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Russian Ukraine Invasion

Kornee Offline
(Feb 1, 2023 10:07 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: Is climate change (warmer winter) helping the Ukrainians? I would think the weapons at their disposal work in all kinds of weather. Seems to me that strategy wise, the Ukrainians have the edge which to me overshadows any weather predicaments.
They 'have the edge' because they were long chosen in advance as Grand Chessboard pawns, purposefully fed with all the high tech 'Western' i.e. principally US mustered surveillance and 'discounted' high tech gear utilizing such, 'freely' available.
Just who is expected to foot the final bill is a bit of a mystery. It for sure won't be the shareholders in the highly lucrative taxpayer funded US 'defense' industries that's for sure. Oh vey!

Of course it helps much that Russian military has proven to be atrociously inept. That is changing, as tactics inevitably adapt like an eerie (kind of inverse) echo of how Operation Barbarossa progressed in WW2.
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confused2 Offline
Global warming .. 2 degrees centigrade by 2300 is about 0.025 degrees (0.08 F) per year .. unless they are expecting a really long war this probably won't affect things very much...
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Kornee Offline
(Feb 2, 2023 12:17 PM)confused2 Wrote: Global warming .. 2 degrees centigrade by 2300 is about 0.025 degrees (0.08 F) per year .. unless they are expecting a really long war this probably won't affect things very much...
Have you added two centuries on purpose? Isn't that 2 degrees C rise supposed to be the 'if we do nothing about it' or 'this is the most we can allow' projection by the year 2100 i.e. ~ 77 not 277 years hence?
Amusingly (not really!) what helped the USSR back in 1941-42 was having the coldest Russian winter for ~ 40 years.
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confused2 Offline
(Feb 2, 2023 01:20 PM)Kornee Wrote:
(Feb 2, 2023 12:17 PM)confused2 Wrote: Global warming .. 2 degrees centigrade by 2300 is about 0.025 degrees (0.08 F) per year .. unless they are expecting a really long war this probably won't affect things very much...
Have you added two centuries on purpose? Isn't that 2 degrees C rise supposed to be the 'if we do nothing about it' or 'this is the most we can allow' projection by the year 2100 i.e. ~ 77 not 277 years hence?
Amusingly (not really!) what helped the USSR back in 1941-42 was having the coldest Russian winter for ~ 40 years.
Don't know where the 2300 came from (2023?). 0.025 degree per year for 80 years is 2 degrees (centigrade). Might be less, might be more. Either way probably not worth keeping a war going until the weather improves - it might get worse - there's no way to know.


Russian army officer admits: 'Our troops tortured Ukrainians'
Quote:Konstantin Yefremov, the most senior officer to speak openly, told the BBC in an exclusive interview Russia now sees him as a traitor and defector.
At one site in southern Ukraine, he said "the interrogations, the torture, continued for about a week".
"Every day, at night, sometimes twice a day."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64470092
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RainbowUnicorn Offline
(Feb 1, 2023 10:07 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: Is climate change (warmer winter) helping the Ukrainians? I would think the weapons at their disposal work in all kinds of weather. Seems to me that strategy wise, the Ukrainians have the edge which to me overshadows any weather predicaments.

western military technology is vastly more advanced than russian military technology

keep in mind billions of dollars has been stolen by the russian political and military leadership which should have gone into advancing russian technology, plus the russian ideology that human wave/suicide attacks are more important than technology advancement.

the weapons that have advantage in boggy weather is the large wheeled vehicles which Western powers have.

the russian military is a failure & its brutality towards everyone shows in that with their torture, rape & murder & blatant daily war crimes.

The basic analogy applies in that it requires more resources to take territory than it does to defend territory.

Tanks which spear head advancement in taking territory can not operate in heavy mud & a lot of the land is farmed fields which turn to mud very quickly so there is a break even point between freezing, mud and dry soil/ground where tanks can operate.
western technology has the edge the longer the war goes on the greater that edge gains in over all advantage.
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RainbowUnicorn Offline
can reaper drones intercept cell phones ?
surely there must be a pod that can be designed which can be put on a reaper drone which picks up active cell phones regardles of cell phone towers being turned off
so it acts like a tower and pings all the cell phones it can find.

would be fabulous for locating orc concentrations in the occupied zones.
then using GLSDB which will be a game changer targeting command centers and supply dumps and infantry rally points/Orc concentrations/barracks.
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RainbowUnicorn Offline
ive said it before but i will say it again because it now has proof of value
ukraine needs to directly target the 3rd line of russians who hold the front lines from retreating.
this is a job for artillery and drone recon
crush the 3rd line and the front line will abandon the front and the 2nd line will run in chaos

the rear defensive 3rd line who hold the conscripts at gun point is where i think the strength is in the russian lines
hammer them.
but use drones to locate them 1st then artillery
dedicate some drone recon and artillery to just locating and hammering the 3rd line continuously.

the front line and 2nd line appear to possibly be getting their orders and control from the 3rd line.
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Yazata Offline
There hasn't been much dramatic movement in the front lines in recent days. The situation in Bakhmut continues to slowly deteriorate. The Russians (particularly Wagner which seem to be their best fighting forces) are advancing slowly north and south of the city. The Ukrainian briefings tend to deny that Bakhmut is being flanked and gradually encircled, but even the British MoD acknowledges it.


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[Image: FoLyDCBXoAIk2X_?format=jpg&name=medium]



This map is from an independent Russian channel. It might actually be a more accurate picture of what's happening in Bakhmut than all the maps that show the Ukrainian version, which is very reluctant to admit setbacks and tends to exaggerate advances. The thing to note here is the Russian advance south of Bakhmut towards Krasne and Chasiv Yar. ('Yar' means 'gorge' or 'ravine'.) It puts the Russians in position to exert fire-control on one of the main roads west out of town, which the British appear to acknowledge.

The other Bakhmut news is that the Russians are inside the northeastern part of Bakhmut where fighting is heavy, building to building.

At some point, the Ukrainians might need to think about saving their soldiers and pulling them out of Bakhmut.


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[Image: FoPsQDOXwAESPIb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

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RainbowUnicorn Offline
i think they left it far too long before they withdrew last time. i hope they have learned this time and get out while they can.


i just realized Ukraine needs a few big glass making factories to replace the hundreds of thousands of broken windows.


is Ukraine going to do a tactical withdrawal from Bakmut ?
if they are not then i hope they are urgently sending in more heavy machine guns and artillery.
The Bradlys & MRAT's etc will make a dig difference when they arrive with their machine guns being able to sit in place and fire while taking light arms fire.

highly mobile armored heavy machine guns will make a big difference to be used as defence

need some counter battery fire dedicated to mortar & artillery suppression

i think i would task some of the 777's to the rear lines(3rd line) of Orcs
then have the Caesars & Archers operating between the 777's and the rear lines seeking to get as much depth as possible
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RainbowUnicorn Offline
Orikhiv , above tokmak
it looks like on the map the Orcs have evenly spaced out and possibly in a holding position.
if this is true my guess is these will be moscavites (elites and privileged)sent to a less vulnerable front line and waiting for a big push.

i think they need to be softened up with artillery with good recon.
they have been sitting in set formation for too long.
need to sew some panic into them & start to create a death count to unsettle them ahead of any push they may be getting ready for.
everything long range though.
maybe a drone bombing team to be set as safely as possible dedicated to as deep as possible.
hitting every possible supply point/depot & command post
cut the head off the snake to sew panic


if not already . . .
 i think ukraine needs to get out of bakmuht now as quickly as possible to reinforce chasiv yar
& i would be thinking about a counter offensive below of chasiv ya to push back southern Orc positions then retreat to chasiv yar to fortified positions.
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