been formalized, there was a long pause. And now the pause has been broken by the introduction of this document. . . A whole series of issues there, of course, require clarification”.

The vagueness of the 28-point plan's security guarantees for Ukraine were widely seen as problematic and more specificity was expected. The guarantees definitely needed to be toughened up in some way that would keep Russia on board, short of NATO membership. But speculation now is that the 19-point plan includes Ukraine joining NATO (which was the reason why Russia originally attacked in 2022) and eliminates any cap on the size of the Ukrainian military. And Russia, with good reason, sees Ukrainian NATO membership as an unacceptable threat to Russian national security. Much as Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War would have been viewed. The prospect of Soviet troops on the southern US border would have drawn a military response too.
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Yazata Offline
The Institute for the Study of War's assessment of the Pokrovsk 'cauldron'. ISW's assessments seem to be based largely on Ukrainian briefings in Kyiv.


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And the view of Rybar, an independent Russian military blog with very good contacts within the Russian army. Note that the Rybar map is from two days earlier than the ISW map, which might explain why Rybar still shows the Ukrainians maintaining positions in the south end of Myrnohrad.

Both sources agree in showing the Russians trying to seal the entrance to the pocket, but that they haven't done so completely. The increasingly besieged Ukrainian defenders could still fight their way out, but they would encounter Russian opposition in doing so. It might only be a few days before the Russians have them well and truly trapped.

The Ukrainian command really needs to think about ordering their withdrawal while they still can. Continuing to defend these hopeless positions seems increasingly pointless and just multiplies dead and wounded needlessly.


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[Image: G6iSVIfXEAAxQs7?format=jpg&name=medium]

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